Terra
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What a great idea ... I was actually just looking at the IR of Emily and she does look a lot more organized than earlier in the day and yesterday.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
She's also got a more northerly component to her motion.... I think we should see some strengthening soon... but, I guess we won't know until 11p. I wonder if, since the motion is no longer completely west, that the models will start to shift back to the north some...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Lysis
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Indeed. Man, did you all feel how tense that got? I don't think Clark is around (maybe we scared him off with our bickering)... but varying degrees of low pressure has been bothering me with these things. 1000mb seems awfully high for a 60mph storm. I am interested how the graphs will deal with … as his highest sustained windspeed and his lowest pressure did not coincide! I don’t know… I can’t seem to get a firm grasp a question to ask about this. I realize it is highly relative, and I wish the records didn’t grade “intenseness” via pressure. The windspeed is what counts (see saffir simpson scale thread).
EDIT: I suppose that would be difficult since there is no way to accurately gauge windspeed all the time on the same level that we can gauge pressure.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 14 2005 12:42 AM)
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Terra
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I did something once that turned out pretty interesting.... Now, it won't explain why pressure/wind relationships aren't always exactly constant, but it can give you a feel for the amount of variation. Windspeed depends on pressure right... Take a storm (any storm, but preferably one that had large variations in windspeed, so like a stronger hurricane).... Plot pressure versus windspeed in Excel, where pressure is the "x" and windspeed is the "y". Add a trendline to the plot (a regression line, really.. Excel just calls it a trendline) and display the equation and "r-squared" value on the graph. It'll generally be a pretty good relationship and while the slopes (which show the relationship between pressure and windspeed) will always be in the ballpark... there is a fair amount of variation.
Something else to do (I tell you, I'm the biggest nerd ever, and I freely admit this) is take a large sample of pressure/windspeed data from many, many storms and do the same thing.... You should end up with the relationship that is the overall estimate between pressure and windspeed that various sites use... I've never done this though.
For what it's worth...
Edit: And the windspeed it what counts as far as Saffir-Simpson numbers, but (as discussed on that thread... I think that's where) damage comes from more than just wind... in fact, storm surge is responsible for most hurricane-related deaths, and flooding is a whole other damage issue.... I'm still all for a Modified-Mercalli-type scale for hurricanes that takes everything into account and provides a gauge of damage.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Thu Jul 14 2005 12:50 AM)
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spencercape
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From the 5pm Discussion: AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM AND
SAB
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So, isn't 60 a bit of an overstatement? I think they were there earlier maybe and they are just hesitant to reduce the winds when there are clear signs that the storm will strengthen overnight? Would that be a fair way of looking at it?
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At least the weather here is nice January, February, March and some of April!
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Domino
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Well, 50kt would be about 60mph - and that's if they happened to drop it at the right place for maximum winds. I'd say 60 is probably about right. Satellite intensity estimates are just estimates so I'd tend to stick with the dropsonde reading.
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Lysis
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Thaks Tera. But remember that surge is also dependent upon wind. The actual amount of water that is sucked up from the surface of the ocean by the low pressure will always be, even in the most insane of hurricanes, only a few feet high. I may be mistaken on that... but I am pretty sure that it is the wind driven componant of surge that harbours the real killer.
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cheers
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Allison
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Just following up on a general newbie-type question posted earlier....
The weaker the system, the less likely it will be picked up by upper-level steering winds, correct?
So generally speaking, if Emily remains weak, she's more likely to keep heading west and into the Yucatan.
But if she gains strength, as is forecast, she's more likely to be caught up in passing troughs, and things of that nature.
Or am I off-base in this particular case?
Thanks!
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Allison
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Terra
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Good point about the storm surge, indeed.... But, flooding has nothing to do with wind.... (hah, my idea isn't totally blown away... pun intended)... And, then there's tornados that can spin up, population, structures, etc.... So, while I'm not saying wind is not important, low wind storms can still cause as much damage as a high wind storm given these other factors.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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DebbiePSL
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Well Lysis, I for one have gone through two hurricanes, maybe not category four or five but I was in the eye of both and Jeanne last year only three weeks apart. I live on the east coast in Port st Lucie and I can tell you I don't want to do that again. If I hear a four or five is headed my way, I'm gonna run for the hills fast as I can and never look back. 
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Frank P
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At the time I was living on the east end of Biloxi, right in the center of the penisula, we had 5 feet of water in our house during the storm... the house I now own on the front beach only had about 2 feet of water surge in it.... still had the water marks and marsh grass stuck on the inside of the sheet rock walls when I was tearing them out for remodeling... my house on the beach has been surveyed at 20 feet above sea level, the house on Oak Steet on the east end of town was 17 feet above sea level .... which is about 7 miles to the east of my house on the beach... both areas had storm surges to 22 feet above sea level... now that's a STORM SURGE.... experienced first hand... and I might add, not much fun either.... I hope no one ever experiences another Camille...
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spencercape
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okay, so with the increasing winds, and now most of the models making a progressive move northerly, is it time to stop thinking about Mexico and begin to think about where in the US the storm might lead?
I notice that UKMET (since earlier) and BAM/GDFL now miss the Yucatan entirely... do you think the other models will follow suit?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
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At least the weather here is nice January, February, March and some of April!
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Beaumont, TX
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Tropical storms can sometimes wreak just as much havoc as hurricanes. Remember Allison that stalled over Houston?
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stormchazer
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Depends on the Low-level flow. Weaker systems tend to ride the low-level flow whereas more intense systems are more effected by the upper level patterns. One of the pros here can likely explain it better.
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Jara
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nl
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funny how last night it was going right too trinidad and tobago and now she has did a u turn and i mean a fast uturn. 
u-turn? emily would be heading back out into the atlantic if it did that. it's turned all of five degrees. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jul 14 2005 01:40 AM)
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javlin
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Your on Allison weaker storms the cloud tops are not at the same height as a stronger storm so they are steer generally mid-level sterring currents.To were as the stong storm and cane feel the effects of the upper atmosphere and steered by them.
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Allison
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Quote:
okay, so with the increasing winds, and now most of the models making a progressive move northerly, is it time to stop thinking about Mexico and begin to think about where in the US the storm might lead?
I'm not so sure... there's still that strong high pressure in the gulf, which may keep sending her west....
Granted, I haven't checked any models to see if that high is forecase to weaken or move off....
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Allison
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Frank P
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well all of the models from the 00Z run are now north of the 5 day forecast track... Perhaps a shift to the north at 11:00 pm.... maybe as far north as the Yucatan channel?
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spencercape
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Well, I know this is not much to go by, but the vis loop certainly appears in the last several frames to be making a definate turn WNW or NW.... this should become very interesting over the next day!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
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At least the weather here is nice January, February, March and some of April!
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nl
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yeah she is tap dancing around the islands lol! too much rum.
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ShanaTX
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Quote:
Good point about the storm surge, indeed.... But, flooding has nothing to do with wind.... (hah, my idea isn't totally blown away... pun intended)... And, then there's tornados that can spin up, population, structures, etc.... So, while I'm not saying wind is not important, low wind storms can still cause as much damage as a high wind storm given these other factors.
Absolutely. Case in point, Tropical Storm Allison
'shana
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