Clark
Meteorologist
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margie -- perhaps; we may know at 11pm whether or not the calls it a tropical storm. It's a fine line between a tropical depression and a weak tropical storm, just like it is between a strong tropical storm and weak hurricane, but the development of these things through time definitely does have some markers on satellite.
Mike N -- if you are looking for forecasts of the tropical systems out there, using the "Sea Level Pressure" product is the easiest one to get started with. However, models don't always predict the development of tropical systems very well, nor do they always capture weak tropical systems very well. For developing storms and trying to forecast development, 850mb vorticity products are usually the best to look at. Tropical systems, before developing, generally have their strongest signals just above the surface, making 850mb vorticity a pretty good tool to look at. Models tend to have that signal better than they do weak areas of low pressure.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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An interest section of a news article from BBC news on the recent early season activity. Full Article
The predicted spate of hurricanes in 2005 is part of a multi-decadal cycle of fluctuating sea temperatures.
"It is a natural cycle of a period of about 50 or 60 years," Professor Saunders told the BBC News website.
"The last peak of activity was in the 1950s and scientists have mapped this pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic sea temperatures back about 150 years, so they have two or three cycles of it."
However, Professor Saunders believes that global warming might be contributing to the problem.
"I think one has to wonder whether at least part of this activity could be due to global warming," he said. "Certainly, sea temperatures where hurricanes form have been the warmest on record over the last year or two."
Indeed, 's early arrival is very irregular, and is yet another indication of the rough ride ahead.
"This year is quite unusual in that there is so much early activity," Professor Saunders said. "Dennis is only the second major hurricane to strike America in July. The other one happened in 1916.
"Often seasons which have high activity in July tend to be active for the whole season."
I am also thinking we will see Emily at 11, T-numbers have been 2.5/2.5 for a while which would support TS intensity, and the overall appearence may have improved. It also seems was able to located a center as the co-ordinates are given in the 8:05pm Discussion.
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jul 11 2005 10:11 PM)
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danielw
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Quote:
"Often seasons which have high activity in July tend to be active for the whole season."
Do you have any good news, to link to?
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Every time I think of a storm named Franklin, I think of the turtle from the kid's show and think "Oh Great! That one should be a slow mover!" 
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Clark
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Hmmm...interesting comment about July TC activity towards the rest of the season. Chris Landsea has run stats that show little significant correlation between July activity and the rest of the season; perhaps it is just an anecdotal reference to the researcher's personal beliefs, not sure.
As for the 8p TWD: if they weren't able to find a center, the storm would be dropped -- having a center is a prerequisite to being a classified system. I think you probably meant better-defined center, though, as it does appear to be becoming better defined. We'll know in the next little bit here as to whether or not the depression gets a name at 11p. The wave behind it looks a little better defined over the past few hours...I think there may be some cyclonic turning to the NE of the main region of convection, but as before, it'll take a while to get organized.
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Quote:
Hmmm...interesting comment about July TC activity towards the rest of the season. Chris Landsea has run stats that show little significant correlation between July activity and the rest of the season; perhaps it is just an anecdotal reference to the researcher's personal beliefs, not sure.
As for the 8p TWD: if they weren't able to find a center, the storm would be dropped -- having a center is a prerequisite to being a classified system. I think you probably meant better-defined center, though, as it does appear to be becoming better defined. We'll know in the next little bit here as to whether or not the depression gets a name at 11p. The wave behind it looks a little better defined over the past few hours...I think there may be some cyclonic turning to the NE of the main region of convection, but as before, it'll take a while to get organized.
I read on another site where the and the Navy has bumped it up to 35K. SO we should see Emily come outa the storm birth canal at 11pm
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Quote:
Hmmm...interesting comment about July TC activity towards the rest of the season. Chris Landsea has run stats that show little significant correlation between July activity and the rest of the season; perhaps it is just an anecdotal reference to the researcher's personal beliefs, not sure.
As for the 8p TWD: if they weren't able to find a center, the storm would be dropped -- having a center is a prerequisite to being a classified system. I think you probably meant better-defined center, though, as it does appear to be becoming better defined. We'll know in the next little bit here as to whether or not the depression gets a name at 11p. The wave behind it looks a little better defined over the past few hours...I think there may be some cyclonic turning to the NE of the main region of convection, but as before, it'll take a while to get organized.
I read on another site where the and the Navy has bumped it up to 35K. SO we should see Emily come outa the storm birth canal at 11pm
Which site?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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NRL hasn't changed to 05L.Emily yet, unless it does shortly, i guess it will remain a TD.
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FireAng85
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Mount Dora, FL 32757
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"Often seasons which have high activity in July tend to be active for the whole season."
Oh, goodie....... 
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Angie Robertson
OCFRD
"So others may live"
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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NRL has it at 35Kts which would say T.S...
Does it happen often where there is a disagreement between the and ? (if one says T.S. the other follows, however reluctantly?)
-Mark
(edited to clarify the question asked)
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Mon Jul 11 2005 10:36 PM)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Its official...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_5day.html
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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SeeSaw99
Registered User
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Loc: Tempe, AZ
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TS Emily is official
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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yep its Emily as of 11pm
Track
45mph
West at 12
1003mb
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Clark
Meteorologist
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If you dig around on the (Navy - Monterey) website, they have it marked at 35kt and 1005mb, but still listed as 05L.NONAME. advisory should be coming out in the next 15-20 minutes, we'll know more then.
Update -- Emily at 11pm per . Max winds 40kt, pressure 1003mb. Forecast is for an 85kt hurricane near Hispaniola in 4 days, Cuba in 5. Environmental overview & forecast track reasoning newly posted to the met blogs.
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jbmusic
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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Emily is HERE  
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Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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I like the history from that point, 1916 and 1996 Bertha, since storm tracks seem to be somewhat cyclical
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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SeeSaw99
Registered User
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Posts: 9
Loc: Tempe, AZ
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Well, the train of waves moving across the Atlantic has got me thinking. Does anyone know if it is possible, steering-current wise, to have two tropical storms/hurricanes threatening the U.S. at the same time? In the scenario I was mulling over in my head, one cyclone would move into the Gulf (and thus be on a longer track), while a second storm, moving behind the first, would catch a deepening trough and become a "short-cut storm, bringing it to the U.S. Atlantic Coast.
Not that I would ever wish for this to happen, but was just wondering (in my overactive mind), technically, if this was even possible (i.e., maybe atmospheric conditions could not change quickly enough to send two storms on such different paths).
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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It's possible, but not likely for two storms that formed out in the same region of the central/eastern Atlantic. The time between them would need to be just a day or two, despite the different paths, and it's not likely for that to occur.
You could have one such storm (moving north of the Caribbean) plus a Gulf storm potentially impact the US at the same time, or one such storm (moving through the Caribbean) plus a system that develops south of Bermuda threaten the US, but this scenario is less likely due to the nature of the environment that the latter such storms tend to form in (and ultimate direction that they travel).
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SeeSaw99
Registered User
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Loc: Tempe, AZ
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Thanks, Clark. Having seen the whirlwind BEGINNING to this season, I guess I was just wondering what "odd" things could potentially happen at the HEIGHT of it.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Earliest dates for the 5th named storm for the last 10 years.
1995 was July 31st.
1997 was July 16th.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Since 1851, Florida has seen six June hurricanes. The last of those was Agnes in 1972, a Category 1 storm that did little damage in Florida but drenched the northeastern United States, causing record flooding and killing more than 120 people....more
http://news.tbo.com/news/MGBQA95QK9E.html
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 11 2005 11:01 PM)
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