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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Hey Shawn...
      #4202 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:08 PM

I think the only remote possibility it becomes a western Gulf storm - one with an appreciable effect on Texas anyway - is if it comes at you guys from the South. I don't see a wnw track into Texas in the cards. Here's why: There's a big pool of cold air spilling down from Canada that's going to make it into the southern plains in the next couple of days. Unless Isidore can somehow come underneath the second trof and around the backside of the 3rd - not likely with a SW flow in front of the 2nd - it's not going to be able to bust through. However, if it was to stick around the YP for a few days as some of the models have hinted, and then stalled out off the Mexican Coast (which also doesn't look too likely), it would have to begin that northward trek at some point. Right now, I'd have to go with a < 10% chance of TX landfall. Ultimately, if Izzy has its sights set on the US, it would probably be east of here. I went with MS once I got in the game, but if I had to lay $$$ on it, I'd bet somewhere east of there.

Steve


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: HF is right in the last thread,
      #4203 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM

Shawn, it is entirely possible that Izzy could end up in the west GOM. If the AVN solution is realized a pressing ridge building down from Montana could force him westward. It's still not October and storms certainly go west to that portion of the GOM. But since it's currently in the area near Cuba and the Keys, the people here are getting excited. I don't dispute that landfall could happen in the western GOM. It is one of the scenarios that should be considered. Unfortunately, the models that take it W or SW don't go out that far to show the end result on the coast. Right now the SE GOM meandering seems likely. We have time to watch as the storm moves in another direction. BTW, Izzy was moving north for a bit, more like a stairstep, but near due north just the same. Now he is back to 300degrees. Cheers!! Steve H.

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4204 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM

I'm only saying that there are other options other than the obvious. I'm kind of a loner in a way. I like to pay more attention to the "underdogs" and try and figure out how they can pull off the upset, to put it in sports terms. I hate always going with the favorite. It's too easy. That's why alot of times I seem off the wall with my comments.Sometimes I'm right; alot of times I'm wrong. The bottom line is that I look at EVERY possibility and not just the ones that the models are throwing out, because as we know, the models are not always right,either.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Hey Shawn...
      #4205 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:16 PM

Steve,
I didn't really think that you were talking to me at all, but I was just checking. I don't want to be viewed as a wishcaster, I forecast my scenarios based ont the way I see things. This is why I always back my stuff up with reasoning.

Also Steve, I'm betting on NE GOMEX at this time. There is considerable doubt, but only the latitude would have verify from the NHC forecast for Isidore to be picked up. Western GOMEX isn't a good bet at this point.

Kevin


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Hey Nick...
      #4206 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:18 PM

Last post on decorum from me. I'm not going anywhere. I've been here for 3 years and earned my status as probably the only +200 poster on the site since the format change. Since more than half the time I'm not even logged in, I don't even have the right status.

Don't get me wrong. I like reading everyone's opinions too, but post a link, name, idea or something if you're making a call. If you think a storm is going west or north or east or whatever, at least you can say why. I don't think that's too much to ask. If you or me or whoever is wrong because there's a sat jump or something, the pros will correct us. I don't think that's too much to ask. The hosts give us the ability to post anonymously. The least we can do (when we're posting anonymously) is to put a little backup don't you think? That's what makes this board so much better than evrerything else on the weather web (including GOPBI and TWC). We've got the killers: Glen, Jason Kelly, Ed, HF, cycloneye - all kinds of gurus. The least we can offer is a little quality.

That's it for me on my anti-wishcast posts for the season. If anyone wants to discuss, PM me. Gotta go check the 8 update!

Steve (will be logged in next time).


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4207 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:19 PM

this link illustrates what Steve was saying about a jump north

yuu can block that last fram where the image is viewed "closer in" to not get that skip look to it. Or just go fram by frame manually.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

troy


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4208 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:19 PM

Just to slightly change the tone, looking at the infrared and Key West rader side-by-side, I will say the eye is right smack in the center of the heavy convection. Very well developed Cat1, don't you think?
Western Cuba would not be a very nice place to be for the next couple of days........
Joe in JAX


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4209 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:22 PM

I think the AVN is a good solution as any of the others right now. However, The AVN only goes so far. It seems that the most likely event is that Izzy will eventually get far enough north to catch one of these troughs. There seems to be a pattern of pretty deep troughs digging south right now. Most likely, one of these will grab Izzy and redirect him NE at some time into Florida or the Central GOM. In the long term, I don't think that sliding into Mexico or Southwest Texas is a very likely event for Izzy's finale.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Thu Sep 19 2002 08:28 PM)


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
18z GFDL is....
      #4210 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:23 PM

...interesting, to say the least...and a good compromise from the various opinions floating around...check it out...

http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002091918-isidore10l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4211 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:24 PM

Well Isidore's gonna knock Havana a littel then head into the Gulf. Potential for worst case is there, but I'm hoping against it. I'm watching it.

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: 18z GFDL is....
      #4212 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:29 PM

Well, we know it's just a model. But it did shift back to the east a little(again ). It's got a little bit of everything for everybody to chew on, in fact! Really screaming along at the end. Think it will be in that much of a hurry?

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Back in full effect - logged in though :)
      #4213 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:34 PM

Here are today's official coordinates (starting late last night).

03 GMT 09/19/02 19.7N 79.5W
09 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 80.8W
15 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 81.2W
21 GMT 09/19/02 20.6N 82.0W
8 pm ET 09/19/02 20.7N 82.3W

Hope I didn't tick anyone off - wasn't my intent. So as of today, we're now at 1 degree further north and 2.8 degrees further west. Overall, that's west of WNW. I looked at the Goes 8 and saw (excluding the sat jump) what gave it that "north" looking jog. Apparently the coldest cloud tops were rotating around a bit asymetrical there for a time and the bulk of them rotated to the north side of the storm. Then they moved a bit more around the west side and kind of evened out again. If you go to the Goes 8, you can see the general WNW movement over the last 30 frames. For instance, late this afternoon, the CDO was taking aim at Isle of Youth (S of Cuba). It's been nudging toward it ever since. The entire envelope is pushing WNW with time.

Btw, credit goes to the good people who post here. I may have never learned of the IR tricks that screw up night vision if I hadn't happend upon CFHC. To me, Radar is the best tool, and visible satelites are 2nd. The IR Shortwave works good at nighttime if there is an exposed center.

It's all good. Saints rule!

Steve



--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: 18z GFDL is....
      #4214 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:34 PM

That run of the GFDL is in line with my thinking. Maybe a little further west first. Not a prospect I really want to see happen.

--------------------
Jim


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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4215 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:38 PM

He seems to be just about stationary from looking at the Key West radar loop. Is the low to the west of him the reason why the trough will not pick him up? The trough is way down to the Texas/Mexico border. My first thinking was the low to his west would have pushed him north, then the trough would have picked him up.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Jason....18Z GFDL
      #4216 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:41 PM

notice the different flavor of the GFDL. It takes him NW, then back toward the Yucatan in a full Loop. Then to the NNE coming in the Big Bend of Fl. REalize that any deviation of this by a dgree or two could put this in Sarasota or tallahassee. But what a difference in the approach from the 12Z!! Means that the 1st trough misses and the second trough lifts hin NNE as the trough lifts towards the great lakes. BTW, the sortwave is digging pretty far south firing off t'storms near the Mexican east coast. If the ULL over the BOC fills quickly, the trough will blow thru the GOM. Cheers!! Steve H.

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Bruce
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL
      #4217 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:45 PM

Steve, so the ULL is holding back the trough? Why is this ULL not moving him North?

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Gofins13
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 9
Loc: Crystal River,Fl.
Re: 18z GFDL is....
      #4218 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:48 PM

Yes,That is intresting! The GFDL has been pretty consistent!

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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL
      #4219 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:54 PM

The LBAR seems to be going the same route as the 18Z GFDL, with the BAMD, BAMM, and A98E all stalling, looping, or at least doing something else with it.

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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Question for Jason K
      #4220 - Thu Sep 19 2002 08:55 PM

What affect will the moon phasing toward full coupled with Fall equinox on the 23rd have on the tides. Especially for Cuba? Just wondering for a learning standpoint
thanks
Troy



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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Question for Jason K
      #4221 - Thu Sep 19 2002 09:03 PM

Gotta be honest here...I have no idea...

But I will dig around and see if I can find an answer...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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