Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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I may be late here, have been off site since 5pm EST. Did I just hear on Fox Emily is all growed up now and a Hurricane? WHA HAPPEN
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
Edited by Tazmanian93 (Thu Jul 14 2005 02:45 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Pressure now down to 992mb. That's a 4mb drop in an hour.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Wow.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Not sure if that is a significant northward movement or simply the result of the convection finally getting completely wrapped around the center. It is moving more on a WNW direction than W, though.
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Michael
PWS
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
if I were the leader in jamaica, I would have jim cantore come and broadcast from the center of my island, thus sparing the country.
hee hee
I was wondering how, with a newsperson like every block, there was no documentation of 's eye...maybe we have to wait, perhaps Pcola will have got it all on film.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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WOW, latest IR, she is exploding
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The center might be doing alittle relocation or the convection is really wrapping around the center(hence the increase to cane status).WNW like Scott said will resume maybe again by tomorrow morning but not before possibly affecting some of the models.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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CaneTracker, not really. The convection and associated outflow would serve to add some additional energy to the ridge above it due to convective heating, but this would be expected to be minor (if not negligible over such a short time scale). It could lead to some convective drag, but really, it's probably just reorganization of the storm once again.
And yes, Emily's a hurricane as of a 10pm special update. Waiting on the particulars in the 11p package, though, which is understandably a little late in coming. Guess the storm finally did decide to get its act together this evening, eh?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Quote:
CaneTracker, not really. The convection and associated outflow would serve to add some additional energy to the ridge above it due to convective heating, but this would be expected to be minor (if not negligible over such a short time scale). It could lead to some convective drag, but really, it's probably just reorganization of the storm once again.
And yes, Emily's a hurricane as of a 10pm special update. Waiting on the particulars in the 11p package, though, which is understandably a little late in coming. Guess the storm finally did decide to get its act together this evening, eh?
Clark, you seem to always answer my questions. Hehe. Thanks again.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Thu Jul 14 2005 02:54 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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11pm is out...winds increased substantially based upon recon report...
Winds in Emily are now 90mph. No, that is not a typo.
May have to go back and edit my previous forecast thinking just a little bit...didn't expect quite this jump with the convective flareup. Don't think did, either.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Winds officially up to 90 per wunderground.com.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Watching these storms form over time is very interesting.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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How many hours do these recon flights have to travel to get down to South America to fly into these storms? Or when they are so far away, do the planes come from somewhere other than the mainland?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Margie, they have a base in either Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands -- someone with a bit more knowledge can help me out there, please! -- that they use for flying these storms. Usually only one (sometimes two) plane(s) get sent out that way, though, due to cost reasons, limiting the number of flights that can be made into these storms. However, 6hrly fixes usually suffice until they get closer to the mainland, when the full suite of planes can head in and around the storm.
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MichaelA
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Quote:
How many hours do these recon flights have to travel to get down to South America to fly into these storms? Or when they are so far away, do the planes come from somewhere other than the mainland?
The NOAA aircraft are based at MacDill in Tampa. They have the Gulfstream jets and a P4 I believe. The AF is based in Louisiana. I wonder if they refuel in Puerto Rico.
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Puerto Rico
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Based on some data i saw the other day. I believe they are flying Emily from Puerto Rico. They normally fly the storms this far out from St Croix, US Virgin Isles.
They tend to reposition the aircraft based on storm trajectory and strength.
Houston and Tampa are two of the sites they use for secondary bases on the mainland.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Do you people even read what the says? they talk about how hard it is to forcast the winds they just dont have a good handle on that but all models but the ukmet takes it to the yucatan.
I love wishcasters and doomcasters who have nothing more then a wish to see a north moevment in this.
What is even more funny is when the last storm was going i talked about what the ukmet modle said and i was told how bad the model is but now since it shows the most intrest everyone wants to jump on it.
Its the wishcasters and doomcasters that makes boards like this sick.
I think its going where they say and why? cause that is there buisness and yes it may be wrong but 99% of the models are showing it not going to florida but only time will tell till the next one comes.
A northward movement right now would equate to a fish-spinner. Not a CAT 1 in the Caribbean.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 14 2005 03:10 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Apparently isn't buying into the different motions that we've been seeing of late. Sticking with a westward track for 24 hours.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...EMILY WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EMERGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY THURSDAY
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
Quote:
How many hours do these recon flights have to travel to get down to South America to fly into these storms? Or when they are so far away, do the planes come from somewhere other than the mainland?
The NOAA aircraft are based at MacDill in Tampa. They have the Gulfstream jets and a P4 I believe. The AF is based in Louisiana. I wonder if they refuel in Puerto Rico.
The AF Recon is based in Kesler AFB in Biloxi Ms. And I think I read somewhere that about where these storms are there is a no fly zone for the US so they have to use other planes from other places. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong but that is what I read from another board.
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