bsnyder
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 18
|
|
Okay, I'm trying to explain something to my mom. If this storm skirts the west coast of Florida, and stays just off shore, wouldn't the first winds felt in Tampa be from the East and pushing water OUT of the bays into the GOM? And then only as the storm moved north of the area, we'd start to get winds from the West?
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Is it a surprise to anyone that the models for an intensifying hurricane heading into the gulf are clueless ? The gulf is always a sore spot for the and the models that they depend upon. It should be of no surprise to those of you who track these storms year after year, that Gulf storms can be problematic. So stop freaking out, take a breath, this is just one of those storms. Can't control the storms, unless Colleen breaks out the Dynogel again..
|
Dana
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
Loc: Naples, Fl.
|
|
Agreed Frank. It's been so long here that everybody blows these storms off. As a Florida Cracker I've had 1 hit and a few brushes. I tell the skeptics to take a drive down I-75 at 70 mph and climb out on thier hood and see if they can stand up and stay there. Not likely of course. Now double that wind speed in your front yard. Better grab your boat anchor before venturing out though.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
I don't disagree with you but the last TS (Hanna) in the GOM went more west than most people predicted... and as I watched the system change to that slight westerly component, the probablities kept inching up more to the west over time... and it all started just like what's going on with Izzy... small increments.... now does 12% probability means that much... no, but if the trend continues it certainly might mean something in the future...
what you're looking for are consistent trends over time... will they change, of course... they'll go up and down with time... however, if they don't, then you need to take them a little more seriously... but they have to start with something
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Wow you were in Central Florida and had tropical storm force winds for two days ? I was in So Miami when Andrew passed, but I knew people in Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach that hardly felt any effect from Andrew.. Since Andrew was such a fast moving storm (around 16 MPH) the storm was only lasted for about 4-5 hours. I know because it was about 6am in the morning when I opened the door to my bathroom only to find my yard where my house use to be..
|
Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
|
|
cat three in 32 hours or less...cat three in gulf...stalls...heads north mobile...yadda yadda yadda...
this is the best weather site in the galaxy...and in all seriousness...i care about ya'll...but this one is gonna be a bad one..
question...doesn't it seem to you all to be rather small...is it a buzz saw like Andrew......or is it it's own special flavor...
ISADORE...
what a WIERD name...we shoulda known.
|
troy2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 227
Loc: cocoa beach
|
|
wouldnt it be funny if someone registered as ANON or Anonymous.
Ok need break from weather watching, maybe watsh my Sponge Bob Squarepants DVD
|
Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
|
|
Frank, I have to agree with you. Im not wishcaster at all, but this storm has been consistent going west more than predicted. Same as Hanna. I think landfall will be between Pensa and Pasc, (gut feeling). I have said this all along. I may be wrong and have to eat crow, but this hurricane has been consistent with its movement.
Southern
|
rickinmobile
Unregistered
|
|
we are weather wierdos....and boy do I LOVE it...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Thanks for your reply.. I hope you are correct, cause I would rather see this storm head in that direction anyway.. Saves me the headache of having to deal with the aftermath of the storm. 
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
I can't see this thing stalling in the northern GOM, maybe it might slow down or drift in the SE GOM after it passes Cuba but once it gets going again as it approaches either the north or north east gulf coast it's going to continue on that track... my opinion only..
Don't you just love talking to the ANONs... sure wish they had a name or something to identify them and their posts.... all them anons post alike and hard to tell em apart... hey, maybe there is only one anon and that is his name... hmmmm, so that is why the posts are so similar... hehe
|
Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
|
|
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
Latest long range radar loop from Key West. It looks to me as if the center is already west of the Isle of Youth. I'm new at this, but it seems that if the eye went East of the Isle, Floridians would really worry. If not, don't shoot...Like I said I'm new at this! 
--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
|
RickinMobile
Unregistered
|
|
it's comin our way...ain't it?
|
Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
|
|
Im not sure about a direct hit, but very close.
Southern
|
PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
|
|
The only time I have seen blue lightning was during the landfall of Tropical Storm Keith here in Tampa Bay the day before Thanksgiving in 1988. Gordon came by just off the West Coast of Florida before running out of land in Cedar Key in 2001, but did so in the day, as did Gabrielle.
|
Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
|
|
I think its still a tad south of the Isle of Youth...looks like it could split the place down the middle at its current track. Whatever the case they probably aren't having a very good night there.
|
PaulyAce2002
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 11
Loc: Largo, Florida, United States
|
|
My bad...Gordon was 2000, Gabby was 2001.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Rick you da man... love your posts especially when I'm drinking a cold one or two...
Southern... we need to keep watching the probabilities.. they keep going up I might start getting a little more concerned... but I'm not there yet.... I am still sticking with my Fl panhandle prediction, but no more west than AL/FL line, but still that is awfully close to Mobile... way to close for comfort with a CAT 3, if its gets that strong and I think it certainly has the potential...
what I don't want to happen is for this thing to track more west towards NO cause that would not bode well for us on the MS coast...
Hey ANON... I've been in a CAT 5 too... Camille... I experienced 5 feet of storm surge in my house along with 200+ wind gusts and 180 mph sustained winds.....
|
Rickin Mobile
Unregistered
|
|
all the models put the thing right up our ##$%#
shoot...I hate it when I'm right!
|
Southern4sure
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 121
Loc: Land O Lakes, FL
|
|
My grandfather was an engineer while the bankhead tunnel was being built. The workers took their families into the tunner and it was sealed. He always said if another major hit, he would do it again. Safest place he said.
Southern
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
