andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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the reason why that happens though is a lot of people have never been through a bad one. Last weekend a good example. we had t/s warnings. i took the boat out, picked up loose items (had can goods and water since june) and nothing happened. am i upset.. Heck no.. glad nothing happened. but the new comers think well thats all there is to it. the next on comes through and they think they are seasoned veterens. then when things turn to @#$% in a handbag its to late. NEVER underestatment these babies. it is always better to error on the side of good judgement.
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2002
the last fix from an Air Force plane near 2300 UTC reported a
minimum pressure of 981 mb. On its way home...a dropsonde launched
from the plane reported winds above the surface ranging from 90 to
95 knots. Since then... satellite images have indicated that Isidore
has become stronger as indicated by T-numbers which have
increased to 4.5 and 5.0. Initial intensity is adjusted to 75 knots
at this time with an estimated pressure of 979 mb. The next plane
will be in the area at 0600 UTC.
All parameters appear to be favorable for strengthening. Isidore is
becoming a large cyclone with an expansive outflow...feeder bands
and is moving over the higher upper-oceanic heat content of The
Basin. In addition...SHIPS model indicates that 4 of 5 required
parameters for rapid intensification are met. Therefore...Isidore is
forecast to become a major hurricane in the extreme southeast Gulf
of Mexico.
A hint of the eye can be observed from both Havana and Key West
radars. These observations combined with satellite fixes give an
initial motion of 305 degrees at 7 knots...which is basically the
same as 6 hours ago. No change in track is expected for the next 48
hours and Isidore will be spending Friday crossing the westernmost
portion of Cuba. Thereafter...the forecast track becomes highly
uncertain. Global models slow the system down to a halt in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico as steering currents collapse due to the
passage of a mid-level trough to the north. At longer range...all
models move the hurricane on a general northward track except the
NCEP Global Model. The latter moves the hurricane southwestward
toward the Bay of Campeche. This solution is probably due to a
strong low which the model develops just north of the Bahamas. It is
tempting to go with the model solution since this model has
been very reliable. But for now...it is better to keep the hurricane
with a northwestward drift beyond 48 hours until the steering
pattern becomes more clear.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0300z 21.0n 82.5w 75 kts
12hr VT 20/1200z 21.7n 83.5w 85 kts
24hr VT 21/0000z 22.5n 84.5w 95 kts
36hr VT 21/1200z 23.0n 85.5w 100 kts
48hr VT 22/0000z 23.5n 86.5w 105 kts
72hr VT 23/0000z 24.0n 87.0w 105 kts
Hmmmmm......
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Anyone,
What are the aqua-blue flashes/lights in the sky during a hurricane? During Hurricane Andrew I noticed frequent flashes of aqua-blue...thought it was lightening but no bolts or anything...Anyhow, whoever gets this storm...look for those lights they are amazing and eerie at the same time.
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Looking at Key West radar makes me think Isle of Youth may take direct hit on SW corner, which leaves rest of island in NE quad. Yuck! May not be a great night to be in Keys either, big batch of storms seems to be holding together with their name on it. Best of luck to people in all those areas, lay low, and keep dry. These things can really scare the wits out of you esp. at night.
Joe in Jax
The Jags can't lose this weekend.......because it's bye week.
Gators on the other hand, well it could be bye week for them too 
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Its already up to 85mph with 979mb pressure....I'm thinking if this next recon doesn't find cat 2 strength winds then we'll at least have them by morning. Isle of Youth looks like its gonna get pounded. Beautiful eye showing on the Key West long range radar. But then again, I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder as I'm sure the folks on the Isle of Youth think its pretty ugly.
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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this hurricane could very well strike the west central coast of florida, after it stalls north of cuba for a couple of days. as a strong cat, 3 hurricane or a 4.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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yep bye-bye zook... did steve know something???
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troy2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
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In reply to:
i agree totally with troy but i live in the panhandle in pensacola an never expirenced a hurricane. but i think u have a very good point hopefully wont be another camille though keep up the good work
Hope it didnt sound like I wanted you guys up there to get blasted by it.
Was merely speaking of a long period swell hittin the beaches up there. Because of the wind direction, fetch etc., the coast there would receive the swell much better than the FL west coast.
Mitch was such an intense storm that a big swell made it up from off Honduras through the channel and onto the beaches of Pensacola.
here is a link for projected swell form Izzy
http://www.surfinfo.com/html/fnmoc.html
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Anyone,
What are the aqua-blue flashes/lights in the sky during a hurricane? During Hurricane Andrew I noticed frequent flashes of aqua-blue...thought it was lightening but no bolts or anything...Anyhow, whoever gets this storm...look for those lights they are amazing and eerie at the same time.
Does anyone know what I am talking about?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I see that all the time with night storms... what I know for a fact is that when electrical power transformers on power poles blow up during the storm they make some spectular light shows... blue was one of the dominant color from the several that I have experienced through many hurricanes..... but I'm not sure if that's what you're referring to...
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I imagine it is a combination of both...for me it was facinating to watch the flashes and then see the clouds swirling by above.
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
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Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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When the effects of Floyd hit E Central Florida, all night long we kept seeing the same "aqua-blue effect" you were talking about. I also didn't know what it was until the transformer in my neighbors yard blew. What a beautiful yet irritating light it put off. Irritating, because we didn't have power for almost 5 days. But that's my best guess for what that light is. You can see transformers blow from a ways away. Hope that helps. 
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Oh yeah, sorry about that Scott. I told you that I was confused by your forecast, didn't I? I guess I just couldn't pull all the information out of it, analyze it and actually figure it out.
BTW....I would also hate to see you out of a job if you forecasted that anyone was out-of-the woods. Where do you work anyway? Are you on TV? NWS Ruskin? Airport? Inquiring minds wanna know. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Latest probability product from the shows NO with an increase from 3 to 6. Buras also went up from 4 to 7 and Gulfport went from 3 to 5... Apalachicola stayed at 5, PC went from 4 to 5. and Mobile went from 2 to 4... GOM 28 89 went up from 9 to 12... overall the NO and surrounding area went up basically 3% while the panhandle basically stayed the same and the west coast of FL went down a tad...
Maybe not all that significant but certainly some food for thought.
Now I know Jason doesn't like this product that much but to me is certainly something that you can factor in making your overall assessment and forecast... Let me tell you this, if I get a 99% probablilty rating I'm taking it serious.. hehe
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Dana
Registered User
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Posts: 4
Loc: Naples, Fl.
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Thats a first. All three main channels here are showing evacuation routes. Has the myoptic view of "It'll never happen here" changed? Intresting.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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the straw that stirs the pot... hehe
Hey, I wanna know too....
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Dana, you get a Cat 3 storm in the GOM not all that far from the Fl west coast and models are clueless to where this thing is going... I think it pretty smart and logical... can never be prepared enough in my opinion... if I was in west fl I 'd watch this thing like a hawk.... regardless of what everone else is saying...
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Probabilities usually go up when a storm is advancing towards an area. It means nothing, unless it states >50%.. With the storm heading wnw they also have to extend the probablities westerly. You can see that Miami, Fort Pierce and even points further north on the east coast of florida are covered... The is covering their bases, as the models always mishandle Gulf Storms.. Especially gulf storms this time of the year... The Gulf always is a problem for the and also for the models, so I wouldnt put much stock into either at this point.. Just take a wait and see attitude, and hope the damn thing drifts west or wsw.. (Yeah right).. Either way, I am hoping that it lands somewhere a way from me.. Been through a Cat 5 hurricane already.. Someone elses turn.. 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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1. Official forecast calls for a nudge north Sunday PM. Forecast for 72 hours is 87 west. May be stall point or beginning of trip to NE Gulf.
2. TPC is adamant the trof misses Isadore.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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For Anyone out there who has never been close to a cat 4 or 5, we are in Central Florida and when Andrew hit Miami, we had tropical force winds for over a day and a half and we were 300 miles away. No matter where this storm goes after Cuba, everyone on the Gulf will feel it for a few minutes to a few days. If it gets any stronger than a Cat 2.
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