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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41476 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:18 AM

I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Recon [Re: pcola]
      #41477 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:19 AM

Quote:

For the first time in days I have to say that the NHC track may be off.. Radar here shows Dennis on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it.




It's almost like they changed the forecast path 'by mistake' at 5AM EDT. I mean, the discussion said there was no change, and it doesn't look like there should have been a change... but, it shifted west some. I really don't understand why they did that.

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Terra Dassau Cahill


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41478 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:19 AM

but cantore is there , it never hits him

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41479 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:22 AM

JK just said it is not a wobble but a true north mvt. Will it last is the question.

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41480 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:23 AM

Looks bad with that movement for Pensacola. Unbelieveable.

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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41481 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:24 AM

It is looking like it is not a wobble but a true turn to the north. May spare Pensacola the brunt. However, Navarre to east of Destin may be the bullseye if this movement continues. Hopefully, everyone has evacuted from these areas. This is going to destroy the roads into and out of many of these areas as the ocean washes out parts of the barrier islands. This is not a storm to be riding out.

--------------------
Jim


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Still NNW [Re: Rasvar]
      #41482 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:29 AM

Still moving NNW....there was a wobble due north, but it appears to be starting another wobble back nw in the last few radar frames. Still think landfall is further east than forecast..probably around Ft Walton/Destin.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: Dennis' North Movement [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41483 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Quote:

I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all.




Definite northerly movement the last 2 hours. Take a look at the color infared - the CDO on the west side of the storm is narrowing and the cloud shield is becoming asymmetrical. A sure sign of upper level W-SW shearing. This is good and bad news. Good in that it may start to weaken him a little, bad in that it may result in a consistent N or perhaps even a N-NE movement to the coast. Looks bad between Ft Walton Bch and Panama City.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41484 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Not wishing this on anyone; but a best case scenario might be if the center can go in around Grayton Beach or Seagrove Beach. This area would leave the least population and buldings at risk to the core of the storm. Damage would still be severe and Panama City would be hit pretty hard. No really good place for this monster to go except away.

--------------------
Jim


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL 27.47N 82.53W
Re: Still NNW [Re: jth]
      #41485 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

I agree, just ever so slightly moving back NNW.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41486 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:32 AM

morning all.... I still think it has a slight westerly component to the motion and not due north, not looking at the latest radar loops.... my opinion only.... looks to be heading directly to Pensacola... what side of the eye wall it gets yet to be determined.... eye wall on radar looks to be about 10 miles or so in diameter, which is where the 145 miles per hour winds would be.... not a very good place to be so if you have any change of being in it, and you can leave, I'd highly recommend it .... or you better be in a damn strong building or house...

tides at Biloxi look to be about normal, however, we have these glassy two foot waves breaking.... this only occurs with an approaching strong cane off to our SE....

good luck to all .....


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StormKrone
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 34
Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.30N 81.60W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41487 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:33 AM

Hi gang,

Long time...no see.. Just watching, waiting, and reading from over here in Tallahassee..where it is just overcast and rainy.

Have to say, been waiting for the Cantore comments .<g> Thank you!!!

To everyone closer to this monster.... my heart, my prayers and my best wishes are with you. Take care, because I am going to be counting noses when all this is over..

Dee, the StormKrone


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41488 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:34 AM

Wanted to add my concerns and prayers for all who have been and will be effected by Dennis.

Any good thing is often bad for someone. If Dennis is moving North then some of the larger Population centers still recovering from Ivan could be spared. I know that does not say much for Ft Walton, Destin and other areas East.

Again my prayers to you all.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41489 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:35 AM

Good morning everyone, I hope all got some sleep because this could be a bumpy day...

I have to agree with some of the posters that the movement is more northerly rather than a NNW movement....But if Dennis continues a Northerly track and stays that course inland, there's gonna be a flurry of changing watches and warnings further inland from Montgomery to Atlanta.

One thing I'm wondering, what time is this monster expected to make landfall and how close to high tide is it supposed to hit?

Again it bears repeating, if you are to the east of the eye, it is imperative to still watch this storm like a hawk as the right front quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous and causes possible tornadoes and heavy rains...

Also tidal flooding in Madiera Beach, FL.....

God Speed to everyone in PCB to Moblie and everyone in the path....

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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 AM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41490 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:36 AM

it still has time to do the ERC thing and spin down to manageable levels. intensity changes with these strong ones are unpredictable... it would be a lot nicer to see the winds drop 20 mph before landfall. that 1mb pressure fall since the last advisory suggests that it's near the upper threshold it can get to... hopefully the only thing that Dennis can do from here is weaken. i'm not wanting to see that perpendicular impact effect that accelerates the winds and tightens the core that joe b talks about. not at all.
God forbid that the core moves over pensacola. lots more to break there than port charlotte.
we'll probably have an emily tomorrow, in other news. misery loves company.
HF 1336z10july


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: ten hours [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41491 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:40 AM

there goes cantore again,just on live, warning ms and al that the sky will fall upon landfall, he's more doomsday than the Accuweather guy joe b. NHC has surprised me and nailed this forcast thus far, I'm sticking with them and agree with the soon to see west nw wobble back

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: ten hours [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41492 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:44 AM

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in this area. For my job, I handle computer systems in my companies offices up in the Florida Panhandle. I have been there after almost all of the major hurricanes since Erin to hit the area. Opal and Ivan were the worst I had seen. I fear this storm may push past them. Fortunately, I just about everyone I know has evacuated to either Tallahassee or Jacksonville.

--------------------
Jim


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41493 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 AM

is this new data ?

URNT12 KNHC 101207
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/11:43:00Z
B. 28 deg 23 min N
086 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2515 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 134 deg 131 kt
G. 49 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 21 C/ 3008 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1604A Dennis OB 19
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #41494 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:47 AM

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41495 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:48 AM

down to 131kts....eyewall replacement?

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