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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Dennis and his sister Emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42245 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:04 PM

For the most part all who had to deal with Dennis got by pretty well. Mobile, Gulf Shores & Pensacola were hit hard by Ivan but got a small break with Dennis. The Destin area was impacted the most it seems by Dennis and for Bay County the beaches took a good hit as well as some flooding in the area. The counties to the east of Bay suffered more flooding / surge impacts that I would attribute to being in the "Big Bend" and the shape of the coast and the track of Dennis. If the "mets" could add to that then great. Anyway...take a break as I am sure we will be looking at Emily shortly on a very familiar path.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: damejune2]
      #42251 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:23 PM

Quote:

I am looking to get a weather station for my house.....what do you guys recommend? Obviously wireless and something that you can put up on a web page, but wha brands and how much is too much?




I spent a while researching this and bought the Davis Vantage Pro2 Wireless. The anemometer is rated to 150mph w/ the large cups and 175 if you get the small cups. This is greater than the competition. You can check out my weg page w/ weather data from the station....

http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather.html

and here is information about the station....

http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/WxStationInfo.html

If you decide to get one and need any help w/ the software, etc. send me an email.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: h2ocean]
      #42254 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:32 PM

how much did it cost to get it all up and running?

Will you come install one for me in Orlando? LOL

Nice storm panels!


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: emily [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42255 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:33 PM

it'd have to track very close to where Dennis went. the well-churned waters from Dennis run from just south of haiti, up along cuba, and off the west coast of florida. they're 2-3F cooler than they were, generally speaking. the waters are at support threshhold everywhere in the caribbean and gulf, but they can potentially stunt emily, especially if emily is trying to run over all the islands with high mountains.
latest ssd on t.d. 5 is double 2.5; it's had a partial CDO all day and now has an effectively complete one... 11pm they'll bump it up (otherwise they're playing games).
HF 0133z12july


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Mike N
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: h2ocean]
      #42258 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:36 PM

What's the best site for the latest model runs NOGAPS GFDL etc

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: Mike N]
      #42262 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:48 PM

Mike N -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ has most of them. Check the Links section of this website or my blogger profile for that link and a bunch more.

SC -- Apalachee Bay is very susceptible to storm surge, and Dennis passed close enough to the region to continually send waves into the bay from the coast of Cuba all the way until the time it passed north of Apalachicola. Coming in at high tide and being shaped like a cup to focus all of the wave energy did not help at all. The areas around St. Marks saw storm surge consistant with a direct hit from a category 3 hurricane; areas inland and to the east and west weren't that bad, but many portions of the roads there, near Alligator Point and Shell Point, and then all the way to Apalachicola are busted up and many buildings have sustained pretty substantial damage. Other than near the landfall point, this area probably saw the worst from Dennis (pending flooding concerns near Atlanta over the next few days).

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: Mike N]
      #42263 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:48 PM

There are several locations to obtain them:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/modules.php?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #42264 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:53 PM

Quote:

how much did it cost to get it all up and running?

Will you come install one for me in Orlando? LOL

Nice storm panels!




I checked out all the companies which sell on the internet, and found that several sell them on ebay. I set my bid and it took me about two weeks until I got it, but it was brand new and much cheaper than from Davis. I also go the USB receiver, separate anememoter transmitter becasue I mounted it on the roof. Including all that and the software, I spent around 700.00 If you don't need the anemometer transmitter and USB receiver you could do it easily for 500.00.

It was very easy to install!


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #42265 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:55 PM

I have a hard time believing that an anemometer could survive 175mph winds. Has anyone here field tested anything near those conditions? We spent around 600 on our setup, and my dad unintentionaly broke it while playing a cruel prank on me (he applied water from a pressure sprayer to mock high winds!). Needless to say, I was very upset.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Mon Jul 11 2005 08:57 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: emily [Re: HanKFranK]
      #42266 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:56 PM

Tend to agree with HF on this one. Though the overall organization of the storm isn't anything to write home about, the latest QuikSCAT pass over the storm about 5:30pm ET today suggests that the circulation has become a bit better defined (if a bit elongated east-west) with some non-rain flagged 40kt+ winds. Given the satellite-based Dvorak intensities and improved appearance on infrared satellite (the convective tops are probably over the center now, even if they aren't in nice bands or in a CDO feature), I think we'll see Emily at 11pm.

I also agree with the earlier post about what comes behind it...the wave closest to the storm is looking a bit ragged right now and is pretty far south, should take a few days if anything comes of it, while the wave just off of the coast is probably in a similar state to TD 5 a few days ago. One or the other may develop, but probably not both. If Emily gets going sooner rather than later, the wave closest to it stands little chance...the outflow from Emily will sap its strength and shear it apart.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: Clark]
      #42267 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:58 PM

Thanks Clark for the insight on the "Big Bend" area effects. As much as I hate to I will add that the modeling of TD 5, and yes it being very early yet, is very tight bringing it on a track to the Carib very close to the track of Dennis. But again these are models and very early runs as of yet.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: Lysis]
      #42268 - Mon Jul 11 2005 08:59 PM

Quote:

I have a hard time believing that an anemometer could survive 175mph winds. Has anyone here field tested anything near those conditions? We spent around 600 on our setup, and my dad unintentionaly broke it while playing a cruel prank on me (he applied water from a pressure sprayer to mock high winds!). Needless to say, I was very upset.




If you check out Davis' web site they have some data on that. Of course it all depends on what it is mounted to and if debris hits it (then forget it). Since they are typically near a roof, flying shingles will likely do it in way before that (if the roof is still there)!


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
Re: emily [Re: Clark]
      #42269 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:04 PM

I just caught the clip of Geraldo at the end of Bill O'Reilly. Tomorrow I will try to get a link to my website with the video.

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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
Emily [Re: AndyG]
      #42270 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:16 PM

All the models seem to pull Emily over Hispanola, which will obviously cause substantial weakening, but will the high build back over Florida before Emily get up to 25 or 26 L, then pushing it out westward?

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: emily [Re: AndyG]
      #42272 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:18 PM

Close call as to whether the NHC upgrades to Emily at 11pm or do they wait til 5am. The CDO has expanded and consolidated and she's looking good on the latest Sat pics tonight. The movement appears between N of west & WNW, and in this Sat link it appears to be heading towards the upper windward or leewards in this view. Also notice the trough really digging off the east coast.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8ir.html

TG


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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
Re: emily [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #42273 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:23 PM

Based upon that sat image, looks like Emily is getting ready to go back out to sea

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Emily [Re: Miami Beach, FLA USA]
      #42274 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:26 PM

According to Millenium Weathers, Gary Gray, the GGEM model takes it right through SoFl but some of the models, see the GFS, aren't initializing the storm system at all well. Its a really inexact science to predict where a developing, weak tropical depression, especially one with no clear cut center of circulation. All depends on how these models handle it when the center of circulation finally appears.


BTW, Mr. Gray forecasts it to pass over Hispanola and possibly take the more northerly path to South Florida. He's using a blend of the GFS/GFDL/GGEM models because the UKMET takes it way far west as an open wave and the others are to the left of his forecast.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Mike N
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 16
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Move it to the left.. move it to the right.. down .. south.. up north [Re: Clark]
      #42275 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:32 PM

Clark - What is the best settings to set it on?? 850MB? So many options with no knowledge of what item selected shows what. Is is that some models are run at different heights in the atmosphere and if so which one is most useful for predicting future tracks, ie is there any particular one to look at over another??

Thanks! Anyone with knowledge on this feel free to educate me on this.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: emily [Re: Clark]
      #42276 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:34 PM

I found this site when trying to get information about Dennis...I'm glad I stayed because this is getting kind of interesting. So what I saw from today on the satellite was the formation of a tropical storm from a tropical depression?

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: emily [Re: Margie]
      #42277 - Mon Jul 11 2005 09:53 PM

Well, it is not officially a Tropical Storm yet according to the NHC, but it is very close I believe.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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