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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: and..
      #4324 - Fri Sep 20 2002 04:09 AM

Looks like your just gonna get some random wind and rain in the keys. However given the totally unpredictable nature of this storm, she may come back to haunt ya later this week.

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Cat 2 and growing!
      #4325 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:04 AM

Well she's now a strong Cat 2 (105mph winds), just a stones throw from being a Cat 3. All eyes on the next flights...will she become a major this morning?

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
WOW
      #4326 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:05 AM

Winds now up to 105 mph. Major cane very, very soon!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: WOW
      #4327 - Fri Sep 20 2002 05:12 AM

Forcast has it a major cane today. As I said, all eyes on the flights. Interesting that they have it sitting in the gulf so long. I'm also curious as why they hold the intensity at 105k, unless they are just trying to keep from widespread panic. Seems with it parked out in the super warm gulf with nothing to stop it...that bad things (tm) will happen.

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Mary
Unregistered




Re: the take
      #4328 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:24 AM

We are waking up to a very disturbing scenario for some one this weekend. Has anyone here ever noticed the tendency of a growing hurricane to present the shape of a fetus on an ultrasound when the cloud tops are highlighted? Makes one think about the mind of God.....

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: the take
      #4329 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:26 AM

A fetus? I never even remotely considered the idea. It does, now that u mention it. Well if this is a fetus its been the longest most painful labor and delivery ever....and its comming out to be one very big baby.

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: the take
      #4330 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:33 AM

At 105mph I thought we would be seeing a eye by now

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: the take
      #4331 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:37 AM

It is clear as a bell on both Key West and the Cuban radar. Not sure why its not obvious on the IR.

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: the take
      #4332 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:44 AM

Also looking at TWC GOM IR loop, That cold front is pushing some massive amounts of thunderstorms all along the coast of Mexico. Still don't understand why that trough is not going to pick him up.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: the take
      #4333 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:45 AM

Check out the Dvorak on the NHC page. Under the floater URL it is very very obvious how strong that center is. There is not a single bit of breakage and it is starting to get a thick lining of clouds around the center. We very well may have a Cat 3 now. But it is not far away unless it loses some steam going over Cuba

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: the take
      #4334 - Fri Sep 20 2002 06:55 AM

No doubt this is one hell of a storm. If its not a cat 3 now, it will be as soon as it clears Cuba. This thing has a cat 5 written all over it. Its the perfect scenario for one. No, I'm not wishcasting, as I said before I'm from Indiana and it'd take a Cat 5 moving at 500mph due north to hit me!

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: the take
      #4335 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:00 AM

Appears the ULL to the west of the system is now moving ENE as it interacts with the front droping of the Texas coast. Have a gut feeling this front will push Izzy on a more northly track in the next 12-24 hours.
SB
South Florida


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: the take
      #4336 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:01 AM

I agree Bruce.... I also stated that last night that this strong southerly flow we now have in the northern gulf coast should influence Izzy... I don't think the models agree with me at all... Maybe the trough is going to flatten out over the weekend and lose its potential for influencing the storm... I do know that if the trough stalls and and does pick up Izzy, we have a very similar scenario to how Camille set up relative to track.... and someone is going to get blasted sooner rather than later...

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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: the take
      #4337 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:08 AM

I use to think this was headed to Florida, way back when the NHC declassified it, however I am seriously thinking its about to be large enough to have a mind of its own. I think its off to the races to see if the trough can pick it up before it decides its own destiny and sits out in the gulf for a while. By the way, I've made a lot of post here in the past few days and am relatively new to posting, so hello to everyone. I'm Derek, from Indianapolis. I lived in Orlando for a while and posted from there. I work for an airline tracking flights if your curious where my interest in this comes in, if theres a big storm we aren't sending planes there!

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Food for thought!
      #4338 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:17 AM

For all of those who still think that the this trough will pick Izzy up need to go to the NWS site in Corpus Christi,tx and you will find something very interesting. Their last discussion was made at 4:30 central time and it states that the trough is already lifting out and leaving Izzy behind. There is also more interesting things they say. I haven't posted the link but it should be pretty easy for you all to find.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Great overnight posts all...
      #4339 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:20 AM

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrwv.html

Trof is already gaining latitude as it lifts out. Animate this link (set to 30 as always for complete effect). The NHC is now suggesting that a 3rd trof may miss it too - and it ain't even on the map yet. Shawn - you should be particularly excited with the 00Z run of the UK Met. Goes to show none of us are out of the woods. Further, the European still has a Cat 3-4 off the Western YP by THURSDAY of next week! Can you believe that???!!!! Almost all other global models - except the GFDL and CMC are now in the W/WSW camp. Current tradjectory is NW as evident by the radar links. NHC guidance is shifted west.

This is probably the most interesitng Hurricane I've tracked in my years. One positive note, the experimental windspeed product at NHC isn't still going up at 72 hours as of the latest run. That's somewhat encouraging. 115 can be handled. 150 is another ball of wax entirely. Shear has increased to 20knots probably due to the ULL to the NW. If my Bastardi 101 is right, that puts it in a shear zone quadrant rather than a ventilation one.

If the majority of the Global tracks are hitting on the right scenario, we should all be in great shape for supplies. There will be plenty of time to shop and have everything replenished in potentially affected areas - especially if we're still tracking Isidore NEXT WEEKEND! Imagine that.

In the words of the immortal Rick Flair from days gone by, "Now we go to school."

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
ACK!
      #4340 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:42 AM

http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbs

Bastardi's out this morning. His take is a bit more ominous than yesterday. He's switched his alliance to Option #2 from the 3 he put forth yesterday and likes the European's idea that we may be tracking Isidore a week from today as a major storm. It's worth the read and forces me to take the storm a little more seriously. I've been going with a MS Coast ladnfall with a liklihood it would be further east. Hmmmm.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4341 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:43 AM

Well if this thing sits out in the GOM for a week or so there are going to be some really tight behinds along all the gulf coast... still can't see it above a Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 at this time.... don't like playing the waiting game... not at all... wears you out big time... we need this thing to make its mind up, screw the steering currents, and just go somewhere... period... ULL off to the west should enhance out flow in the NW quadrant... another factor, if it does just sit out in the GOM for an extended period upwelling certainly will be a factor and inhibit strengthening over time..... other than it dissipating, which I doubt happens, the best for all is for it to keep moving....

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FlaRebel
Unregistered




Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4342 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:55 AM

Don't know alot about all of this as a newbie, but the National Weather Service seems to think Izzy will still be a player on Wed, 25 Sep as it creeps toward the FL Panhandle. Here's the link.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Great overnight posts all...
      #4343 - Fri Sep 20 2002 07:56 AM

Hi Everyone - I am a novice and have been following you guys quietly for years. Today I have a question . . . when I look at the various loops and stills I am confused: I can't see how Isidore will miss the trof! It appears that the trof is in perfect position to shove him to the west! Please help me understand!

Thanks,
Cathy

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html


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