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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic
      #41917 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:41 PM

Tropical Depression 5 has formed in the Central Atlantic, east of the Caribbean islands. Current model trends give it a chance to strengthen over the next few days as it moves west, with some models taking it slightly north of the islands, then moving it further west. The official NHC forecast brings a minimal hurricane to the northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic in 5 days. Beyond that, there is the potential for a threat to the SE United States in about a week's time, but that is well on down the line for now.



If TD 5 becomes Tropical Storm Emily, it would tie this season with about 5 others for the most activity in the Atlantic basin before the month of August; obviously, one more named storm would set the record outright for 2005. The wave behind TD5 along the African coast has the potential to also become a bit better organized over the next few days, but my hunch and the current activity may suggest that it would be the last such wave for awhile. Nevertheless, this season is shaping up to be a very active one, with warm waters and abnormally low shear across the entire basin.

Speaking in very general terms, mainly because I'm burnt out on Dennis, the most likely scenario is that TD5 will go out to sea beyond that, but that is still uncertain at the moment. Either way, I'd rather not think about it for a little while after Dennis. If the current trends hold we'll be forced to watch it, and it could affect the US.

Dennis is now down to tropical storm strength as it moves further into the heart of the US and is projected to slow down and likely cause a huge rain event in the Ohio River Valley. Damage reports from the Florida panhandle are likely to trickle in over the coming hours and days as crews reach the area and are able to survey damage and restore power to those affected by this major hurricane.

More to come soon.

Event Related Links

Dennis
MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images
Google Map Plot of Dennis along with Ivan
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis

Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
(Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis

Tropical Depression Five
Animated Model Plot of TD5


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Takingforever
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #41919 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:45 PM

Another day, another big problem. lol this year is looking alot like last year. Here's to 2006, and no Hurricanes!

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EaglezFan42
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 43
Loc: St Petersburg, FL (Jungle Terr... 27.81N 82.74W
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: Takingforever]
      #41920 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:47 PM

I think this year will be just like last....a new hurricane every weekend.

Woot for being from Philly!


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GBPaul
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #41921 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:51 PM

Hello All, I am back on via laptop and wireless modem.
Power is out and cable is dead.
We are located at the entrance to Tiger Point Country Club just east of Gulf Breeze. My House is within an 1/8th of a mile of the southern end of the Garcon Point Bridge. Eyewall hit with severe winds out of the NNE. I was here for Ivan and my area had stronger winds today... thankfully, for a much shorter time. Leading eyewall lasted approximately 40 -45 minutes and we had excessive tree damage. I was surprised at the number of trees downed in the Tiger Point area. We had roughly 15 minutes in the eye... absolute calm, but no blue skies like in Erin. Trailing edge was very short lived, 20 minutes, and winds were much less 70 - 75. There are homes and businesses in our area that are completely blown apart. Majority of structures faired well, but apparently some were very weak to the NE exposure and they failed. Surge was nothing compared to Ivan. Water pushed two to three blocks north of Santa Rosa Sound in the lower areas. Damage is a fraction of what Ivan did to this area. That being said, the wind speeds definitely seemed much greater than that of Ivan at his peak. Of course, it is easier to see the impact in daylight and I fell asleep at Ivan's peak. In our short recon trip we saw several businesses that were completely destroyed but for the most part I think we dodged a bullet. Iapologize if I have not posted this in the right section. Hopefully someone will paste it to were it should be.


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st.pete boy
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: GBPaul]
      #41922 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:54 PM

simply unbelievable - this trail of hurricanes is diabolical beyond my comprehension! God help us who have been affected

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: GBPaul]
      #41924 - Sun Jul 10 2005 10:55 PM

GBPaul, this is the right place for any stories from Dennis for the time being, and thanks for sharing your story. I hope that everything turns out well for you and everyone else in your region, as Dennis likely caused similar damage to many such areas along its path...as well as some not so close. St. Marks, about 20 miles south of Tallahassee -- and 200 miles from where the storm made landfall -- is now under 3-4 feet of water due to storm surge up Apalachee Bay, with many portions of US 98 in the bay under water right now. CNN has a video of the area available on their website at this time; it just goes to show you how far-reaching the impacts of a relatively small storm like Dennis can reach.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: st.pete boy]
      #41925 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:00 PM

NHC has TD 5 as a Hurricane by Friday, north of the Dominican Republic.

Some of you may find this article interesting
The Case Against Florida


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FLMary
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 1
Loc: Shalimar, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #41926 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:01 PM

I'm in the Ft Walton Beach area and we got lucky with just minor roof damages. We did not have electricity for about 6 hours. I pray for those to the west of me who got the full impact of Dennis.

(I'm a long-time lurker and decided it's time to start posting).


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: Clark]
      #41927 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:08 PM

I just can not believe what I am hearing,They say there will be another TS most likely by tommorow afternoon.Then another wave after that.What is going on here???It is July 10th for God's sake!!!If this keeps up and Ft Laud/Miami does not get hit,I will live here till I die,for this would be a blessed place,Protected by a higher power.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: EaglezFan42]
      #41930 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:12 PM

I certainly hope not , we were hit by 2 three weeks apart.

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SeeSaw99
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 9
Loc: Tempe, AZ
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #41931 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:14 PM

NHC discission on TD5 out...pretty interesting...forecast 75 kt hurricane by 120 hours

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GBPaul
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #41932 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:22 PM

As I sit here listening to my generator running, all I can say is we ahve had enough. Yet, when you look at the waves heading over from Africa like a Conga line, you know it ain't over yet. My son asked me if I could take down our plywood and I had to tell him "not yet, I want to see what TD 5 is going to do. We are 3 for four in our area this year. Certainly, some of these are going to just go somewhere else.

I am a home builder and if I don't want anymore then I doubt anyone else around here does.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: st.pete boy]
      #41934 - Sun Jul 10 2005 11:47 PM

you know its getting bad when the 2-yr old in your house can say the word hurricane, and point to it on tv. But this is amazing considering we didn't even get the "C" storm until August last year. Looks like 2005 may work its way into the record books as well.

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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: Jamiewx]
      #41935 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:04 AM

This one should be fairly interesting to watch....looks like bad news for Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and the coastal United States.

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: Jamiewx]
      #41936 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:06 AM

i don't believe this..im sitting here on long island watching all the damage reports come in to TWC and they show tropical depression 5...i really hate to say this but here comes Emily. NHC has TD#5 going thru The Lesser Antilles as a TS, PR as a Hurricane, and brushing DR as a hurricane before Emily makes her dash for the Bahamas(?) and really unfortunatley, the Florida peninsula(?)..this track is a little further south than the track of Frances and much similar to Jeanne before she made her little loop. Good luck folks.

web page

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Mon Jul 11 2005 11:14 AM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: bn765]
      #41937 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:07 AM

I may REALLY have to watch this one. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025038.shtml?5day

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Mon Jul 11 2005 12:11 AM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: SeeSaw99]
      #41938 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:16 AM

Hi I am a new user. Hope to provide information in the best way I can to this well run website.


The discussion rebuilds the Ridge that took Dennis to the east of South Florida by the time it gets to Hispanola and Puerto Rico, causing a more westerly path. Mr. Bastardi at Accuweather also said this apparently.


While anything can happen in over the week or so it would take to get really close to threatening the US, it would seem South Florida up to the Carolinas are in the bullseye.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #41939 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:22 AM

I lived in Miami for almost 25 years and I was only effected by Hurricane Andrew. So I can tell you though certain hurricane seasons have more storms then others and some were quite active, but while threatened by hurricane Andrew was the only one I remember experiencing. Of course then I moved to Orlando 5 years ago and Orlando hadnt had a hurricane for a long time (some stated 20-30 years) and we had three in one year. I guess what I am trying to say is just because it is an active year doesnt mean you will be hit, even in South Florida.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Back in Palm Harbor [Re: MikeC]
      #41940 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:23 AM

Well... for those people who might be curious, the drive from Atlanta to Palm Harbor was... wet. I really have no idea how much rain I drove through (Left around 3:30PM), but the rain stopped once I made it to Florida. The wind wasn't too bad, but it still made for a few gusts that rocked the car from time to time.

Anyway, I hope everyone is safe and sound, and I'm not looking forward to number 5. Which I see formed in the time I was out driving.

BTW, I'm very happy my wind prediction was off, If I'm going to be wrong, I'll take being wrong of being too intense every day of the weak, because that means less danger (not no danger, but less)

take care all
Time to find a place with air conditionining, as mine has been out since Last Tuesday....

-Mark

--------------------
TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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Mike N
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms In Central Atlantic [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #41941 - Mon Jul 11 2005 12:24 AM

How many miles in 1 deg lat/long. And how is a statute mile different from a nautical. I read something the other day saying "50 nautical miles; 65 statute miles or vice versa. Thanks for any insight.

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