Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Pam beat me to it, a flight is scheduled
Code:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0105A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 12.2N 55.2W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
A G-IV MISSION FOR 14/0000Z.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Pam beat me to it, a flight is scheduled
Code:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0105A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 12.2N 55.2W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
A G-IV MISSION FOR 14/0000Z.
where do you get this info?
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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While I was in Florida for business I got to see a speech given by Jim Lushine. To be honest I didn't buy into his theory much. Yes, true, there is a pattern that shows when Florida receives above average rain in May there have not been hurricanes. His theory is based on the position of the Bermuda high.
Now...my problem with this theory...it's based on less than a hundred years of data. The Atlantic ocean has been producing hurricanes for tens of thousands of years. Some things you can use trends to predict (such as traffic on the highway will be worse during rush hour - because we have a complete history of traffic from the time the interstate was made). Other things you cannot. In the case of tropical weather you are only looking at a fraction of a percent of the history of weather to base your conclusions. If we looked at only a fraction of a percent of that recorded data..let say this year - we'd conclude that June and July are very active for tropical weather and that heavy rains in May in Florida mean a very active Gulf season. Obviously this isn't enough time to base any conclusions on. It would be like only using a weekend in 1947 to base our traffic prediction. It was a weekend - and long before traffic was a real issue.
All theories are relative to the data they are derived from. In the case of weather theory...we are only working with a tiny fraction of the true amount of weather history. To accurately predict weather using trends alone I think we'd need to look back several thousand years..not just the last century - especially given the first half of the last century was the technological dark ages.
Okay...you can flame my thoughts now.
Derek
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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national hurricane website under recon
www.nhc.noaa.gov
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well they posted it Sunday morning that they were going to fly out there on the 13th. Go to Today and see in last column about suspious area. Anyways its too bad that they cant fly out there tomorrow. Should be about 50-52W by 18Z. That is generally the farthest they will fly but the newer aircraft can go farther out. I guess they keep that based in the states.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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oh sorry, didnt even look until now cuz this a.m. someone said they werent
scheduled. guess i shouldda looked anyhow
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/AXNT20.KNHC
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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You know...i am sick of these storms. It's getting so you can't even make any plans anymore because you have to worry about some storm coming in every other week. When i first moved to florida in 1987, these storms were unheard of. They always went through the caribbean and turned right into the open atlantic and that was the trend for years. Occasionally one or two would get through because steering currents were just right, like Andrew, who was an August storm (The "A" storm named in August!). Pretty quiet through the years, a few bad storms ripping through the GOM or the Carolinas, but generally pretty quiet. Now we have cat 3's and cat 4's coming at us every other weekend! What the heck!? Whats so different about the atmosphere now that is making these things, 1) So many in number? 2) Intense as heck. 3) All aiming for Fla and the GOM? Can anyone explain that? Can someone tell me and others why all of a sudden Florida has become the worst place to live between June and October? The season ends in November, but the storms peak is usually August-Sep, early Oct.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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KIND OF EXPLAINS WHY NO EMILY YET...
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doug
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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damejune2 take a look at this article
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Quote:
damejune2 take a look at this article
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/
Thanks for the info! Guess i have to move out of this area unless i want to spend the next 15 years dealing with major hurricanes. That was a good article and it explains the abscence of storms the first 10 years i lived here. Think it's time for me and my wife to grab our kids and head North!!! Snow storms, ice storms and blizzards look pretty good right about now. Thanks again for the info!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Quote:
If only I had seen Gerry Rivers (aka Geraldo) fall on his kiester...that would have been the icing on the cake. So far, this is how many careers he's had:
*Talk Show host, investigative reporter, target for the Taliban (how did they keep MISSING him???), reporter for the War on Iraq, War on Terror, Michael Jackson enthusiast, the first guy to confirm that the Atlanta courthouse shooter had been caught, Natalee Holloway investigator, and now, apparantly, a meteorologist who fell on his kiester. What more could he do...never mind.
Colleen - girl, there isa good reason why we get a long - you crack me up!
Have a safe trip to Chicago. I go up that way about once or twice a year. LOVE it! We will hold down the fort for ya till you return.
Congrats on the addtions of the new "things"!!!
Did you get any bad bands in Lakeland over the weekend?
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Its a hot air thing... Politicians...Media... and I theorize that the Tsunami phenomenon, and whatever caused it also caused a geophysical reaction. But, Even if we get a year like last year and an early start this year, it does not mean that we are going to have a lot of canes come to Florida and land. It may be a lot of fish spinners later on in the season. My reasoning is that if the season determinant has increased its forward speed, the heat will draw off sooner bringing winter sooner. We hypothetically could have a first frost in the end of September rather than the end of November as usual. I do not believe that this year will be any more disasterous than last year unless we feed into the fenzied public and political reactions. Being aware does not mean being afraid. Being prepared does not mean boarding up every time a depression forms. I went to the store and bought perishable items that were on sale to avoid refridgeration losses for the stores. I did very good because the storm did not come our way, but I also had the canned stuff I prefer not to eat. I did not add to my budget this month due to this hurricane because I prepared a little each year. I may be dead wrong, but I believe numbers of systems does not equal numbers of disasters hitting the US coast line nor its territories.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Jamie -
What is your take on TD#5? This morning the and some models had it going more to the east, like towards Dominican Rep. and Haiti and possibly out to sea after that. Now, not even six hours later, they moved the track to the west and it looks as though it's coming right towards us again!!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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...and I'm sure in another six hours, it will be tracked someplace else, and then another six hours later, the track will change again. There is no use getting worked up at this point.... save your energy for later and you'll feel so much better. That's the beauty when something's so far away!
I know this wasn't directed to me, but it gave me the opportunity to make a general comment.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Actually, its my understanding that this is normal for Florida (yes above average hurricane activity per year)and that we have been in kind of a lull for many years. We appear to be back into a cycle where Florida is threatened more often. Being a native, I see many people who have moved down here under the perception of paradise, only to find out that hurricanes are no joke and paradise can easily turn to hell with one hurricane. While Winter Storms are frustrating at times, they do not even come close to the catastrophic damage hurricanes can and do provide. Also most people do not realize that Florida is the lightening capital of the world, and also is one of the top five states for tornadoes.
With more and more people moving here the costs of hurricanes will keep going up. Additionally, it takes longer and longer to recover, as larger populations do not not always equate to larger support infrastructures. Also economically speaking Florida has one of the lowest earnings per capita, and as a result we have more and more people purchasing and living in manufactured and/or trailer homes, inadequately built to withstand hurricane force winds and of course tornadoes.
Having been born and raised here, I always scratch my head and wonder why people want to move here. Its hot, muggy, buggy, conjested, overpopulated in some areas, and frankly the cost of living and earnings arent the best. Doesnt sound like paradise to me, but it is my home.
I realize this is kind of off topic, but economics and population growth are factors as they relate to hurricane disaster and recovery.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I appreciate all comments! We will try to stay calm, but my wife and i are freaked out by this! Last year was terrible as far as mental energy and i think that is where this is coming from. After the season ended, all i could think about was this season and it wasn't even Christmas yet. We are seriously thinking of moving out of here. Some people have nerves of steel when it comes to mother nature - i don't. I don't know how you guys/gals do it.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I am not qualified to give a professional answer, but i can tell you expect changes in the forecast track and in the models, as the data they intialize from continues to change. As Clark has said, it is way to early to comment on if and where this storm will affect the U.S.
Current forecast has the system crossing over the DR, which is a rather mountainous terrain, and it could disrupt the strength of the system considerably. It is just something to continue watching for now, hopefully we will know more later this week.
Quick note on that post above, Florida is no longer the world's lightning capital, Rwanda in central Africa claimed that title, however, we are close behind and are the lightning capital of the U.S.
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jul 11 2005 07:41 PM)
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jaxmike
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
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Or has TD5 been strengthening in the past couple of hours? I am still pretty new to reading the satellite images, but it appears to be north of the forecast track and strengthening in the past few hours.
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Quote:
Having been born and raised here, I always scratch my head and wonder why people want to move here. Its hot, muggy, buggy, conjested, overpopulated in some areas, and frankly the cost of living and earnings arent the best.
Hey now... hehe.. I grew up in NY and moved down here 2 years ago. I spent a couple years living on the south shore of Lake Ontario. And there were a handful of times I had to literally crawl out the top of a window to shovel snow away from my place so I could open the door. 6 feet of snow makes Florida a paradise to me! and I'm very glad to call Daytona Beach home now hurricanes and all!
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