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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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usufruct
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL
      #4242 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:00 PM

No, perhaps I didn't explain my views properly. The Cuban government was not created by US right wingers, it has been harrassed by US right wingers, which harrassment has caused some problems for the Cuban economy, particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, they are coping fairly well. Now let's drop this topic and talk about Isadore.
Robin


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bsnyder
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Jason I found info on tides
      #4243 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:02 PM

On the GFDL animation site you linked to, what do the green and blue shadings signify?

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I'm a real novice!


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Jason I found info on tides
      #4244 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:04 PM

Not stupid at all...
The light green is areas of depression force winds, the blue is TS force winds...

There is a scale on the left side...



--------------------
Jason Kelley


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
my take tonight
      #4245 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:07 PM

For what its worth my thoughts on Izzy tonight is that once it crosses Cuba, it will continue on basically whatever track mode its has been in up to that point, provided the system is moving at least 10 mph.... rationale is that this is a big storm with plenty of inertia, and nothing in the area to really stop it from progressing in its general direction... no big blocking high any where to be seen in the immediate future... if the trough stalls, and opens up a path for the system, the strong southerly flow will influence the system northward... this is basically what happened with Camille... with one exception... Camille was supposed to hit the Florida panhandle and not the MS coast... we were told all day that the system was going to go off to the NNE or NE... never did, and the rest is history...

If this comes to fruition, and another added factor to my rationale, there is a really good southerly flow out of the GOM tonight into the northern Gulf Coast and this should prevail for the next several days... this is going to influence the system to continue on a basically northward trajectory.... also the ULL off to the west might also influence the northerly track. Now where it will ultimately end up I really can't say, but I would not rule out anything from New Orleans to Panama City.... best guest AL/Fl line... another factor in my forecast is its logical from a climatological perspective..

Once thing I vividly remember about Camille is the really strong southerly wind flow we had consistenly for three days prior to impacting the MS coast...

I don't buy the GFDL at all even though it been rather consistant of late, I just don't think its going to loop... looking at the recent IR loop the system continues to track along on a steady path from wnw to nw...

There have been some outstanding post over the past 24 hours, it has taken me about an hour to read them all, congratulations to everyonel for the outstanding job...

and there is nothing wrong with wishcasting, just remember sometimes you get what you wish for... as for me... I just hope it goes off to the east of MS... our shore line is just too shallow to deal with tides 12-15 feet, which could be expected with a strong CAT 3... my house is 20 feet above sea level and I'm right on the beach in Biloxi...

I said for the past day or so it would be in the western panhandle, and I'm still sticking with it... if I'm wrong I can eat crow with the best of em...


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Troy2
      #4246 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:07 PM

Troy im in the same boat as you are waiting for the cat3 in bermuda, But i gota say if you didnt surf gustav you missed out man it was last tuesday. we 6-9 footers rolling in to the stuart area with an off shore wind. I surfed walton rocks. there were perfect lines and gaping barrels i saw my friend inside one it was sweet. Sweet up into the point i got sucked over the lip broke my board in half with my face and got pounded into the reef below. It was sick kinda like north shore, stuff you dont see in florida.

Edited by Robert (Thu Sep 19 2002 10:08 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
The Cuban thing...
      #4247 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:11 PM

My Maclenny niece and nephew got to go to Cuba with their dad 2 summers ago (12 and 6 then). Though they're half Cuban and grew up in Florida (Lockport now), they don't speak a lick of Spanish. They got to see a different way of life that they had to feel through since they couldn't read or speak it. Bucket showers. Old American cars. All of that. They enjoyed the experience, but were none too sad to get back home to NE Florida.

If there is something good to say about Cuba besides that I love Spanish people and Cubans it's that Cuba has been able to acheive a greater than 98% literacy rate - though I'm sure over half of what they learn is indoctrination . In Louisiana, it would probably be a good thing if 50% of the college students were actually literate .

segweigh (sp) - You hate to see any poor countries get hit by natural disasters. Jamaica and Isle of Youth have gotten clobbered but truly are lucky Isadore was only developing and not a Mitch. Props out to everyone reading this in the Islands. Good luck to everyone in Cuba for the next couple of days too!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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rick in Mobile
Unregistered




relax, if U are not a Mobilian
      #4248 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:16 PM

okay ya'll...cut and paste my posts...either rickoshade or rick in mobile.....all the same...this thing is gonna do what I said....stay on a wnw track...stall in the southern gulf...and smack us with a cat 4-5....(Mobile)

this is NOT wishcasting...the second front will catch it and spin it north...

however...SHAWN...there is a chance it will HIT U....

the same chance that has any team beating ALABAMA....

now, on the serious side...

cat 2 tonight..

cat 3 hitting fidel...playing his fiddle...

cat 3 in the southern gulf....sorta catching it's breath...and waiting for front #2...

then off to the races, with fresh warm water, nice winds aloft....smacking dear ol Mobile with cat 4-5 winds...

ya know...many have talked about supercanes....this may be the one...yeah, that's the ticket...a category 6!

zzzzzzz


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troy2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
Re: The Cuban thing...
      #4249 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:19 PM

Robert

Surfed Monday, Tuesday and even that wedesday in between classes. Had 2 exams that Tuesday so only gotto surf one measley hour at Patrick AFB. A swell from about Bermuda is at the perfect angle for Brevard and I would guess your area. Ever hit Reef RD?

Troy


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: The Cuban thing...
      #4250 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:19 PM

Speaking of Cuba,
I just heard a local news report that the NHC will be allowed to fly USAF Recon. planes in their air space. Evidently this is done on a case by case basis. I imagine this would be a good case.


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bsnyder
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Re: Thanks Jason
      #4251 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:19 PM

I had the window shoved all the way to the right....never saw that scale on the left. I think I need to get a bigger monitor!

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Hey Rick
      #4252 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:23 PM

My memory is going bad... didn't OU just beat the Tide... hmmmm .... next up for another Tide lost... USM Golden Eagles... but look at it this way Rick... yall can count it as a Bowl game... hehe

I've been saying all season that I though New Orleans was more due for a major storm than anyone else along the northern Gulf Coast... Boy if Izzy hit there it would make my season... nothing personal Steve... but would like have a long term forcast right once in a while...


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usufruct
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 7
Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4253 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:24 PM

Well I suppose they're going to be picking up alot of grapefruit off the ground on the Isle of Youth in the next few days and rushing it to the juice plant. An average size grapefruit tree can bear over half a ton of fruit, so an 80 mph breeze can turn a tree into a broken down bush.
As to Isadore's course, Bastardi said that big storms do what big storms are supposed to do - head north, and Frank's recent post substantiates that thought. If I lived between Appalachacola and Pass Christian I would be seriously contemplating a visit to Aunt Margaret's in Birmingham about now.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Troy2
      #4254 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:25 PM

i agree totally with troy but i live in the panhandle in pensacola an never expirenced a hurricane. but i think u have a very good point hopefully wont be another camille though keep up the good work

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: my take tonight
      #4255 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:26 PM

It seems like the forecast over the next 48-72 hours is one of persistence. Will Izzy continue to head WMN-NW. The general consensus is yes, he will. I think the key moment for everyone along the Gulf coast is about 60 hours from now, give or take.

At that point, does he stall, or does his inertia carry him on that path? Is he tugged N or NE by one of the approaching troughs, or does the AVN validate and he moves WSW? It seems to me that right around the 60 hour mark, these questions are gonna start being answered one after another. Right now, and I have no compelling reason to believe this, but something about the latest GFDL run has me thinking it may be on to something. Maybe it's just the PC way that it is now incorporating all the options

Anyway, I doubt if we'll see anything new in the 11 update other than an extension of the current forecast track...persistence.


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL
      #4256 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:30 PM

AGREE STORMHOUND ..................... ANYBODY EVER BEEN TO IRAQ..? I FLEW HALF WAY AROUND THE WORLD JUST TO SMOKE A CAMEL................... BACK TO BAGHDAD .

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Doesn't have to be a Camille gang
      #4257 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:34 PM

and it won't but guess what... a strong Cat 3 is going to do tremendous amount of damage, especially if it hits in shallow coastal areas and people will probably die.... so if this thing comes in as a CAT 3... it is not going to be good... where ever it goes.... now if it gets to CAT 4... geesh... I don't even want to think of that...

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: Jason....18Z GFDL
      #4258 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:36 PM

Thanks for the chat today.
I enjoyed all that I learned.
Hurricanes have always been a challange and will always continue to be..
Maybe the weather left in God's hands is all we need.

Goodnight and thanks again

Sue

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Isidore Now A Hurricane
      #4260 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:39 PM

COLLEEN I WAS POSTING DIFFERENT SENERIOS THAT ISADORE COULD TAKE IN THE PAST THREAD. I DIDNT SAY BROWNSVILLE WOULD BE HIT, I SAID SOUTH OF THERE NEAR TAMPICO BUT I GAVE OTHER REASONS HOW IT COULD MOVE NNE BY THE 2ND TROUGH. I DEFIDENTLY NOT GIVING A OFFICAL FORCAST FOR SOMETHING 6 DAYS OUT. I WOULD BE OUT OF A JOB ,.LOL. SCOTTSVB

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Doesn't have to be a Camille gang
      #4261 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:41 PM

Just saw TWC's weekly planner. They seemed to be leaning toward a FL Panhandle strike--based on their forecast on Tuesday of Rain/Wind for that area...but Paul Goodloe repeatedly said stay tuned as it wasn't set in stone.

On a side note, I can guarantee without question that if Izzy threatens Central Florida at any point, that just before my power goes out TWC will be showing that damn show "Atmospheres"!!


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Last couple of things before the update comes in - gotta go play some Halo!
      #4262 - Thu Sep 19 2002 10:42 PM

troy2 - great article find on the harvest moon. Next full moon is Saturday - SEPT. 21 13 59 (Noon?). It provides for an interesitng phenomina since Saturday will be the full moon, about the equinox and a Cat 3 storm. Hmmm.

Frank P - Great post as always. Thank you too.

Rick - I drank to your post. LMAO as always.

Steve


--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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