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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41496 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:50 AM

That is not a complete report. Note the highest winds parameter and lowest pressure is marked as "N"

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Jul 10 2005 08:52 AM)


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41497 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:52 AM

pressure drop 1 mb too

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41498 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:53 AM

looks like a right hook

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41500 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:57 AM

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.

--------------------
Jim


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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Frank P]
      #41501 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:58 AM

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...




I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41502 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Quote:

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.




run the various loops and you'll see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 386
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41503 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

yes run the MM5 and u can see them both, the first, 98l is gonna be a whopper

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41504 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the NHC said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41505 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

think daniel said traffic on 98 and 49 from wilmer to hattiesburg and on up towards jackson was not too heavy

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41506 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

TWC just mentioned a very important item that should be repeated.
Do not run a generator indoors. It is not even wise to run it in an attached garage. However, if you do run one in an attached garage(which I do sometimes), make sure you have a CO2 detector above the door to your garage and in other areas of the house(which I also do).

--------------------
Jim


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
morning all [Re: Frank P]
      #41507 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

The buoy south of Pensacola has started to report 30' wave heights.

Unfortunately the buoy south of Dauphin Island, which you'd really like to see, doesn't seem to be reporting.

Wow this storm is still intensifying...I can't get a handle on what it will be doing in the hours just before landfall when it has had all day over the Gulf.

NHC said the only thing to slow it down was cooler water temps. Yesterday though showed warmer temps right along the shore (I used Oceanweather because it is easy to read with all the different shades of orange). That showed yesterday a band of warmer temps above and around the barrier islands and to the west of the hurricane S of LA. Maybe that isn't a good SST map to go by?

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/sst.html

I don't wish this on anyone, but I'm relieved this morning to see the Nward movement because otherwise MS coastline would be in trouble. Still awful that someone has to get hit with this storm.

Waiting to see the first daylight sat view...looks like very white cloud tops around the eye, the buzzsaw signature, very impressive eye.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41508 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:01 AM

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....





Personally I would leave now and head West/NW.


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Pensacola101
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41509 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:03 AM

Local mets are coming on and talking with the NHC, that the north jump will more than likely be a wobble. They are saying that stronger storms are forming on the west side of the eye and that should pull it back to a NW, NNW trend and that is not good for us here in Pensacola. This will put the eye directly onto us.

I hope they are wrong though.


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41510 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:04 AM

I would say if they do evacuate, west would be the way to go. If they are going to go, they have to levae now. I would not suggest leaving an hour from now. All the bridges will probably be closed shortly. So going Northwest would be best.

--------------------
Jim


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41511 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:05 AM

joe's cocky and all, but he's tops when it comes to pattern recognition. yeah, we're gonna be talking about that low at 40w a heck of a lot after Dennis is up near paducah.
speaking of which, more globals than not are showing Dennis doing a loop/stall scenario inland over the lower midwest and midsouth. this thing will probably be causing flooding all week. that could end up being just as big of a story.
HF 1405z10july


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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41512 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:05 AM

Quote:

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...




I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....




Go west as far as you can


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41513 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:06 AM

Well I don't think anyone knows exactly where this is going to land, and you wouldn't want to be in Grand Bay if there was any chance of flooding, that's for sure.

If the eye lands to the east, then it will mainly be a lot of wind to deal with.

If the eye lands closer or to the west (looks unlikely now) then much better not to be in Grand Bay, due to storm surge. I just hope everyone got out of that area, and also Foley, Gulf Shores area.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: ten hours [Re: pcola]
      #41514 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:07 AM

Quote:

Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the NHC said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready.





It was forecasted as a Cat 3 possible Cat 4 last night at 5PM. No one had an excuse to be in that area over night, let alone today. How can people not be ready?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
It's not to late to leave Mobile~8 AM [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41515 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 AM

Quote:

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....




Two hours ago, last time I checked the roads, traffic was very light...but increasing from the Mobile area...i.e. westbound Hwy 98 into Hattiesburg.
Other option at this point is i-10 west toward New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Houston.


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jr928
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Margie]
      #41516 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 AM

wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon

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