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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida 28.33N 80.81W
Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4138 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:50 PM

As expected Isidore is now a Category I hurricane, with maximum winds sustained at 75Mph heading towards the west-northwest at 8mph.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

More strengthening is expected and some minor weakening is expected to occur during its track across Cuba. Only God knows what Isidore will do when it re-enters the Gulf of Mexico and puts its crosshairs on a target. Florida west coast to the Keys need to keep a very close eye on it as she enters the Gulf because you will be the closest to it and will have the less amount of time if it decides to make that turn. Others will have a little more time to track it if it decides to head your way. As of now, even the best of the best have no real solid track forecast. Keep watching!

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [john@flhurricane.com]


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4141 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:59 PM

HF,

See my reply on the previous page...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4142 - Thu Sep 19 2002 04:59 PM

to who ever questioned the track of this storm and Donna...the tracks a totally different...Donna was north of the islands of Hispanola and Cuba and made a hard right turn over the keys into SW Florida...Donna was an early Sept. storm..about two weeks earlier than this one, as I recall.

--------------------
doug


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4143 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:01 PM

What track after 72 hours will take is the big question now and as for intensitie I fear that it may go to cat 4.All residents from Brownsville to the keys better watch it closely.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4145 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:07 PM

Ok... i am not going to say much about the track of isidore, except i am sticking to my landfall area of Mobile to Pensacola...

Rather, i am going to comment on the intensity. Although in a good environment for strengthening, Isidore really has not strengthened at a great rate. I think that by the time the centre moves over Cuba tomoro we will be looking at a strong C1 Hurricane, with sustained winds about 90 mph. Of course, weakening will occur as the centre moves over land. The circulation, however, is quite large, and Isidore is not that compact a storm. Therefore, providing he does not slow to a crawl while crossing Cuba, expect him to re-emerge into the GOM with winds in the 75 to 80 mph range. Then... strengthening as it meanders over the Gulf waters.

With a large circulation, we may just see Tropical Storm force winds over the extreme southern Keys.

Rich B

StormWarn2000

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4146 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:09 PM

an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found that the minimum
pressure in Isidore has fallen to 984 mb...and the peak flight-level
winds were 76 kt. The crew also estimated surface winds of 70 kt.
On this basis...the advisory winds are increased to 65 kt...making
Isidore the second hurricane of the season.

Isidore has been basically on track today...and the initial motion
is 300/8. The short-term forecast is unchanged...taking Isidore
over western Cuba in 24 hours. In spite of copious quantities of
dropsondes having been released in the environment of Isidore from
the NOAA gulfstream-iv jet over the past two days...there remains
considerable divergence among the track guidance models beyond 48
hours. Much of this divergence appears to be related to the
forecast development of a cutoff mid- to upper-level low between
Bermuda and the Bahamas. The AVN has the strongest and most
westward version of this low...and the northeasterly flow around the
low may be why this model drives Isidore so strongly southwestward
near the end of the forecast period. For whatever reason...the AVN
ensemble mean does not take Isidore as far to the west as the AVN
control. The UKMET has flipped from its earlier northward
track...and is now in better agreement with the AVN. I remain
unconvinced that this low will be as strong or as west as the AVN is
forecasting. However...given the overall tendency for the guidance
to shift westward...I have nudged the official forecast westward
near 72 hours. The bottom line is that when Isidore gets into the
Gulf...steering currents will become very weak...and it will likely
meander and cause much anxiety for several days.

Now that Isidore has a well-formed core...the pace of
intensification should increase. The outflow pattern is well
established and the size of the cyclone is growing. Four out of
five of the ships rapid intensification predictors are positive.
The only slight negative factor over the next 36 hours will be
interaction with the cuban landmass. It is likely that Isidore will
be a major hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 20.6n 82.0w 65 kts
12hr VT 20/0600z 21.3n 83.1w 80 kts
24hr VT 20/1800z 22.4n 84.2w 85 kts
36hr VT 21/0600z 23.2n 85.0w 90 kts
48hr VT 21/1800z 23.5n 85.5w 100 kts
72hr VT 22/1800z 24.0n 86.5w 105 kts

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4147 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:11 PM

even without the wind can you imagine gettin 20 inches of rain???

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Gofins13
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Crystal River,Fl.
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4148 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:17 PM

The TWC said the cold front coming down was strong for Sept. Could it be that this trof will dig deeper than originally expected? Help Jason!! :

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4149 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:23 PM

Hmm is the NHC no longer using all caps ? Thats interesting..

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4150 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:23 PM

" The bottom line is that when Isidore gets into the Gulf...steering currents will become very weak...and it will likely meander and cause much anxiety for several days. "

Oh joy! More anxiety?!?! Where is Isidore's lawyer? I want to sue!

--------------------
Jim


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Anonymous
Unregistered




I am hoping for the AVN Solution
      #4151 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:27 PM

I am hoping the AVN has been right all along and moves this thing away from the US. A major hurricane striking the US would suck, I am hoping for a wsw or westward track away from us..



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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Anixety!!!
      #4152 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:30 PM

This is what you get when you have a hurricane season that has produced nothing but tropical storms and one weak hurricane up-to-date: a storm that sits in the GOMEX, intensifies and torments the hell out of forecasters everywhere in it's possible path.

Describing the weekend and next week as extremely anxious may be an understatement.

Kevin


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4153 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:32 PM

jasons gotta do the weather in about 30 minutes so he's not ignoring you. he's good about answering our questions.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Hey Kevin...
      #4154 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:35 PM

Not to get totally off topic here, but shouldn't your tag line read "New Orleans Saints - 2002 NFC South Champions?" After we lay waste to our 3rd successive 2001 playoff team, people will understand why the Saints are now the TEAM TO BEAT in the South - not to mention that it will be nice to own the head to head over both Chicago and Green Bay. Bring on the 49ers! After this week, it's on to Ford Field and the hapless Detroit Lions. That will make us 4-0 and at least 2 games ahead of the Bucs.

Maybe at least you could acknowledge that the Bucs will struggle to even finish 2nd after the much feared Carolina Panthers get a hold of you guys!

Anyway, looking forward to a long night of millions of posts and threads growing at 40-50 per hour until I just can't take it anymore. As it is, I've gone to bed at 1am every night and have been waking up at 5. Such is live during the active period of the hurricane season.

Steve - Who Dat?

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Gofins13
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Crystal River,Fl.
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4155 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:36 PM

I agree andy1tom!!! Hes GREAT!!!!!!!!

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Southern4sure
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 115
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL 28.22N 82.46W
andy1tom
      #4156 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:37 PM

even without the wind can you imagine gettin 20 inches of rain???

YES! a few years ago, we had Danny in Mobile Bay. 47 inches of rain in the 3 days it stalled in the mouth of Mobile Bay. Winds were nothing, but the rain and flooding was horrible!

Southern


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4157 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:42 PM

could be faith now comes the rain we need but there will be a price this is going to get ugly here it is ala miss line to destin just my gess ihope this thing dont hang aroumd 6 more days when people get home and here there will be a major storm in the gulf look out there will be no batterys on the gulf coast be safe

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
New list of tracks better than UM/Weather Underground...
      #4158 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:44 PM

http://www.hurricanealley.net/10Lpsttrks.html

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: I am hoping for the AVN Solution
      #4159 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM

My only problem with the AVN solution is this question:
Is the AVN just setting us up for some rubber band action? Load the storm up, get some more juice and pow big time hit on US. I just don't see Isidore ending up in Mexico right now. i think he is going to hit the Gulf Coast some way, some how.

--------------------
Jim


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
model stuff
      #4160 - Thu Sep 19 2002 05:51 PM

a'ite jason, whenever youre off the air: read that page you posted.. id actually seen that before but just glanced over it and forgotten. aside from observing firsthand what those NHC suite models tend to do, any more free info you can come up with would be cool.
i've got a new short term take, which sort of flies in the face of my overall forecast but could still work in: think the center of isidore will cross only the very western tip of cuba, move just south of isle of youth. also think the intensity forecast is 15kt too low at 48-72hr. i didnt like the NOGAPS forecast yesterday, but since it's quit ramming the storm into the BOC and just stalls it and turns it back north... now it follows what i had in mind, personally think it will be closer to the yucatan and meandering erratically sunday.
two things i think will play into the ultimate path of izzy:
1)whether the disturbance south of mexico starts to develop. it could further confuse the upper pattern in the gulf.
2)upper cutoff forming near bermuda and backtracking.. think this will have a surface reflection that tries to develop and heads for the mid altantic next week.. that ultimately presses against the continental longwave and causes the shortwaves to buckle and amplify upstream.. one of which should finally bring isidore out.
in the meanwhile, izzy will be wandering in the gulf.. maybe quasi stationary late weekend/early next week. thought is that upwelling will not be a big deal since the oceanic heat content runs fairly deep in the gulf.
it would not surprise me if isidore borders on category five before or after some eyewall replacement cycle in a couple of days.
HF 2145z19september


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