trinibaje
Weather Guru
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Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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The track puts them on guard. The upgrade puts them into ready mode and issuance of watches, warnings etc.
Playing devils advocate and trying to learn something:
Is the a global group? The name, National Hurricane Center, in my mind tells me it's an American organization. Why would another country care what we do? Wouldn't they have their equivalent to name or not name a storm? Unless my goegraphy is screwy and they are a part of us....
First of all, many of the small islands rely on the on forcasting in order to prepare because they do not have the infastructure to do this themselves (when you are poor feeding your people is much more important than building models to track hurricanes)
So yes the government of the Caribbean islands to look to the for their forcast and whether its time to get ready.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Frank, I had my share here in PSL last season with 2 canes in 3 weeks, think I would like to skip this season
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Clark
Meteorologist
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With regards to the current state of TD 5, it's rather similar to the initial call on -- which was quite well handled, actually. The mid-level circulation is currently much more impressive than the low-level feature, with is displaced from the center of the deep convection towards the eastern edge of the convective mass. There is broad cyclonic low-level turning, but not a well-defined center as of yet. Some interaction appears to be going on with the feature to its east-southeast, albeit minor at this time.
The current state of organization is going to keep things in check for the time being, though conditions are favorable for further (faster) development once the mid-level feature and surface feature are in better alignment with each other. There is some dry air ahead of the storm, but it appears to be waning with time. We'll have to play it by ear, but if the subtropical ridge builds back in to the north of the storm, it would tend to keep it more southerly; if not, then it'd end up as a fish spinner. Unfortunately, the former appears to be more likely at this time. The longer this storm stays weaker as well, the further south it'll traverse the ocean.
As an aside, at least the Caribbean is shut-off for the time being, the first time in a little while for that. It could just be temporary, though, as we saw around the time Bret got going. We'll have to see whether or not it means anything in case TD 5 heads that way.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Couple of 12's are out on the models. http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_fore...SIC_012_....jpg showing very busy week and at least early on a potential for the high/low. Mid Atl and a SE Atl. And look at the EARLY track for possible Emily, look familiar? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Loc: Altamonte Springs
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First of all, many of the small islands rely on the on forcasting in order to prepare because they do not have the infastructure to do this themselves (when you are poor feeding your people is much more important than building models to track hurricanes)
So yes the government of the Caribbean islands to look to the for their forcast and whether its time to get ready.
Ok that was the first of all..where is the second? 
Thanx y'all for the explanation. I didn't know the was responsible for so much. Very kool. Now, it seems like to me whether the storm has a name or not wouldn't matter. If I was the ruler of a small country residing in the path of many storms that could be or become hurricanes all I'd need would be location, speed of movement and wind speed.
Is the important thing that it has a name? Or that it is strong enough to be named?
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I'm sure the video will show up somewhere of Geraldo, it was one of those Dick Clark moments.....
On a more serious note, I'm sure the damage numbers from are going to be pretty interesting and considering that there will be a lot of damage from flooding especially here in the Atlanta area, we are not off to a good start for this season.
One major car dealership lost about 1-2 million in inventory today alone and the local news was mostly chopper shots of many creeks just engulfing whole subdivisions and more heavy rain from is forecast for today and tonight.....
I sincerely hope that TD 5 just goes out into the Atlantic....fish puree anyone?
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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On a more serious note, I'm sure the damage numbers from are going to be pretty interesting and considering that there will be a lot of damage from flooding especially here in the Atlanta area, we are not off to a good start for this season.
I'm still very surprised at the damage Cindy caused Atlanta. I wonder if many expected that?
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Todd
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
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Seems the Carolinas took the load off the GOM and Florida for about seven years.. your turn .. aside from that ... it's a long season and odds are everyone might be touched this year.
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Hard to pick out a center of TD#5 on the water vapor, but in one frame it almost looks an eye attempting to develop at about 10 - 45.5
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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we will likely not have Emily today--if you look closely at the satellite loops, you will see the center to the east of all the convection
im a bit surprised though that there is no invest on the system to the east of the depression
the visible out by africa is actually pretty low quality, and you know something is strong when it looks that organized on it
another look
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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In all honesty, I really don't think so. The damage was really from two waves of storms that happened and many people forgot, with the exception of the mets that the worst damage can happen from a landfalling system in the right front quadrant.
BTW, if Cindy hadn't happened and dumped so much rain here last week, the flooding that were experiencing today wouldn't have been so major.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah I can image, heck I bet the entire state of Florida feels that way..... Thus far in coastal MS I've been under a hurricane warning, a hurricane watch, and a tropical storm warning (which should have been at least a hurricane warning with Cindy)... this is a full season of activity and its only early July... absolutely incredible.... I think it will only get worse before it gets better... I hate to think what late Aug, Sept and early Oct may bring... scary ....
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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anyone think with the second system and the depression that we could make it to Franklin by the 15th?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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anyone think with the second system and the depression that we could make it to Franklin by the 15th?
It all depends on how the interaction with TD 5 results. Once TD 5 starts to pull away, which should happen once it gets picked up in stronger easterlies, I wouldn't be suprised at all to see it form. The does say something about it in the 11:30 Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Atlantic.
"THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE UNUSUALLY ACTIVE FOR
JULY...WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR."
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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jr928
Weather Guru
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tough call
franklin could pop off the coast and do the quick shot to the north thing but that's usually later in the season
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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an interesting note that today, July 11, is the statistical date in which the first storm forms in an average season, and it is possible that 2-3 days from now we could have the sixth
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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I was very, very happy to see that was losing some of his punch as he was about to make landfall. Boy, did I pray hard! Frank and Rick...so glad to hear you guys did better than I was thinking. Not that 120mph is something to sneeze at, but it was a lot better than 145mph, that's for darned sure! Hope everyone else in the affected areas are doing okay. I'm sure there is damage, power outages and so forth..but from preliminary reports, not much injury to people.
Jamie..I was ROFLOL about your 2-year old...my kids hear thunder and roll their sleeping bags out in our closet! 
Some comments on the reporters yesterday: yes, I saw the FNC anchor interrupt Max Mayfield for something incredibly stupid..and I almost fell off the chair. I also think that if Anderson Cooper had been any closer to the beach, he would have had a stroke. John Zirella (sp) screaming in the background "GET BACK! GET BACK! GET BACK!" as the sign came flying down had me giggling like a schoolgirl! How many times did they repeat: "that sheet metal could kill someone" ? Like 7500, I think. Then we had Rick Sanchez in "Hurricane 1" driving around like like we were being invaded by aliens. "OH LOOK! THE ROOF IS GOING TO FLY OFF! NOW I SEE SPARKS! ALLLLRIIGGGHHTTTT...I THINK THIS IS GETTING A LITTLE DANGEROUS...WE BETTER GET OUTTA HERE!" only to drive around the corner to where the SPARKS were coming from...sheesh!
If only I had seen Gerry Rivers (aka Geraldo) fall on his kiester...that would have been the icing on the cake. So far, this is how many careers he's had:
*Talk Show host, investigative reporter, target for the Taliban (how did they keep MISSING him???), reporter for the War on Iraq, War on Terror, Michael Jackson enthusiast, the first guy to confirm that the Atlanta courthouse shooter had been caught, Natalee Holloway investigator, and now, apparantly, a meteorologist who fell on his kiester. What more could he do...never mind.
As for TD#5/Emily will not interrupt my plans to go to Chicago. I leave Wednesday night and arrive back Monday, probably just in time to get back here and repeat "left, right, left".
My only hope is that we can all remember we're here for a common cause and that the amount of bickering and animosity I saw over the weekend will be less, because all that does is take away from what this forum is about. I will be using my IGNORE feature when needed. I haven't posted since Saturday because I couldn't take it anymore.
I think the and the mets here should be commended for the excellent work they did with . As far as TD#5/Emily's track is concerned, I'm not going outside the projected cone for right now. It does appear that it may make a trek across Haiti...which might just rip it to shreds, but other than that, I'm not forecasting any landfall points in the United States.
I am really SICK of hurricanes. This is like deja vu from last year...just as a hurricane was coming towards us, they'd say: "Don't look now...but here comes , Jeanne, ..." ugh.
I'll be driving most of the day tomorrow; dropping off Thing 1 in Tifton so he can spend time with Gramma. Thing 2 begins football practice tonight. Also, we have 3 new additions to our family: 2 goldfish and 1 algae eater. So now I have Things 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Not including hubby. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
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If it doesn't die on the way through Cuba and Hispaniola, it looks like a LA or TX impact. Unless that baby corners on rails, it' looks like Western gulf. That curve (And I'm talking about a rough aggregation of the projection animations) is far too shallow to impact anywhere near ' impact zone. Unless that dry spot ahead of Emily slows it's shrinking and manages to shape itself to it bounces her to the North (or a really big bounce South) she will likely stay out of the N Gulf area. If you look at the projection, they forsee her heading the long way through Cuba. Land is never good for any kind of tropical system (since they hinge on the water supply right below them) and going that-a-way through Cuba (unless they warp the projection in the next few days) will be like feeding a kitten through a mulcher. (Ok, maybe not a kitten, but a small, fragile object. Like a Hummel figurine)
Don't put much stock in my projection, I'm just adding my ante to the big pile. Emily's got a lot of water and a lot of air to get through/over, and the 8-ball is being really hazy. She may go through Hispaniola and start streaking North, who knows? I've just seen (and been a bit disappointed by) quite a few stormsin my brief time. Though I keep prepared and up-to-date, I always hold dismal outlooks for my hometown (Port Richey, FL) and my current town of residence (Orlando, FL) when it comes to storms.
Hell, I went home (Pasco) for , we all know how they were projecting it (Parents both live less than 2 miles from US 19) and it went straight for Orlando at the las minute. Perhaps I'm an anti-hurricane charm or something.
kitten through a mulcher... whoa, i'll have to remember that one. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 11 2005 10:01 PM)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Emily trying to get more organized and a banding feature developing to its NW. Also seems like the movement is slightly N of due west now. Agree with Rabbit that it may not be upgraded today, more likely tomorrow AM. The track could be very similiar to , though it could be at a higher latitude and actually cross part of the DR & Haiti.
TG
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HurricaneSteph
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
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Hi to all.... I've been watching these hurricanes and all the related info for the past year, ever since came through town and had it's way with us. I understand the direct relation to millibars, troughs and other variables that make each hurricane different. What I don't understand, is what exactly do they mean when they say "a tropical wave off the coast of Africa". Is it literally a wave, as we picture it? Or is it a thunderstorm that blows off the coast? I'm just interested in the origins of these things..... :?:
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HurricaneSteph
Orlando
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