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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Major Category 3 Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon
      #41350 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:23 AM

3:45pm EDT
Dennis has made landfall between Pensacola Beach and Nvarre Beach at 2:25 PM CDT (3:25EDT) as a Category 3 hurricane wind maximum sustained winds of 120mph.


3pm
Recon reports the pressure in the storm has risen to 943mb, signifying some weakening just before landfall as the storm moves onshore. Despite that, the storm should still come ashore with winds near 120mph, slightly higher than with Ivan...but not nearly as bad as it could have been or was predicted. Landfall looks to occur within the next hour near Navarre Beach/Escambia Bay, sparing Mobile once again but devestating the Pensacola/Navarre/Ft. Walton Beach area. More from Thomas Giella in the met blogs below and continual updates on the news talkback & in the chat room.

11:00AM


Dennis' strengthening phase has stopped, now it probably will remain a category 4, or hopefully stay over the cooler water long enough to be a strong cat 3. Still stronger than Ivan at landfall. Landfall will be closer to Pensacola in the mid afternoon.

Hurricane force winds may be felt 150-200 miles inland where it travels through alabama. And gusty conditions even further inland where it tracks. It looks like it will stall out in the Ohio River valley and be a potential flood event there.

9:30AM
Dennis has dropped to 930mb, and holding its strength as a strong category 4 system. It has moved more to the north in the last few bits, but expected to jog west a bit later. However, at this moment it's nitpicking. Folks at and directly east of the landfall will see the worst surge. Hurricane force winds may go inland 150-200 miles.



Some of the image servers on are image server network have gone down, and we are adjusting around that now. The mobile cam will be up as long as we can run it. Bandwidth costs are going to be astronomical this month, donations are appreciated (see link to left) Also we are looking for a colocation facility for our primary server in the Southeast, looking for reasonable rates in the off season, and reasonalbe with spikes such as during hurricane events. Also those with hosting space and the ability to assign IPs to their hosts for our image server mirror network are requested. Anyone who helps will be featured on the bottom of the page.

7:17AM
Overnight Dennis has strengthened into a 145mph hurricane with a pressure of 931mb, less than what Charley was at landfall, and the strongest Hurricane potentially to make landfall in the Gulf in 36 years and the strongest in this area ever recorded, stronger than both Frederick and Ivan.



Today it will make landfall, during the Afternoon, leaving people in the dark overnight to get the back side of the hurricane. For those in the forecasted track path, best of luck and God bless you all.

Also, the tropical wave in the Atlantic is looking to develop soon, although there is no real way to tell yet if it'll be a player or a fish spinner at the moment.

1:30AM
Dennis is back to Category 4 now, with a pressure of 937mb, 1mb less than when it was south of Cuba, so even more strengthening is possible.

Original Update
According to Recon, Dennis is at or near Category 4 Hurricane Strength once again. It's outflow and central dense overcast near the center look very healthy for a hurricane. Hopefully it will peak soon.



The track now takes in slightly west of Pensacola, nearly where Ivan crossed. Deviation to the left or right means a great deal for storm surge behavior, which will likely be more extreme than Ivan, with 12-16 possibly 20 feet of storm surge. Winds will also be an issue, even quite a ways inland. The most extreme of the winds is in a relatively small area around the center of the storm.



The storm is forecast to make landfall during the afternoon tomorrow now. Folks along the area are advised to get some sleep now before the brunt start to arrive n the morning.

The Mobile cam is recording now, the link is below. More will come tomorrow.

The chat link on the left is open throughout the event.

Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.

Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.

Hopefully this will only last a short time.

Event Related Links

Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar

Eglin AFB Radar

Dennis
MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images
Google Map Plot of Dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis


98L/Area in Central Atlantic
Animated Model Plot of 98L

Webcams, Video, Audio
Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam - Live Video Stream from Mark's HIRT Tahoe HIRT Tower On the coast in Perdido Key: Conditions and Webcam

Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock - Jeff Flock Live Stream!
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Weathervine.com Storm Chasing
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam - Mobile Bay webcam recording will being the AM of the 10th here
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola i streaming live coverage
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama - Streaming Video 10PM
Pensacola Beach Cam 2
Panama City/Destin webcams

WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL .

Police Scanner Streams
Mobile Police - Mobile, AL

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: MikeC]
      #41366 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:37 AM

Good luck everyone. At least this will be the last "Dennis" ever.

Edited by Doombot! (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:44 AM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: Doombot!]
      #41372 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM

Sleep will be very difficult.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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HumanCookie
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: MikeC]
      #41374 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 AM

Man! Pensicola bridge will be like a pancake again.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Doombot!]
      #41375 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:42 AM

Quote:

I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.




Shan, based on the newest Advisory I would get out now. Before traffic gets too bad.
You are in a very low place. Surge would be terrible if the eye were to come in west of Bayou La Batre'.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: danielw]
      #41376 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:43 AM

Teal, I'm watching this like a hawk.... I posted several days ago I felt this could be the second coming of Fredrick, but only stronger.... looks that might be coming to fruition....

Jav, come on by, I'll be up all night and make my decision as to if we'll leave early in the am... got several options on where we can go... still got time... Just want this thing to keep east of me.. ... Fredrick was not all that bad for Biloxi and I think the eye went near the MS/AL line... this could very well happen again... I hope it doesn't get any closer than Pascagoula....

(sorry about the repost but I wanted teal and jav to get the message)


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Frank P]
      #41378 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:47 AM

Well One thing I think we can rule out is that this storm will be a CAT 5.

I dont see that much strenghting where winds will be up to 156.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: MikeC]
      #41379 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:48 AM

Kissy! Are you going to try to leave now? What's going on there - is everyone asleep or are things happening now like letting people know local evacuation shelters like schools? Do you think people will try to get up 63 to Hattiesburg now? If the storm tracks further west that'll flood real early, only leaving I-10 to go east or west.

Listen I have to leave my friend's house and go home but I'll come back on in a half hour and maybe I can give you the phone numbers of my mom and other brother in Moss Point. I wonder if they should consider evac'ing now. By 6 or 7 am the winds will be too high to leave.

My brother with the Sheriff's dept will be on duty starting at 2am this morning until it is over...his wife will be dispatching. Neither of them will be home, they have to stay and work. I don't know if I'll be able to get hold of him because he'll be pretty busy.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: danielw]
      #41380 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:48 AM

Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component....

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Shan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: danielw]
      #41381 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:49 AM

We're a few miles from the water and in a pretty high place. We do have a few businesses around Shell Belt Rd. and Cindy put over two feet of water in them. If I were in that area, I'd be gone!

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
as strong as IVAN [Re: Frank P]
      #41383 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:51 AM

small eye....15 nautical miles wide...

Ivan devastated Pensacola....just tore it up....

a cat 5....don't even wanna think about it..


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
ivan vs Dennis [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #41384 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:55 AM

Ivan came in from the west to east

Dennis is coming in from east to west....

no right hook to spare us this time


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Frank P]
      #41385 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:55 AM

Quote:

Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component....




Frank, I couldn't help but notice that. I wish it were different for everyone. Be ready.

I'm not ruling out hazardous conditions at daybreak. We just clouded over here in Hattiesburg. About 30 minutes ago.

Good luck to all. I'll see all of you in the morning.


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Frank P]
      #41387 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:58 AM

NO Frank..no northerly component...12 miles east of Pensacola in Gulf Breeze...please no north component!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41388 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 AM

Good night guys. I'm praying for everyone on the Gulf Coast.
Please make your preparations and stay safe.
I said in a previous thread and I'll repeat it here.

Things can be replaced, your human life can not be replaced.
Make sure you are in a secure place to ride this one out.

See you on the other side.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41389 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 AM

Dennis a Cat 4 again as of 1AM.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41390 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 AM

pcola, I feel your pain, you guys have gone through more than most should ever have to deal with, its going to go where it wants... we all watch in amazement, and times like this, fear.... what ever happens, I just want to be on that west side.... even at its present track, if it holds, you guys will take a beating in the NE quad... good luck to you and all who will face this beast tomorrow.....

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TDW
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL 30.70N 88.05W
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #41391 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:04 AM

1m EDT update - 135 MPH winds - CAT 4

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #41392 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:05 AM

Dennis now Cat 4...135mph winds

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
937 mb! [Re: Doombot!]
      #41393 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:06 AM

The 1am advisory brings Dennis back to a Cat 4 with 135 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb (27.67). This is 1mb lower than when Dennis was south of Cuba with 150 mph winds. I think by 5 am we may be looking at a 150 mph hurricane again.....

This is becoming a true nightmare....

--Lou


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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
track [Re: Frank P]
      #41394 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 AM

It should be starting to make a more northerly turn now. It has followed the same trajectory for about 24 hours now which would make it hit just to the right of Biloxi without a turn.

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kissy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 20
Loc: Pascagoula, MS
Re: Major Hurricane Dennis to Landfall In the Afternoon [Re: Margie]
      #41395 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

We are going to weather it out. We're as prepared as we can be with all the windows boarded and a generator ready to go! Praying for everyone that will be in the path of this one! Off to bed tonight, be backin the AM

--------------------

Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Shan]
      #41396 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Quote:

We're a few miles from the water and in a pretty high place. We do have a few businesses around Shell Belt Rd. and Cindy put over two feet of water in them. If I were in that area, I'd be gone!




Shan
No matter where you at down in Batre you need to get to high grounds. I know the main St will be under water. I use to live above the old fire station down there and I know what a little thunder boomer will do. And this aint no thunder boomer.


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Larry Lawver
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Oviedo (Seminole Cty) FL 28.89N 81.20W
News From Seminole County FL [Re: MikeC]
      #41397 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Lost at the end of the last thread................

A data point for everyone north, south, east, and west of Oviedo FL in Seminole County: It's eerie quiet here...

We're located just north of the high school for those familiar with the area. We're near the top of the "L" in "Orlando" for those watching the National Weather Service Radar Image from Tampa Bay.

We had one storm band before dusk that barely rated as a normal daily rain. No lightning, no real wind. At this moment, it's cool, damp, and silent outside. It's been overcast all day, but the northwestward skittering low clouds are now gone as well.

We've had no significant weather events here during this regional crisis. Meanwhile, tropical storm events have been reported within twenty miles of here. It reminds me of the aftermath of Charley, when I was dealing with devastation at my house, and my boss who lived five miles away had no damage at all and wondered why I hadn't worked the weekend!

This all meets the higher end of my expectations, because we have not yet repaired all of the damage from Charley. We still have blue tarps over the garage and the southeast side of the house, and probably won't be finished for several more months. Our house is fragile, but it survived Francis and Jeanne without additional damage. Unfortunately, the blue tarps are aging...

There are some bands approaching from the south, and I just hope they continue to spare us.

Thanks to everyone on this board for the spirited discussions that have kept Leslee and me sane during Charley, Francis, Jeanne, and Dennis. For us, FLHurricane.com is one of the most useful places on the Internet. Unlike most Internet blogs, this one has maintained an extraordinary signal to noise ratio!

Regards,

Larry


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: track [Re: superfly]
      #41398 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

The local NW service here in Pcola says the storm could track further west. Stay alert in MS

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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remedios
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: Hollywood, FL
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: pcola]
      #41399 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:09 AM

Weather is windy here on the S E Coast, and I'm feeling a lot of concern and empathy for you folks in the cone. This is not going to be fun for any of you.
Here's wishing you all the best.


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G. J.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Frederick-repost from last thread [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #41400 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:10 AM

This is epic.

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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: track [Re: superfly]
      #41401 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:11 AM

My own Prediction is that I see it going to at least 145 MPH by 5AM..

After that I see it going into a lil colder water and losing some punch.. Hitting landfall at 125-130 MPH.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 337
Loc: Maryland
Re: track [Re: superfly]
      #41402 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:12 AM

Anyone else notice the complete surrounding of the eye by the color purple in the infrared?

Is that a sign that the center is strengthing and deep?

To everyone in the path, you're in our prayers. Just as I wouldn't wish last season on the East coast, I wouldn't wish Dennis on you folks.

Be safe and let us know what's going on.


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: track [Re: tpratch]
      #41403 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:17 AM

Good luck to all in the path of Dennis, and I hope you all stay safe. There's not much else I can say at this point. Whether the landfall occurs at Pensacola further west, this storm looks to do a tremendous amount of damage. Best of wishes to everyone in its path.

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G. J.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: track [Re: tpratch]
      #41404 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:17 AM

Nate, I hope you're correct, but the pro's are saying that there's nothing in the near future that will weaken it, unless it slows down itself, then it would succomb to the cooler waters, but not at 14mph. No?

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: track [Re: tpratch]
      #41405 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:17 AM

The water south of Pcola and Mobile is a bit cooler..also the hurricane winds only extend 40 miles from the center...tight storm,...I am thankful it will hit during the day unlike Ivan...night storms are very frigtening..

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: 937 mb! [Re: recmod]
      #41406 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:19 AM

Quote:

The 1am advisory brings Dennis back to a Cat 4 with 135 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb (27.67). This is 1mb lower than when Dennis was south of Cuba with 150 mph winds. I think by 5 am we may be looking at a 150 mph hurricane again.....




ouch!!!!


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
On another, more local note... [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41407 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:34 AM

Looks like another squall is coming through the metro Orlando area. If this one is anything like the one earlier tonight, it could be quite intense.

Not that this will even compare to what will happen NW of us tomorrow. Interesting to watch, nontheless.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
shelf waters, ERCs, mid-layer dry air, anything... [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41408 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:37 AM

remember three years ago watching lili get up to cat 4 in the gulf, then spin down dramatically before hitting louisiana? that sort of thing can always happen.. there are lots of unexpected internal changes a hurricane can undergo and lose a lot of its punch. i personally still think it will be a cat 3 at landfall. already too far west for my central panhandle idea to work... over between biloxi and pensacola the greatest danger exists now.
just say a prayer that it finds some way to spin down in the next 18 hrs or so. it's happened before, it can happen again.
elsewhere.. 98L's organization and convection are improving some. the system is now near 40w.. it's going to be a depression inside of 48hrs, more likely closer to 24. i'm betting this one will threaten the northeastern caribbean around wednesday/thursday.
the new emergent wave has some model support too. got a feeling that the july net tropical cyclone activity is going to be well above whatever the previous record was. as far as that seventeen named storms i took a stab at back in the fall.. jiminy christmas, i thought it possible, but i'm still slack-jawed at the way things are going so far this season.
HF 0637z10july


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spctymme
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Re: 937 mb! [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41409 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:38 AM

when viewiew the latest IR sat views you begin to notice the dreaded buzz saw formation of the storm, which is a true indicator that this is a very serious and powerful force

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: 937 mb! [Re: spctymme]
      #41410 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:43 AM

Quote:

when viewiew the latest IR sat views you begin to notice the dreaded buzz saw formation of the storm, which is a true indicator that this is a very serious and powerful force





i noticed that....although the most recent shot shows a change. maybe Dennis has peaked out?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kevin]
      #41411 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:45 AM

Anyone have a good Lightning Data links for this area?

Thanks


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spctymme
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Re: 937 mb! [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41412 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:46 AM

we can only hope.....

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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA 28.47N 81.27W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kevin]
      #41413 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:51 AM

Just starting to get squally again southeast Orlando too...the one earlier around 7 pm reminded me all too well of last August. Makes me sick to my stomach to think about what the folks North of here will go through again! We are very lucky .............this time!

Please take Care all those north of here.

PS Found this site after Charley ravaged my home and our City Beautiful last year and just before we were hit with Francis-thanks to everyone who visits here it has been a great help and source along with NHC, etc. of information during these trying times.


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superfly
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 33
Loc: New Orleans
Re: 937 mb! [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41414 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:52 AM

My guess is that it is undergoing an EWRC. That could be very bad news and could mean it would make landfall at the peak of its power tomorrow.

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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: 937 mb! [Re: superfly]
      #41415 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:59 AM

Here's what I don't get. I went to bed after I read the discussion and didn't wait for the new 11p track forcast because the discussion said: "THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY."

I wake up, and see the track forecast shifted: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205821.shtml?3day

... which although it is not shifted much, there is still a western shift. So, why say there is no change when you clearly have a change?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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G. J.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: 937 mb! [Re: Terra]
      #41416 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 AM

When are the new reports expected to circulate?

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Posts: 333
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kevin]
      #41417 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 AM

Just went thru it here in Belle Isle by MCO Airport.. heavy rains for about 15 - 20 minutes, some high winds but I would guess not much higher than 40 mph..

Saw this in the discussion tonight:

"E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS COMBINING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
WEST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM GUADELOUPE AND N-CENTRAL VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-66W."

Is this another system working up a head?


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erimus
Registered User


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Sarasora, FL 27.33N 82.53W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Nate]
      #41418 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:01 AM

I've used this site before. Pretty good...

Lightning Strikes


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Nate
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 40
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: erimus]
      #41419 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:08 AM

Thanks

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G. J.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Nate]
      #41420 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:16 AM

Ha ha, Did someone leave out something in the code when they refreshed the site?????

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: G. J.]
      #41421 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:19 AM

The site just went all screwy about 10 min ago. What's going on?

I rebooted my PC just in case..no change.

Formatting is all screwed up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: G. J.]
      #41422 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:19 AM

OK. I rebooted my laptop.. I thought it was mycomputer.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Nate]
      #41423 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:22 AM

Nate did that help? Because I did the same thing and no change.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Londovir
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: G. J.]
      #41424 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:22 AM

Maybe someone (John?) shouldn't have bragged about being able to even survive a slashdotting....

In all seriousness, though, I'm sacking it in tonight, and even though I can't call myself terribly religious, I will say a quick prayer for those in the path of Dennis. We made it through 3 dingers last year in Lakeland, and we were just winged. I can't even imagine what's ahead in the next 16 hours. Good luck to all and God bless.

--------------------
Londovir


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 937 mb! [Re: spctymme]
      #41425 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:26 AM

Kissy I'm posting this just in case you need the info.

If Dennis tracks to the west of you, please review the civil defense maps to find an area near you that you can go to ride out the storm surge.

Here is the link:

http://www.ms.gov/frameset.jsp?URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.msema.org%2Findex.htm

Page down and click on Evacuation Maps Jackson Co,
then on that new page, at the bottom, maps for both Jackson Co. and Pascagoula.

Then, on the same page, under links, go to Hurricane Evacuation Study, then click on Mississippi study, go down to the Surge Maps paragraph, click on MAPS button,
this will bring you to maps for 1) storm surge, 2) evacuation zone, and 3) evacuation route maps in PDF format which means you'll be able to zoom in.

Note:

Worst case - eye to the west - 20 ft storm surge:

In the western part of the co, it appears that the land right around the I-10 route is above even a CAT 5 storm surge, but only right near the I-10. All south of I-10 will be submerged, and right at the county line, a line of land north of I-10 will be submerged. No buildings there however, just forest for the most part.

In the center part of the county, I-10 will be over submerged land and may not be above water.

In the eastern part of the county, all the land around I-10 will be submerged, even with only a Cat 2.

With a CAT 4 storm surge of 20 ft, ALL of Pascagoula will be submerged. There will be no safe place to go. With CAT 3, very little ground will not be under water, a couple blocks here and there.

If the storm tracks east of you, then you only have to worry about high winds (and we are talking 140mph sustained winds if MOB is hit directly).

Be safe.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Jul 10 2005 02:55 AM)


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palmetto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 23
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Londovir]
      #41426 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:26 AM

As things go, it's not horribly bad here in Tallahassee--and am I ever praying that it stays at just being rain and some wind. Still, my significant other has been running around getting sandbags as one of our friends' apartments is promising to flood (water was already at her patio slab when we went to get her and her cats out of there) and there's even more rain to come.

For those more directly in the path of this monster, my prayers are with you.


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Margie]
      #41427 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:27 AM

nope, didnt help..

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Problems with this site [Re: Nate]
      #41428 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:36 AM

OK so do you think this is a function of the web site and is happening to everyone?

I am getting for the home page no photos, just the header, then below it everything else grey, all the stuff that was on the LH side is in the center, by itself, everything grey.

If there is someone who is seeing the web site with no problems can you please post.

Is there a moderator that can be notified if this is a problem for everyone?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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G. J.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Problems with this site [Re: Margie]
      #41429 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:39 AM

No, I think that when someone updated data on the website, they forgot to enter some code or entered it incorrectly. Everyone is seeing the same thing. But that's just me

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: Problems with this site [Re: Margie]
      #41431 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:46 AM

It's not you. Maybe the server w/ graphics is down. Or is having a bandwidth problem.

Edited by ShanaTX (Sun Jul 10 2005 02:49 AM)


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Sangre Azul
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: Problems with this site [Re: G. J.]
      #41432 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:48 AM

It's the website. The stylesheet (a file that controls some fonts and images) path in the header code is incorrect. It looks like it needs to point to http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stylesheets/flhurricane.css and http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stylesheets/flhurricaneprinter.css . So as to keep this thread on topic, a mod can PM me if you need more info.

Edited by Sangre Azul (Sun Jul 10 2005 02:57 AM)


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cjzydeco
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL 27.68N 80.40W
Re: Problems with this site [Re: ShanaTX]
      #41433 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:49 AM

Yup, it's everyone. Site is probably overloaded or the server could have been zapped. It happens during the big storms sometimes. Mike and the rest of the Admins are on it already, no doubt.

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G. J.
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Problems with this site [Re: cjzydeco]
      #41434 - Sun Jul 10 2005 02:51 AM

What's up with the new update? Guess it's comming out at 4am.

Edited by G. J. (Sun Jul 10 2005 02:56 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Going to get some sleep [Re: G. J.]
      #41435 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:06 AM

I heard back from my brother in Pascagoula MS who just went on duty (Sherrif's Dept) at 2am for the storm. I wanted to stay up to let him know all the news about the new track and intensity.

He'll be on duty probably at least through Mon am with no relief.

He said it's already starting to get windy there.

One of the things he said was that many gas stations in Pascagoula are out of gas. I also heard this was a problem eariler with folks trying to get out of Gulf Shores AL area and that the civil defense folks were trying to get some gas down there. Scary.

I also heard not very many evacuated. My brother said actually that a mandatory evac was issued Friday evening along with a curfew but Kissy said she hadn't heard that. I don't think it got out to everyone, somehow. At the time there was nothing on the TV except Pensacola, FL, etc. with a storm track to hit there, so I don't think many in MS thought an evac was necessary.

I also heard not all evacuated from MOB, I think there are around a half million people and I don't think it would have been possible to evac everyone. Actually the gulf coast is so populated that is the case pretty much everywhere.

Well I'll get a little sleep and catch you all tomorrow.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: latest info [Re: G. J.]
      #41436 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:07 AM

3am forcast/advisory update is out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/100240.shtml

Edited by ShanaTX (Sun Jul 10 2005 03:08 AM)


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Nate
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 40
Re: Problems with this site [Re: ShanaTX]
      #41437 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:10 AM

145 MPH winds... HOLY SMOKES!!!

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Problems with this site [Re: Nate]
      #41438 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:16 AM

Yes and the pressure dropped an additional 3mb to 934...it may still be strengthening.

OK am really going to go to sleep now - had intended to until I realized the 3am advisory would be out.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Problems with this site [Re: Nate]
      #41439 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:19 AM

site is experiencing some problems. not sure what's up, but it appears to be cosmetic only. as long as we can all keep communicating, everything's o.k. if not peachy.
the latest public advisory says the winds are 145mph in the text body and then concludes that they're 140mph. minor inconsistency when you think about it... the winds are just really freakin' strong. the eye hitting just west of either mobile or pensacola are the worse case scenarios i can see here. not to take anything away from pascagoula or biloxi... but the cities on the large bays are at a higher risk for surge, and have more property that can be affected (think most people will get out of dodge).
lets just hope an eyewall replacement cycle spins Dennis down before it comes ashore tomorrow. lili went from 4 down to 2 in about 12 hrs... it can happen. i don't see anything quite that dramatic happening here.. but still think it can drop to 3 before coming ashore. no way to be certain, but i think Dennis is just about done strengthening... the waters it's over shouldn't support much more intensification. don't see the makings of an ERC yet, unfortunately. there's still time.
HF 0818z10july


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: Problems with this site [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41440 - Sun Jul 10 2005 03:39 AM

They fix the typo..it's officaly 145MPH. There has been alot of funny little typos this storm. They called Dennis, "Danny" a couple of releases ago.

On the site problems, it look like it was cause by alot of refresh at the same time tonight that knocked the page into print mode.

Anyway, I hope everyone who wakes up tomorrow morning around 6AM know that if they are going WILL GO. This isn't the time to play "Stay or Go". Time is up and your plywood house isn't safe anymore.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD 26.10N 80.30W
Have a computer backup power supply? [Re: Margie]
      #41441 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:04 AM

Small light bulbs - 7 1/2 watts; with common type screw-in bases can be used after you shut everything else down in an orderly fashion. My APC 1400 backup gives me power for such a small load almost indefinitely. A weather radio from "The Shack" uses only 5W and so do many portable radios. My thoughts and prayers, from the "Gold Coast", go out to all. Even down here, my power was out 2-3 times starting a little before 11PM Friday night(4 hour outage!). FPL is still trimming trees according to usual schedule and didn't expect such an early onset of this tropical season. Who did? If the activity continues at this rate, the predictions of Dr. Gray and his Colorado associates my be more Pollyannaish than Cassandra like. I'm sure that I'll get mine before this dreadful season ends.

As we used to say in Brooklyn; "Wait 'til next year!"

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Recon [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #41442 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:33 AM

7:57 Zulu
932 MB
8 mile circular eye...

27.36N 86.00W

Good luck people
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Recon [Re: Bloodstar]
      #41443 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:35 AM

Nice breeze here in Mobile NNE@11 G21.

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geekicane
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Re: Recon [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #41444 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:38 AM

What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 434
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Recon [Re: geekicane]
      #41445 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:41 AM

Quote:

What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?




It really depends on the relative pressures around the storm... but as a general rule of thumb, 925ish would have a shot at having cat 5 winds....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

I use that chart as a method of rule of thumb pressures vs wind velocity...

-Mark
(IANAM, so what I say is not to be taken as anything more than an enthusiast)

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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geekicane
Registered User


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Posts: 8
Re: Recon [Re: Bloodstar]
      #41446 - Sun Jul 10 2005 04:47 AM

Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that Dennis can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Recon [Re: geekicane]
      #41447 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:01 AM

Quote:

Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that Dennis can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall?




I wouldn't say they're 'out to sea', Hurricane intensity is one of the most difficult things to project, and really, they've warned people for a while that this storm was not going to be nice. But as far as intensity goes, The pressure has to start levelling off,

5am sat:972mb
11am sat: 967mb
5pm sat: 955mb
11pm sat: 941mb
5am sun: 932mb

40mb drop in 24 hours
I keep saying, 'it can't keep strengthening' but at this point, it's making it's own environment, the only thing that will slow it down in the next 12 hours are ERC and SSTs. It's moving to fast to really upwell too much water, and it's still a very small storm. 145mph winds at the 4am cdt advisory...

take this for what it's worth and I'm gritting my teeth as I say this, peak at 150, landfall at 140, either way, it's going to be very unfun for anyone in the path.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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Talassee
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Re: Recon [Re: Bloodstar]
      #41448 - Sun Jul 10 2005 05:24 AM

Has anyone seen the 5AM NHC Discussion? It's listed on their main page, but when you open it up, it is last night's discussion....

--------------------
Renee


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Recon [Re: Talassee]
      #41449 - Sun Jul 10 2005 06:33 AM

Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 24


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 10, 2005


Data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum
winds in Dennis have increased to near 125 kt. This is based on
maximum 700 mb flight level winds of 139 and 140 kt from a couple
of passes through the northeast eyewall. Dennis may undergo an
eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall...which usually results
in some fluctuations in intensity. Water vapor imagery does not
suggest any environmental mid- to upper-level features that could
weaken the hurricane before landfall... however the waters over the
northeast Gulf coastal areas are of somewhat lower oceanic heat
content...which should limit significant additional strengthening.
Dennis is forecast to make landfall as a category four hurricane.
Track forecast reasoning is basically the same as before. The
hurricane is now moving north-northwetward in the steering flow
between a mid-level high to its east and a mid-level trough near
the northwest Gulf Coast. This general motion should continue
through landfall. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and is quite close to the dynamical model consensus
and to the Florida State University superensemble track.
Predicted storm surge heights have been adjusted upward due to the
increased intensity of the hurricane.
Forecaster Pasch


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/0900z 27.8n 86.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 10/1800z 29.6n 87.4w 125 kt
24hr VT 11/0600z 32.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 11/1800z 34.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland
48hr VT 12/0600z 36.5n 90.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 13/0600z 38.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland
96hr VT 14/0600z 38.5n 86.5w 20 kt...remnant low
120hr VT 15/0600z 38.5n 84.5w 20 kt...remnant low


$$


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Recon [Re: geekicane]
      #41450 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:16 AM

Quote:

What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally?




Category is determined by the Maximum Sustained wind.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited [Re: danielw]
      #41451 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:24 AM

.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 4 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC
ADVISORY TRACK...WITH A NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE MOBILE/PENSACOLA
AREA. A MAJOR LANDFALLING HURRICANE APPEARS IMMINENT...ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH
OVERNIGHT. IF Dennis DOES NOT WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS GOING
TO BE A VERY LIFE-THREATENING...EXTREMELY DAMAGING EVENT. CATEGORY 4
HURRICANES PRODUCE MAJOR DAMAGE TO ALL STRUCTURES. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE...AS WELL AS
THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE National Hurricane Center.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MOB/AFDMOB.0507101045


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
More Northerly Component now [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #41452 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:26 AM

Looks to have jogged much more northerly over the past few hours. While this wouldn't have meant much yesterday, it is huge today. I still look for a landfall east of Pcola.

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #41453 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:27 AM

For the first time in days I have to say that the NHC track may be off.. Radar here shows Dennis on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it. This always seems to happen to storms at the northern gulf coast. Being in Pcola, a landfall east may be our saving grace. TV video already shows waves over the Pensacola fishing pier..9 hours before landfall. I wish nobody had to endure this but it would make me brearhe easier if this trend continues. They have already closed the I-10 bridge...(the one they fixed after Ivan)

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
RECON [Re: danielw]
      #41454 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:27 AM

Latest Recon has pressure down 1mb to 931mb.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Recon [Re: danielw]
      #41455 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:28 AM

Sorry for the website layout issues, one of the image servers croaked so it lost that for a bit. It's rerouted to the others now, so it should be showing properly again. Also the Mobile webcam recorder display is having issue, but the images themselves are being stored. Adjusting image server network around to handle that. image 1 is down, image3 and image6 are having issues, image 2 is down, so it's a bit crazy. Trying to get things back up.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Recon [Re: pcola]
      #41456 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:31 AM

Please keep us updated as long as you can. My parents are in Marianna and I chose not to go up there due to the forecasts at the time. PM me if you can with any news. I called my parents this morning and they were unaware that the storm had increased in intensity. There may be even more they are not aware of. I have decided to go in afterwards if possible to take them anything they need. Thanks in advance.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Recon [Re: MikeC]
      #41457 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:33 AM

Good Morning all. Things are picking up here in PC. I expect to lose power shortly. And yes...I think a slight wobble/drift to the north is taking place. We will see.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Kal
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Re: Recon [Re: pcola]
      #41458 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:33 AM

I'm seeing the trends on radar and satellite as well Pcola, but obviously it doesn't offer those of us in the Fort Walton Beach area much to smile about. I don't like what I see at the moment.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #41459 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:36 AM

The roads are clear in Hattiesburg,MS as of 6 AM CDT.
Traffic is increasing from the AL/ FL areas, but was very light then.

No traffic per se from Gulfport or New Orleans.

If you need to Leave. Please Do So Now.
Before the traffic get heavy.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 07:38 AM)


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mbfly
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Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited [Re: danielw]
      #41460 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:37 AM

This is NOT what I wanted to wake up and see this morning !!! I rode out Frederick, but didn't want to do it again !! Wish me luck

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited [Re: mbfly]
      #41461 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:40 AM

Here's the latest Hurricane Local Statements from the NWS Offices.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited [Re: mbfly]
      #41462 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:40 AM

My prayers are with all who are in the path of this storm. May your only discomfort be the wait.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Mobile Area Forecast Discussion~edited [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #41463 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:47 AM

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 edited

600 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

.NOW...

...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE Dennis CURRENTLY
LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE...

...ALL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION AND EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 9 AM.

THROUGH 8 AM...RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE BANDS
BANDS ARE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND
THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER SQUALLS
LIKELY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF RAIN
SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...EACH BAND WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AS HURRICANE
DENNIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF
74 MPH AND GREATER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO COASTAL BALDWIN AND
ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY
WORSE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE
DENNIS APPROACHES THE AREA...LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF Dennis IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA...ALABAMA LINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IS BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE Dennis MAKES LANDFALL...THIS WILL INCLUDE AREAS
FROM GULF SHORES TO PENSACOLA. IF YOU HAVE NOT EVACUATED FROM A
COASTAL ZONE...PLEASE DO SO IMMEDIATELY.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 2 PM FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS AND
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR
FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS VERY
DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING WEATHER SITUATION


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SirCane
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Girlnascar]
      #41464 - Sun Jul 10 2005 07:59 AM

Well, Pensacola is a ghost town. We're all ready and hunkered down. Pray for us. It's going to be a LONG day. I'm really worried about the aftermath. This is stronger than Ivan. Unbelieveable for early July!

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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TDW
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: SirCane]
      #41465 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:06 AM

The Mobile local CBS station has tapped in to the city's public safety cameras. I am amazed there is still a good bit of traffic on the roads. I hope they all get where they're going soon.

--------------------
"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"


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Kal
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: SirCane]
      #41467 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:09 AM

Just think SirCane, over four months of hurricane season to go for all of us on the Emerald Coast...

I was more than a little surprised to hear that the Pensacola Civic Center was serving as a shelter again. It didn't fare so well during Ivan as I recall, and this storm may be exponentially worse for Escambia county.


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Pensacola101
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41468 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:11 AM

A definite jump to the north just happend. I hope it's not just a wobble.

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MichaelA
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41469 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:12 AM

First vis satellite pic is showing a very intense core. Prayers for you who are in the path.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41470 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:13 AM

The only good thing to come out of this is that maybe the cane will take the heat out of the Gulf so there will not be a repeat of this in this season. Then we will only have to worry about the east coast for the rest of the season.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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danielwAdministrator
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RECON [Re: MichaelA]
      #41471 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:13 AM

MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z
Pressure again down 1 mb...to 930mb.
Eye 8 nautical miles in diameter.

The wind listed is the Flight Level Wind.


Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 08:21 AM)


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Rasvar
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41472 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:14 AM

If I recall, the main problem with the Civic Center was the air conditioners on the roof that tore off. I think they have been reenforced when they were replaced. However, I would not want to ride out a Cat 4 in a building with that profille. I am not sure how well it will hold up. Granted, I do not know how many buildings there are in the area that can withstand a direct hit by this storm.

--------------------
Jim


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Rasvar
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #41473 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:15 AM

Quote:

The only good thing to come out of this is that maybe the cane will take the heat out of the Gulf so there will not be a repeat of this in this season. Then we will only have to worry about the east coast for the rest of the season.




Any reprieve would only be for a week or two. We are still very close to peak heating. By August, water temps will likely be back to where they were.

--------------------
Jim


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jr928
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41474 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:16 AM

weather channel is calling this a northward track and not wobble? what are mets saying?

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Kal
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41475 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:17 AM

I hate to say it...believe me, I really hate to say it...but recent radar and satellite trends seem to point to a landfall somewhere between Gulf Breeze and Destin.

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Storm Cooper
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41476 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:18 AM

I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Terra
Storm Tracker


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Re: Recon [Re: pcola]
      #41477 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:19 AM

Quote:

For the first time in days I have to say that the NHC track may be off.. Radar here shows Dennis on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it.




It's almost like they changed the forecast path 'by mistake' at 5AM EDT. I mean, the discussion said there was no change, and it doesn't look like there should have been a change... but, it shifted west some. I really don't understand why they did that.

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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jr928
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41478 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:19 AM

but cantore is there , it never hits him

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Storm Cooper
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41479 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:22 AM

JK just said it is not a wobble but a true north mvt. Will it last is the question.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41480 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:23 AM

Looks bad with that movement for Pensacola. Unbelieveable.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Kal]
      #41481 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:24 AM

It is looking like it is not a wobble but a true turn to the north. May spare Pensacola the brunt. However, Navarre to east of Destin may be the bullseye if this movement continues. Hopefully, everyone has evacuted from these areas. This is going to destroy the roads into and out of many of these areas as the ocean washes out parts of the barrier islands. This is not a storm to be riding out.

--------------------
Jim


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jth
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Still NNW [Re: Rasvar]
      #41482 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:29 AM

Still moving NNW....there was a wobble due north, but it appears to be starting another wobble back nw in the last few radar frames. Still think landfall is further east than forecast..probably around Ft Walton/Destin.

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


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Re: Dennis' North Movement [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41483 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Quote:

I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all.




Definite northerly movement the last 2 hours. Take a look at the color infared - the CDO on the west side of the storm is narrowing and the cloud shield is becoming asymmetrical. A sure sign of upper level W-SW shearing. This is good and bad news. Good in that it may start to weaken him a little, bad in that it may result in a consistent N or perhaps even a N-NE movement to the coast. Looks bad between Ft Walton Bch and Panama City.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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Rasvar
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41484 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

Not wishing this on anyone; but a best case scenario might be if the center can go in around Grayton Beach or Seagrove Beach. This area would leave the least population and buldings at risk to the core of the storm. Damage would still be severe and Panama City would be hit pretty hard. No really good place for this monster to go except away.

--------------------
Jim


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AndyG
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Re: Still NNW [Re: jth]
      #41485 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:30 AM

I agree, just ever so slightly moving back NNW.

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Frank P
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41486 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:32 AM

morning all.... I still think it has a slight westerly component to the motion and not due north, not looking at the latest radar loops.... my opinion only.... looks to be heading directly to Pensacola... what side of the eye wall it gets yet to be determined.... eye wall on radar looks to be about 10 miles or so in diameter, which is where the 145 miles per hour winds would be.... not a very good place to be so if you have any change of being in it, and you can leave, I'd highly recommend it .... or you better be in a damn strong building or house...

tides at Biloxi look to be about normal, however, we have these glassy two foot waves breaking.... this only occurs with an approaching strong cane off to our SE....

good luck to all .....


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StormKrone
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Loc: Jacksonville, FL 30.30N 81.60W
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41487 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:33 AM

Hi gang,

Long time...no see.. Just watching, waiting, and reading from over here in Tallahassee..where it is just overcast and rainy.

Have to say, been waiting for the Cantore comments .<g> Thank you!!!

To everyone closer to this monster.... my heart, my prayers and my best wishes are with you. Take care, because I am going to be counting noses when all this is over..

Dee, the StormKrone


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stormchazer
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41488 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:34 AM

Wanted to add my concerns and prayers for all who have been and will be effected by Dennis.

Any good thing is often bad for someone. If Dennis is moving North then some of the larger Population centers still recovering from Ivan could be spared. I know that does not say much for Ft Walton, Destin and other areas East.

Again my prayers to you all.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Jeffmidtown
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Rasvar]
      #41489 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:35 AM

Good morning everyone, I hope all got some sleep because this could be a bumpy day...

I have to agree with some of the posters that the movement is more northerly rather than a NNW movement....But if Dennis continues a Northerly track and stays that course inland, there's gonna be a flurry of changing watches and warnings further inland from Montgomery to Atlanta.

One thing I'm wondering, what time is this monster expected to make landfall and how close to high tide is it supposed to hit?

Again it bears repeating, if you are to the east of the eye, it is imperative to still watch this storm like a hawk as the right front quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous and causes possible tornadoes and heavy rains...

Also tidal flooding in Madiera Beach, FL.....

God Speed to everyone in PCB to Moblie and everyone in the path....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

Edited by Jeffmidtown (Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 AM)


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HanKFranK
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ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41490 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:36 AM

it still has time to do the ERC thing and spin down to manageable levels. intensity changes with these strong ones are unpredictable... it would be a lot nicer to see the winds drop 20 mph before landfall. that 1mb pressure fall since the last advisory suggests that it's near the upper threshold it can get to... hopefully the only thing that Dennis can do from here is weaken. i'm not wanting to see that perpendicular impact effect that accelerates the winds and tightens the core that joe b talks about. not at all.
God forbid that the core moves over pensacola. lots more to break there than port charlotte.
we'll probably have an emily tomorrow, in other news. misery loves company.
HF 1336z10july


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jr928
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Re: ten hours [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41491 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:40 AM

there goes cantore again,just on live, warning ms and al that the sky will fall upon landfall, he's more doomsday than the Accuweather guy joe b. NHC has surprised me and nailed this forcast thus far, I'm sticking with them and agree with the soon to see west nw wobble back

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: ten hours [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41492 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:44 AM

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in this area. For my job, I handle computer systems in my companies offices up in the Florida Panhandle. I have been there after almost all of the major hurricanes since Erin to hit the area. Opal and Ivan were the worst I had seen. I fear this storm may push past them. Fortunately, I just about everyone I know has evacuated to either Tallahassee or Jacksonville.

--------------------
Jim


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lunkerhunter
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL 26.58N 81.78W
Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41493 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 AM

is this new data ?

URNT12 KNHC 101207
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/11:43:00Z
B. 28 deg 23 min N
086 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2515 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 134 deg 131 kt
G. 49 deg 009 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 21 C/ 3008 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1604A Dennis OB 19
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #41494 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:47 AM

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...

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lunkerhunter
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Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41495 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:48 AM

down to 131kts....eyewall replacement?

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41496 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:50 AM

That is not a complete report. Note the highest winds parameter and lowest pressure is marked as "N"

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Sun Jul 10 2005 08:52 AM)


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Frank P
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Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41497 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:52 AM

pressure drop 1 mb too

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lunkerhunter
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Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41498 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:53 AM

looks like a right hook

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Rasvar
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Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41500 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:57 AM

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.

--------------------
Jim


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Southern4sure
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Frank P]
      #41501 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:58 AM

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...




I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....


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lunkerhunter
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Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41502 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Quote:

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.




run the various loops and you'll see.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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NewWatcher
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Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41503 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

yes run the MM5 and u can see them both, the first, 98l is gonna be a whopper

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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pcola
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Re: ten hours [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41504 - Sun Jul 10 2005 08:59 AM

Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the NHC said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall.

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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jr928
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41505 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

think daniel said traffic on 98 and 49 from wilmer to hattiesburg and on up towards jackson was not too heavy

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Rasvar
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Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41506 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

TWC just mentioned a very important item that should be repeated.
Do not run a generator indoors. It is not even wise to run it in an attached garage. However, if you do run one in an attached garage(which I do sometimes), make sure you have a CO2 detector above the door to your garage and in other areas of the house(which I also do).

--------------------
Jim


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Margie
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morning all [Re: Frank P]
      #41507 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:00 AM

The buoy south of Pensacola has started to report 30' wave heights.

Unfortunately the buoy south of Dauphin Island, which you'd really like to see, doesn't seem to be reporting.

Wow this storm is still intensifying...I can't get a handle on what it will be doing in the hours just before landfall when it has had all day over the Gulf.

NHC said the only thing to slow it down was cooler water temps. Yesterday though showed warmer temps right along the shore (I used Oceanweather because it is easy to read with all the different shades of orange). That showed yesterday a band of warmer temps above and around the barrier islands and to the west of the hurricane S of LA. Maybe that isn't a good SST map to go by?

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/sst.html

I don't wish this on anyone, but I'm relieved this morning to see the Nward movement because otherwise MS coastline would be in trouble. Still awful that someone has to get hit with this storm.

Waiting to see the first daylight sat view...looks like very white cloud tops around the eye, the buzzsaw signature, very impressive eye.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41508 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:01 AM

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....





Personally I would leave now and head West/NW.


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Pensacola101
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41509 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:03 AM

Local mets are coming on and talking with the NHC, that the north jump will more than likely be a wobble. They are saying that stronger storms are forming on the west side of the eye and that should pull it back to a NW, NNW trend and that is not good for us here in Pensacola. This will put the eye directly onto us.

I hope they are wrong though.


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Rasvar
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41510 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:04 AM

I would say if they do evacuate, west would be the way to go. If they are going to go, they have to levae now. I would not suggest leaving an hour from now. All the bridges will probably be closed shortly. So going Northwest would be best.

--------------------
Jim


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HanKFranK
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Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41511 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:05 AM

joe's cocky and all, but he's tops when it comes to pattern recognition. yeah, we're gonna be talking about that low at 40w a heck of a lot after Dennis is up near paducah.
speaking of which, more globals than not are showing Dennis doing a loop/stall scenario inland over the lower midwest and midsouth. this thing will probably be causing flooding all week. that could end up being just as big of a story.
HF 1405z10july


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HumanCookie
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41512 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:05 AM

Quote:

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...




I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....




Go west as far as you can


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Margie
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41513 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:06 AM

Well I don't think anyone knows exactly where this is going to land, and you wouldn't want to be in Grand Bay if there was any chance of flooding, that's for sure.

If the eye lands to the east, then it will mainly be a lot of wind to deal with.

If the eye lands closer or to the west (looks unlikely now) then much better not to be in Grand Bay, due to storm surge. I just hope everyone got out of that area, and also Foley, Gulf Shores area.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
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Re: ten hours [Re: pcola]
      #41514 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:07 AM

Quote:

Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the NHC said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready.





It was forecasted as a Cat 3 possible Cat 4 last night at 5PM. No one had an excuse to be in that area over night, let alone today. How can people not be ready?


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danielwAdministrator
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It's not to late to leave Mobile~8 AM [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41515 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 AM

Quote:

I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....




Two hours ago, last time I checked the roads, traffic was very light...but increasing from the Mobile area...i.e. westbound Hwy 98 into Hattiesburg.
Other option at this point is i-10 west toward New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Houston.


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jr928
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Margie]
      #41516 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:08 AM

wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon

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bn765
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41517 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:12 AM

No reason why this thing wont go CAT 5.....bad news

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Margie
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: HumanCookie]
      #41518 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile...




I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago....




Go west as far as you can




Well the only way west of Wilmar is to take 98 up past Lucedale to Hattiesburg. Going that way you could get hit with very high winds because there is an inland hurricane warning for that area.

Many gas stations are out of gas around that area.

You don't want to get stuck on that tiny highway without gas.

Plan carefully if you decide to get out to Hattiesburg (or maybe Montgomery). There also won't be any hotel rooms available.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41519 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

Quote:

wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon




I think most of the motel rooms north of the area are full. Possibly to Memphis.
Louisiana and Texas may be a better solution for Mobile area evacuees right now. Some left the New Orleans area so there could be motels rooms available.


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Jeffmidtown
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: jr928]
      #41520 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:13 AM

With the latest update at 9am, the northerly track at 16mph, that really has me worried that this fast moving thing is really gonna hammer it's landfalling area.

CNN was saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center.

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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Ron Basso
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Re: ten hours [Re: pcola]
      #41521 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:14 AM

Quote:

Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the NHC said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall.




I dunno about the west turn. Seems counter to what you might expect. If u look at the water vapor, Dennis appears to be getting influenced by some w-sw shear from the ULL south of LA. Notice the more asymmetrical cloud shield.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
RJB


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danielwAdministrator
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Severe Weather [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #41522 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:19 AM

I'm seeing frequent Tornado Warnings from Florida.
Please keep your radios and TVs on a local EBS station or turn on your WeatherRadio.
3 warnings in the last hour from the Tampa NWS County warning areas.
Latest Warning from Tampa NWS An hour old, but still severe weather in the area.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 807 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 807 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER LARGO...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT... LARGO BY 805 AM EDT. CLEARWATER BY 810 AM EDT. DUNEDIN BY 815 AM EDT. PALM HARBOR BY 820 AM EDT. TARPON SPRINGS BY 825 AM EDT. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:21 AM)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: On another, more local note... [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #41523 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:20 AM

Quote:

CNN as saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center.





CNN should listen to the NHC better.

"Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane."


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AndyG
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Re: Severe Weather [Re: danielw]
      #41524 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:20 AM

Yeah, we (Manatee county) had one around 7:30 this morning. Nothing since though.

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lunkerhunter
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Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: AndyG]
      #41526 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:25 AM

anyone have the link of the site that has flood tide prediction charts for like 10-20 sites in the gulf, all listed on one screen? thanks!

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HanKFranK
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inland [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41527 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:26 AM

fortunately southwest alabama is rural once you get inland.. in terms of people and property there is less to be threatened. no comfort for folks in places like atmore, brewton, and grove hill.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41528 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:27 AM

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/

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Storm Cooper
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Re: inland [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41529 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:29 AM

NHC will shift the track slightly to the east next adv.

Per JK speaking w/ the NHC.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:38 AM)


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Southern4sure
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Family is hunkering down... [Re: danielw]
      #41530 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:31 AM

Well they have decided to hunker down and stay put. Fear of no gas, high traffic volume and time stuck on the road made their choice. Shelters in Mobile are full also. Thanks for the quick info I was able to pass along to them. Does anyone know if cell phone service will be interrupted in the affected areas?

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tpratch
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41531 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:33 AM

Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up.

Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy.

YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details)


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KC
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: tpratch]
      #41533 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:40 AM

Quote:

Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up.

Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy.

YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details)




Do they have text messaging capabilities? If so, that might be a good option. Still won't work if service is out - but - text messages will be sent when the system is available again (as opposed to calls that have to be re-dialed until you can get through). My prayers are with all in the path.

Karen

Great Idea!

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:48 AM)


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jr928
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: tpratch]
      #41534 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 AM

if the westward turn is going to happen it would be soon as the build up of storms on the western wall is what they keep saying may influence the westward shift again. how far east did the NHC say they may adjust and does that keep it heading north upon landfall?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kevx.shtml
shows clear nw float but water vapor makes it look n?


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birdwomn
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41535 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 AM

So you don't panic after the storm: I was able to reach my Mom in Pensacola immediately after the storm then she lost phone service for several days, cell and land. It scared me to death. Bottom line phone service will be spotty at best. Often they could call out and not get incoming calls or vice versa. Or the phone would not ring, but if they picked up, it would connect. Fun stuff. DO tell them to try text messages to let you know they are ok or plans they have.

Just keep trying periodically if you can't get them. Eventually you will get through.

I am praying for them and everyone else in the path of this monster.

Edited by birdwomn (Sun Jul 10 2005 09:45 AM)


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Lysis
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: birdwomn]
      #41536 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:56 AM

After Charley we diddn't have phone service for over a month with Nextel. However, some other companys got up to speed faster. Your ability to reach them may depend on what service they have.

--------------------
cheers


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Justin in Miami
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41537 - Sun Jul 10 2005 09:58 AM

Cell phone service will be around during and to some extent after the storm. The problem lies not with the towers, although some will fail b/c they are probably not designed for 145mph winds plus gusts especially the old ones, but the antennas they really take a beating in the winds. They move or fall off which will disrupt the network becuase they are not transmitting their signal in the right direction. However, if a tower/antenna site survives (which most do) they will have about 4-12 hours of emergency backup power (generators, batteries) then they fail. That is why most can use a cell phone during and usually one day after the event and then service dies until the main power is restored or the wireless company adds more gas to the generator. They only caveat is capacity...if there are 1 millions calls into a network designed for 500K calls...there will be problems. Good luck to your family...I really feel for all those folks up there!

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stormchazer
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Re: inland [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #41538 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:00 AM

Probably but Dennis looks to be going more NW again in last few frames. I guess he is stair stepping.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Justin in Miami
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #41539 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:01 AM

FEMA and the wireless companies also have portable sites that they will have on standby to deploy after the storm. They call them COWs (Cells On Wheels).

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lunkerhunter
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: danielw]
      #41541 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:02 AM

Quote:

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/




thanks Daniel, there's another one I'm still looking for.


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: inland [Re: stormchazer]
      #41542 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:03 AM

Hurricanes always seem to move in these wobble steps.
But when it gets close to landfall, a wobble can make a difference
of course on where the eye makes landfall.


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ptbies
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: birdwomn]
      #41543 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:04 AM

Usually I just sit back and read but this one I do know about! I went to Port Charlotte after the storm and then living in Vero Beach went through 2 last year. This is what I learned. Have plenty of gas and ice on hand, you will not be able to get it for a couple of days. If you can it will be gone fast. If you want FEMA to reimburse you for a generator do not buy it the day before an event, they will not pay!?? Nextel is used by emergency groups so they may lock you out. We lost two towers on top ot that. Nextel and other companys will give you a break on your payments if you call them! If you have a generator and can run your frig. frozen gatorade is a treat!! Oh, don't forget propane for your gril and a fan. It gets really hot down here! Surviving the next 2 wks after the storm can be the hardest.

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Margie
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41544 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:05 AM

Quote:

Well they have decided to hunker down and stay put. Fear of no gas, high traffic volume and time stuck on the road made their choice. Shelters in Mobile are full also. Thanks for the quick info I was able to pass along to them. Does anyone know if cell phone service will be interrupted in the affected areas?




Main thing will be if the cell phone towers stay up.

Last year with Ivan my brother was able to call me to let me know when he was off the street and off duty and directed to go to the nearest shelter and hunker down...thank goodness.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Southern4sure
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: birdwomn]
      #41545 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:09 AM

Thats a great idea about text messaging. Im calling them now to tell them to do just that.

Thanks for the tip!


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Margie
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #41546 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:09 AM

Quote:

Quote:

http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/




thanks Daniel, there's another one I'm still looking for.




Try going to each state's web site.

On the MS web site I found all the storm surge and evac maps for the coastal counties.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: Margie]
      #41547 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:14 AM

My prayers and thoughts go out to all that are in the path of this monster.Just be smart be safe and do the best that you can.Help will be on they way,soon after the storm.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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tpratch
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: Margie]
      #41549 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:18 AM

Looks like the board lost a style sheet again.

*edit*

As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure.

Edited by tpratch (Sun Jul 10 2005 10:19 AM)


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Margie
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wave heights [Re: Southern4sure]
      #41550 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:19 AM

Wave heights on that buoy SSE of Pensacola now approaching 35 ft.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Justin in Miami
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Re: wave heights [Re: Margie]
      #41551 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:23 AM

Some of you might not be aware of these guys:

http://hurricanetrack.com/

They had some oustanding video of Charlie last year. They are hurricane chasers.


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Justin in Miami
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Direction [Re: Margie]
      #41552 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:26 AM

Whatever wobble there was is gone...it looks like it is back on course for Pensacola. Ouch!

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Margie
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: tpratch]
      #41554 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:27 AM

Quote:

Looks like the board lost a style sheet again.

*edit*

As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure.




Same thing happened to me, only it came back between the initial post and the preview.

Good view of the eye on Tallahasee short-range loop:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kevx.shtml

Looks like the area with very high winds has become even more compacted.

Ignoring all the wobbles still looks to be heading generally in NW direction.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: Margie]
      #41555 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:31 AM

what's up with the Pensacola data not available?
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEOSOTLH&version=0

anyone have links to sites that are up?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: tpratch]
      #41557 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:34 AM

Quote:

Looks like the board lost a style sheet again.

*edit*

As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure.




Yep, some of our image servers are down, so I had to shuffle things around. Down to 2 at the moment (From 5). Hope they hold, the main server can't handle it alone.


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HumanCookie
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Re: Direction [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #41558 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:36 AM

whoa... no pics. bandwidth issues do not permit those. links are ok. -HF



Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 10 2005 10:41 AM)


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tpratch
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Re: Flood Tide Prediction Charts [Re: MikeC]
      #41559 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:37 AM

Well, start by disabling the avatars and smilies. They aren't much on the size-load, but they are definitely the largest amount of requests per page.

An ounce of prevention and all that.


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Justin in Miami
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Re: Direction [Re: HumanCookie]
      #41560 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:39 AM

I pitty anyone who is hunkering down in the many wood framed homes and buildings up there!

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Lysis
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Re: Direction [Re: HumanCookie]
      #41561 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:39 AM

At this speed, it should be a daytime hurricane, which is good. It is far scarier at night... if that is any consolation.

--------------------
cheers


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CarolinaGurl
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Re: ten hours [Re: Rasvar]
      #41562 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:41 AM

Quote:

BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year.




I have been searching all over for the link to the navy site, anyone have it?

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Direction [Re: Lysis]
      #41563 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:42 AM

Foxnews is showing an incredible feed from the Pier in Pensacola

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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HanKFranK
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Re: Direction [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #41564 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:43 AM

wood framed bldgs? older construction, maybe. whatever Ivan didn't get.. well, Dennis is going to have its way with it.
HF 1543z10july


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Direction [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #41565 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:43 AM

Looks like Suddath has picked his spot to continue feed. http://www.hurricanetrack.com/live.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Margie
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Re: wave heights [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #41566 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:45 AM

Quote:

Some of you might not be aware of these guys:

http://hurricanetrack.com/

They had some oustanding video of Charlie last year. They are hurricane chasers.



Can't believe these guys. They are putting themselves right in the path of a storm surge just for some pics of tiny waves lapping at a beach house.

When storm surge comes in, it comes in fast just like the water from a tsunami.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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CarolinaGurl
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Re: wave heights [Re: Margie]
      #41567 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:46 AM

They don't stay in the vehicle - they leave it there to collect data - like "dorothy" in the movie Twister.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Lysis
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Re: wave heights [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #41568 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 AM

This image struck me.
Outer rain bands coming onto Pensacola beach, yesterday:

http://lightningboy.com/Hurricane_Dennis/DSC00777.jpg

--------------------
cheers


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AdvAutoBob
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Re: Hurricanetrack [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #41569 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 AM

Sudduth's wind tower is about to get its first REAL field test...

To Rick and all of you in Dennis' path, you're all in my family's prayers. The only upside I can see is at least landfall is during daylight hours.

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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Tazmanian93
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Re: wave heights [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #41570 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:48 AM

Actually, they are in the vehicle and driving around

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: wave heights [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #41571 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:50 AM

Mark needs to get that thing up and get out of there pretty soon, he doesn't have much time. Landfall is going to be a little bit sooner in the afternoon now.

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CarolinaGurl
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Re: wave heights [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #41572 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:50 AM

Quote:

Actually, they are in the vehicle and driving around




But they will leave it and go back to the police station for shelter.

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Margie
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flood info from Pascagoula [Re: Margie]
      #41573 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:53 AM

Just talked to my brother in Pascagoula. He's been on duty since 2am and quite busy but luckily I caught him just at the right time to talk to him for a couple minutes.

He said the county shut down the computer system so he has no way to get direct info about the hurricane, but he knows the barometric pressure must be really low, because of how much the water is already rising (under areas of low barometric pressure the water will rise up like a dome). He said they are already at 7 feet or more in some areas, and already they are getting calls from folks who are in trouble because of the high water. Remember they are getting winds from the N right now.

Also...the eye is clearly visible on MOB radar now:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

I told him I'd give him a call and let him know if it hooked west to make landfall west of the FL/AL border. While we were talking I didn't think that would be the case but wow it is really moving NW now and it is moving pretty fast. If it doesn't hook west or go too far west then they won't have to worry because they won't get too much wind or rain.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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superfly
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Re: flood info from Pascagoula [Re: Margie]
      #41574 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:00 AM

Outer eyewall has formed from radar loops. This could weaken significantly before landfall.

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CarolinaGurl
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Re: wave heights [Re: MikeC]
      #41575 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:04 AM

Quote:

Mark needs to get that thing up and get out of there pretty soon, he doesn't have much time. Landfall is going to be a little bit sooner in the afternoon now.




Post on the website says they are going to head east as far as they can to setup the tower and get away, webcam will be down while they setup. www.hurricanetrack.com

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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Lysis
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Re: wave heights [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #41576 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:06 AM

A little late for this, as the conversation has ended, but...
Believe it or not, these storm chasers are doing the community a service, in my opinion. People need some form of closure with these things. My reconciling with Charley was done through my film. I would then show it to other people, see their emotional impact, and see that they now finally understood. This is most important for the people to evacuate. I will never forget my neighbor coming home that afternoon to survey the damage. When she saw all her windows broken, her roof in shambles, and everything in the house trashed, she started screaming in the street. People dont understand how this could ever happen to them. When they see my movie, it is like, oh, now I understand.
Another group of storm chasers.Jeff Gammons, Jim Edds, and Douglas Kiesling , among other guys with their team usually produce some pretty good imagery. I dont know how long they can keep it up, but they have this intercepting business down to a science. However if there is one thing that we have learned about hurricanes, it is to expect the unexpected. I hope no one gets killed in one of these things, because it will probably end it (and worse, it will be on film).


The films storm chasers create generally mean a lot to a community that was hit. That is why the aforementioned team made over $100,000 in just our little town.

http://www.bnvn.com/hurricane_charley/

http://www.extremestorms.com/

http://lightningboy.com/

--------------------
cheers


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richisurfs
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Re: flood info from Pascagoula [Re: superfly]
      #41577 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:06 AM

Mike...I know you're working hard to keep this thing going. It's running great considering whats going on.Thanks alot!!!!!!

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HanKFranK
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eyewall behavior [Re: superfly]
      #41578 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:07 AM

not very predictable, those inner core changes. yeah, it could spin down some... but i dunno. that inner eyewall hasn't weakened a whole lot... there's maybe half of an outer eyewall.. and it's approaching the coast. if i had to guess, i wouldn't call on it to spin down below cat 4 status, or the pressure to get back above 940... but i'm not being optimistic. i was going with a 3 earlier but had just about lost hope on that... with it accelerating and coming in perpendicular to the coast, it should more or less keep stable to impact. that'll be in about 4 1/2 hrs.
HF 1606z10july


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GLT
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Re: Family is hunkering down... [Re: birdwomn]
      #41579 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:09 AM

After Charlie and Frances the land line phones worked for several hours after we lost power - seems they have their own batteries which then died. 4-6 hours.

Verizon cell worked the whole time.

(Please don't stop your prayers for those in the path just because the storm is stlll coming. There will be many miracles, maybe one because of your prayer.)

This makes me feel so bad it hurts.

GLT


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Clark
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Re: flood info from Pascagoula [Re: superfly]
      #41580 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:09 AM

There's a chance of it, but we don't know where in the cycle it'll occur. Will one happen before landfall? We can only hope, but it's not a given.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Tazmanian93
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Re: wave heights [Re: Lysis]
      #41581 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:09 AM

I have to agree, the more coverage of these storms, the more informed folks will be, and increase preparedness now and in the future.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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BabyCat
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lysis photo [Re: Lysis]
      #41584 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:15 AM

Very impressive photo

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Keith234
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Re: Direction [Re: Lysis]
      #41585 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:16 AM

I would have to disagree, but then again it's merely prefrence. A hurricane's damage would be much more brazen during the day (when you could see it), rather then night when you have no clue what's happening. A crude metaphor would be getting shot and watching it happen.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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drcrazibob
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Re: Direction [Re: Keith234]
      #41586 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:20 AM

Well, Good luck to all up there! I have a Cousin in Ft. Walton Beach that has a trailer home, however he and his wife and child are staying in Orlando right now. I'm thinking they'll be coming home to a house boat.

Someone told me there were 2 Lows coming off of Africa?


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Direction [Re: drcrazibob]
      #41587 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:24 AM

Quote:

Well, Good luck to all up there! I have a Cousin in Ft. Walton Beach that has a trailer home, however he and his wife and child are staying in Orlando right now. I'm thinking they'll be coming home to a house boat.

Someone told me there were 2 Lows coming off of Africa?


Yup,2 more. Good chance of developing also.What a year this is going to be!!!!!

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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GuppieGrouper
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Re: Direction [Re: drcrazibob]
      #41588 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:25 AM

Yeah, they will take a look at what Dennis did and turn around and go the other way so they don't get the blame!

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Direction [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #41589 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:31 AM

Bay County bridges will be closed in about an hour due to expected sustained 55mph winds.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Re: Direction [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #41590 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:32 AM

well, still have power here in gulf breeze. winds probably 60 mph. house is shaking a bit but i am hoping this is no worse than Ivan..radar looks like a Pensacola pass or al/fl border landfall

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Direction [Re: drcrazibob]
      #41592 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:37 AM

Correct me if I`m wrong , looking at the radar loop out of Pensacola, it looked like Dennis might hit west of town.......and the two waves out in the Atlantic bares watching. The one that just came off of Africa looks pretty impressive, the one in the mid Atlantic has some convection this morning and a swirl......Trackin time again next week it looks like.......I pray for those of you in Dennis`s path...Be safe...Weather

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Justin in Miami
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Re: Direction [Re: pcola]
      #41593 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:38 AM

PCola where exactly are you in Gulf Breeze? Are you on the coast?

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VolusiaMike
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Re: Direction [Re: pcola]
      #41594 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:38 AM

Based on information via HurrTrack, you should be getting sustained winds of around 50 MPH from 55 degrees in Escambia County.

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Lysis
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Re: Direction [Re: VolusiaMike]
      #41595 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:44 AM

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesnt matter in the bathroom closet.

--------------------
cheers


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LadyStorm
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Re: Direction [Re: Lysis]
      #41597 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:47 AM

From the 3 hurricanes I have gone through I would say going through them in the day hours in less scarey than having them happen at night. I like to know what is happening, I hate being left in the dark (pun not intended)

MaryAnn



Quote:

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesnt matter in the bathroom closet.




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Rick on boat in Mobile
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hey ya'll [Re: Lysis]
      #41598 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:48 AM

Still here...just balmy and breezy inland about 20 miles...anticipate things will deteriorate rapidly...

appears movement will oscillate....and now where the eye comes in...everything to the right of it for twenty miles...will be the brunt of things...

boat may survive this...unless it tracks a little bit more west than it is...

doing fine right now...wierd that it's coming in during the day...can't remember that happening in the last 10 hurricanes....will it stall and come in tonight?...

still some suprises, I think, with the ultimate landfall....


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garrison
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41599 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:50 AM

looking at the latest NWS radar loop, looks like the eyewall has weakened in the last half hr

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B.C.Francis
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Re: hey ya'll [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #41600 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:53 AM

Good thing your not out in the Gulf near moored bouy 42036, it had peak wave height of 33.5 in the last hour.........Weatherchef

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Keith234
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: garrison]
      #41601 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:57 AM

Looking at visible, there some thunderstorms clouds extending beyond the general height of the other tops to the SW corner of the eye. Most likely torndaic , but then again it would be offly difficult to notice a tornado when you're experiencing a hurricane with 140 mph winds.

Edit -- Keith234, it's very rare to see any tornadic activity within the eyewall of the storm itself. Conditions just do not support it. It is likely that this is where the strongest winds may be found at this time, particularly as they translate down to the surface, but not an indicator of tornadoes. Radar data -- particularly velocity products -- need to be used to look for tornadic activity, not satellite. --Clark

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Clark (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:13 PM)


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Margie
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Re: hey ya'll [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #41603 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:01 PM

Quote:

Good thing your not out in the Gulf near moored bouy 42036, it had peak wave height of 33.5 in the last hour.........Weatherchef




You mean 42039 (south of Pensacola). 42036 is south of Tampa and had max wave height of around 24 ft earlier this morning.

Actually that data is two hours old...it says 9:50 but if you look above it says the times are one hour older, so that was at 9am.

Sure wish the buoy south of Dauphin Island (42040) was working.

--------------------
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Nate
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Keith234]
      #41604 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:01 PM

Local Weatherman from Mobile-Pensocola area stated the rainbands arent as bad as expected and most likely wont be as Tornadic as one thought. Thats a good sign, also Winds arent as a bda as expected either. I wouldnt be surprised if it gets downgraded to a 3 and maybe even fall apart sooner then expected once it hits land. The cooler water seems to be doing damage.

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Steve777
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Re: Direction [Re: LadyStorm]
      #41605 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:03 PM

Having still damage to fix 11 months later (slept in living room 6 months) I am so sorry to see what folks will be facing again. i'm like in shock . FIVE hurricanes to hit Florida in less than 11 months.

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Justin in Miami
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Nate]
      #41606 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:06 PM

Nate, I would wait to hear that from NHC...sounds like some of these TV Mets are winging it right now....also...looks like it will be a direct hit on Pensacola...looks like Gulf Breeze and Navarre area will be hammered.

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HanKFranK
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vortex msg [Re: Steve777]
      #41607 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:08 PM

the latest message had 937mb as the central pressure and the max flight level winds at 93kt. the wind sample is probably low, but the pressure is going back up, which is good. it will probably be a 3 when it gets to the coast.. but still stronger than Ivan incrementally. the eyewall convection is a little weaker, and the satellite presentation isn't as good as earlier... three hours to go or so.
HF 1708z10july


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BabyCat
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Re: hey ya'll [Re: Margie]
      #41608 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:08 PM

That buoy has been out for awhile. I tried to look at it a while back.
The waves are really picking up around the eye this morning.


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Nate
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Re: vortex msg [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41609 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:14 PM

Also seems like the Eyewall and Storm surge arent as big or as destructive as Ivan.

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Clark
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Nate]
      #41610 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:18 PM

Nate -- he's right on the rain bands -- they are not nearly as tornadic as seen with last years storms, meaning most areas may have dodged the bullet with that one. The orientation of the rain bands more east-west than north-south may be helping with this, but that's just a hunch. The tropical storm force winds are every bit as much as advertised, however. Remember that the hurricane force winds are still offshore -- this is not one of last year's monster-sized storms -- and believe me, their full force will be felt soon enough.

Tallahassee -- almost 200 miles from the storm and well inland -- has seen gusts over tropical storm force thus far today, with sustained winds continually over 30mph. Storm-total rainfall is nearing 5" in many spots, with 7"+ a good bet once all is said and done. US 98 between Panacea and Apalachicola -- something like 30 miles -- is closed, with water over the roadway in many areas. Observing stations in both Pensacola and Apalachicola are down, with the Tallahassee and Panama City systems struggling to keep up sometimes. And -- most of this is well-removed from the storm!

Bottom line: the worst is still yet to come.

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Keith234
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Keith234]
      #41611 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:20 PM

Yes, thanks for reminding me. That's why severe thunderstorms the-" windy" kind don't have tornados. Isn't there a term used to describe area's of strong wind that translate down to the surface in hurricanes-the word vector comes to mind but that doesn't seem to make sense? They were attributed with massive damage in isolated area's associated with Andrew. Does anyone know?.

You are thinking of either downdrafts or microbursts, I believe. They are most common with continental thunderstorms, but can be seen with hurricanes as they make landfall and begin to weaken. --Clark

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Clark (Sun Jul 10 2005 12:23 PM)


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Clark
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Re: vortex msg [Re: Nate]
      #41612 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:22 PM

Nate, again -- the storm is still offshore, including the hurricane-force winds, and is a smaller storm than Ivan. Storm surge will not be a major factor for a little time yet -- and is already affecting other areas, as mentioned in the last post. The eyewall doens't have to be huge for things to be bad -- it just may narrow the scope of the damage (and concentrate it, too) to a smaller area.

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GEORGIA GIRL
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Clark]
      #41613 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:25 PM

I MUST ASK THIS QUESTION. MY HUSBAND IS SUPPOSED TO HEAD FOR ATLANTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I HEARD ONE OF THE NEWS STATIONS MENTION THAT ATLANTA MAY RECEIVE SOME PRETTY ROUGH WEATHER. IF THAT IS THE CASE, I WOULD MUCH RATHER HIM REARRANGE HIS SCHEDULE AND STAY IN SE GA, ESPECIALLY IF HE WILL BE DRIVING THROUGH THE WORST OF IT. ANY ONE HAVE ANY ADVICE FOR ME? I REALLY APPRECIATE IT!

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garrison
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Re: vortex msg [Re: HanKFranK]
      #41614 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:30 PM

im suprised that Max wind of 93knots, and at 260, didnt they sample the e and N side?

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Nate
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: GEORGIA GIRL]
      #41615 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:31 PM

Atlanta will be on the NE corner, but Like they stated Rainbands havent been as heavy as expected. That doesnt mean things wont pick up later this afternoon when the Body of Dennis crosses the coast. I would recommend being put til Morning. I honestly think your going to see this storm lose steam drastically when it crosses land. Cuba took alot out of it, Them saying it will stay a Hurrican til Mid day Monday, I disagree with. I wouldnt recommend driving anywahere in that area today if it isnt a dieing emergency.

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GEORGIA GIRL
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Nate]
      #41617 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:35 PM

THANKS NATE FOR TAKING THE TIME TO ANSWER MY QUESTION. WITH EVERYTHING THAT'S GOING ON IN THE GULF, MY QUESTION IS MINOR IN COMPARISON. THANKS!! I PRAY FOR SAFETY FOR EVERYONE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM!

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HumanCookie
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Bullseye on Pensacola [Re: garrison]
      #41618 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:36 PM

Looking at the projected track Dennis will landfall on Pensacola.

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Londovir
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Nate]
      #41619 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:37 PM

Looking at the most recent WV imagery, I'd say the storm is going to bring the eyewall onshore just, just to the west of Pensacola, about along the state line or so. Check out the imagery from the following link, you can zoom in as well. (Just click the zoom button and then click in the window at the desired zoom location).

WV Imagery from UHMET

You can clearly see where the storm was going almost due north, and then see how it's hooked now back to the NW/NNW direction. Not good for Pensacola one bit...my prayers again go out to them, this is going to be a very bad day.

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Londovir


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CDMOrlando
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: GEORGIA GIRL]
      #41621 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:41 PM

Quote:

I MUST ASK THIS QUESTION. MY HUSBAND IS SUPPOSED TO HEAD FOR ATLANTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I HEARD ONE OF THE NEWS STATIONS MENTION THAT ATLANTA MAY RECEIVE SOME PRETTY ROUGH WEATHER. IF THAT IS THE CASE, I WOULD MUCH RATHER HIM REARRANGE HIS SCHEDULE AND STAY IN SE GA, ESPECIALLY IF HE WILL BE DRIVING THROUGH THE WORST OF IT. ANY ONE HAVE ANY ADVICE FOR ME? I REALLY APPRECIATE IT!




Here is a link to the JAX florida RADAR
[url=http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jax_NCR_lp.html]web page[/url
This link will show major roads and the rain.
Charleston S.C. along with the Atlanta area sites were down when i checked.


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Ed in Va
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Londovir]
      #41622 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:42 PM

I'd be interested in anyone's comments on Dennis vs. Camille. Dennis has apparently lost some punch as it has gone over cooler waters. Why didn't that happen with Camille...later in the season=warmer waters, was its path over the Gulf over deeper water, etc?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Clark
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Re: vortex msg [Re: garrison]
      #41623 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:43 PM

GEORGIA GIRL -- yes, Atlanta may receive some rough weather: mainly rain, lots of squalls. Airport operations there will likely be touch and go all day with many flights likely to be canceled.

garrison -- I believe they sampled the west side of the storm, coming from Keesler AFB in Mississippi. They'll move to the NE side next.

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CDMOrlando
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Re: vortex msg [Re: Clark]
      #41624 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:45 PM

garrison -- I believe they sampled the west side of the storm, coming from Keesler AFB in Mississippi. They'll move to the NE side next.




I local TV station had an interview with a Hurricane hunter pilot and they indicated that they had moved to texas to run current operation...but still they would be coming from the southwest through the storm.


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Clark
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Ed in Va]
      #41625 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:46 PM

Ed in Va-- a combination of all of the above, plus probably some atmospheric factors that came into play as well. Hard to say, though, without a lot of old data for Camille....about all that can be said now is that Dennis is no Camille, which is a good thing.

Latest recon in: 127kt at flight level in the NE quadrant, 939mb SFC. pressure. Storm is a bit weaker, but still very intense.

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Pensacola101
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Re: vortex msg [Re: Clark]
      #41626 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:47 PM

Winds are picking up here in Pensacola (around 60-70mph gusts). Power is still on at my house, but who knows for how much longer. The compactness of this storm is just going to bring the winds all of a sudden I think.

Everyone stay safe.


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BobVee
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: GEORGIA GIRL]
      #41627 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:50 PM

Just talked to one of my cousins who drives a big rig. He is between Montgomery and Atlanta(closer to Atlanta) going toward Atlanta and states that there is but a light breeze with intermittent rain showers. I would expect that driving conditions from SE Georgia would be ok if your husband exercises common sense and drives with caution as one would during any thunderstorm or inclement weather. Just listern to local weather reports and be careful.

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kissy
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Re: vortex msg [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41628 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:53 PM

I'm in Pascagoula. It's pretty windy (of course this is only my second hurricane so it seems like alot to me!) rainy. The roads are starting to flood. I can definetly see a decreasae in the weather within the last hour or so. Good luck to everyone!

--------------------

Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!


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Jane219ga
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Re: vortex msg [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41629 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:53 PM

Just for the sake of curiosity - are you a fan of UGA?

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scottsvb
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Londovir]
      #41630 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:57 PM

Well looks like I might have my first blown forecast of the season with my landfall within 50 miles of Panama City. Only way it wouldnt happen is a direct N turn now and head maybe even slightly NNE. Anyways I expected a north turn more earlier, and it actually did look like it last night but was only a wobble. Looks like Ill miss my spot by 25-50 miles. Not bad but ill take the miss on landfall.
Hopefully everyone from Mobile-Panama City is indoors now and ready for this severe hurricane.
On a side note....Dennis's child should become our next depression late today or more likely tomorrow and threaten the Leeward islands Weds, Puerto Rico by thurs and Bahamas by the weekend.,.,,,US? too far out to tell.

scottsvb


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BobVee
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Re: vortex msg [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41631 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:57 PM

Good luck to you and everyone up there. I cannot be there with you in person but will be there in spirit.

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Margie
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webcam [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41632 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:59 PM

Looks like http://hurricanetrack.com/ is up...but there isn't any discernable image, and he is saying that the pressure may not register.

But at least it looks like it will give wind speed and direction.

Looks like he took the barrier island road east as far as he could go past Gulf Shores, the tower is on Perdido Key which is a barrier island just south of the entrance to the bay.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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bn765
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: scottsvb]
      #41633 - Sun Jul 10 2005 12:59 PM

Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be?

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LizL
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: bn765]
      #41634 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 PM

the guy on channel 9 news in Orlando said the pressure is at 930 lower than Ivans was when he come ashore.

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scottsvb
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: bn765]
      #41635 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:02 PM

The next storm will be a small compacted system. Like Charlie last year. There is no reason right now where we cant see this becoming a hurricane in the next 4-5 days. Right now, we dont know.

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Margie
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Pasco Beach [Re: kissy]
      #41636 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Hey Kissy looks like MS coast is in the clear. You will get tropical force winds and rain but will be spared the intense center of the storm, which looks to make an AL/FL landfall.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 PM)


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cjzydeco
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Fl County Maps [Re: Pensacola101]
      #41637 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Anybody have a good link to share with detailed or interactive (zoom) county maps of Escambia/Santa Rosa area?

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AdvAutoBob
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Re: webcam [Re: Margie]
      #41638 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:03 PM

Image is extremely hard to see.. Are they still working on the tower, or have they left the area?

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Margie
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: bn765]
      #41639 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:07 PM

Quote:

Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be?



adv 25a just came out - winds droped to 135pmg and pressure went up from 937 to 939. Somewhere like strong CAT 3 weak CAT 4.

--------------------
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Margie
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Margie]
      #41641 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:15 PM

What is happening to the eye in this most recent frame? Satellite IR and water vapor imagery it still looks intact, but in the radar it looks like it is breaking up to the south?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml

--------------------
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AndyG
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Margie]
      #41642 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:16 PM

Looks like a jog to the N maybe?

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firestar_1
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: Margie]
      #41643 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:18 PM

After looking at the water vapor loops, surface pressures, and current radar views it is looking like the eye is rounding out again and it is moving into a position to come onshore to the west of Pensacola...the only questions now is will it move west or east as it makes contact with land...cat3/4 at land fall, but at least a smaller eye...prayers for all in the path...stay safe....

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Sadie
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Re: Direction [Re: LadyStorm]
      #41644 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:18 PM

Quote:

From the 3 hurricanes I have gone through I would say going through them in the day hours in less scarey than having them happen at night. I like to know what is happening, I hate being left in the dark (pun not intended)

MaryAnn
Quote:

From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesnt matter in the bathroom closet.







Know what you mean, they ARE scarier at night. But then again after watching whole oak trees fly by during Charley, maybe being in the dark isn't so bad after all.

My prayers are continuous for those of you in harms way. Favorite aftermath trick -- use your washing machine as an ice bucket. God bless and protect you.

--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota


Edited by Sadie (Sun Jul 10 2005 01:21 PM)


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Ron Basso
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: scottsvb]
      #41645 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:22 PM

You may make your forecast yet. The last hour of radar loop shows the storm moving..can u believe it...maybe an ever so slight N-NE direction. If this trend continues, P'cola may be spared the worst.

--------------------
RJB


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WeatherNLU
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: AndyG]
      #41646 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:22 PM

Defintely a jog to the north and if it contiunes for more than a half hour it's going to make landfall east of Pensacola. I feel so bad for those of you over there who went through Ivan and are now going through Dennis.

It's hard to believe your bad luck and our good luck here in New Orleans.

--------------------
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msmith43
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: scottsvb]
      #41647 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:23 PM

It's a real shame about your forecasting prowess. I'm more concerned about those who will lose their homes and businesses. Your record isn't a great loss.

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jr928
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: msmith43]
      #41649 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:27 PM

that jog north actually looks northeast jog

no, that just isn't right. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 10 2005 02:00 PM)


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firestar_1
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #41650 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:29 PM

The latest radar is wild...it looks like it is starting to hook to the east...this would make things alot better for pcola....looks like it is starting to feel the land now...

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Jeffmidtown
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: jr928]
      #41651 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:30 PM

I was watching TWC and the satellite run definately did show a right leaning turn to me.

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Clark
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Re: eyewall behavior [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #41652 - Sun Jul 10 2005 01:31 PM

Big convective blowup recently in S Alabama...any impact on the track of the storm remains to be seen, but a slight wobble west is not out of the question. This storm looks like it is going directly up Escambia Bay, where damage is going to be catastrophic. This will take the eyewall near or over downtown Pensacola.

Areas from Panama City to Cape San Blas should see their storm surge really kicking up as the center makes landfall and winds begin to come perpedicular to shore in that area. Regions all across the SE from Mississippi to SE Georgia are seeing torrential rains -- here in Tallahassee, we are now well over 5" storm total with much more to come. The FL panhandle, except for perhaps the areas between Apalachicola and Panacea, is bearing the brunt of the heavy rainfall at this time, with S. Alabama next in line as the storm moves north.

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