nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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i think we need too hook the witch doctors up with some chicks because they are wishing these waves off of africa on us. lol! sorry a little humor makes me feel better and not so stressed out about this season so i gotta be comical about them. 
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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she is getting closer too that box we were talking bout yesterday.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01126 10598 12505 11410 12052
02124 20600 22493 21515 12047
03122 30602 32481 31510 11066
04120 40604 42446 41810 09077
MF120 M0604 MF079
OBS 01 AT 00:54:00Z
OBS 04 AT 01:07:50Z
Line MF 12.0N 60.4W MF=Max flt level winds 79kts or 91mph??
Could be a spot wind or an eddy due to the mountains.
Emily could be getting stronger, too.
New Vortex...edited
P. AF302 0205A EMILY OB 09
STRONG BANDING ON N TO NE AROUND CENTER
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 01:08:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 356 / 11NM
850mb Flight level wind as stated above.
Pressure 996mb
Temp and dew point inside the 'eye' are 14C or 57.2F
That would equate to near 100% relative humidity or solid clouds.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 13 2005 09:52 PM)
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Quote:
yeah she is tap dancing around the islands lol! too much rum.
Hope she dont make a pit stop in Cuba. She may do like did and visit Castro and he give her one of those Cuban cigars and a drank of that funny stuff and she may stay there too long at least till she get bout half way sobered up.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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Check out Emily in the latest IR loops. I haven't seen a right like that since Ali-Frazier, Round Three.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Looks like 99 is fizzling with T-Numbers dropping to "too weak". On the other hand...looks like we'll have our next hurricane at 11 unless there's something funky about that 79kt flight level wind.
On the way to work tonight I was listening to a couple guys on HAM radio talk about how Trinidad/Tabago and islands in that area "never" getting hit by hurricanes. I felt that to be kinda ironic given one was about to hit..
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I feel the ultimate path will be determined by which way it goes by Jamaica. Looking a visible satellite we see the gulf devoid of any signifcant convection meaning that a large ridge has built there. The latest model run's of the and seem highly likely given the steering regime. I would consider the or even the WRF solution right now even though that is generally not considered a synoptic model. The takes it over Jamaica which as we have seen in the past doesn't work, especially with a small tight strong circulation that is forecasted to near the area. Either way I think the BOC is a likely place for it to end up at the end of the forecast period. The biggest area that should be concerned in U.S should be Texas right now.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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yeah maybe she forgot her visa. lol!
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Now wait...did not someone say that storms do not intensify in that part of the Caribbean?
I guess Emily is saying "Fine...you want me to go NW...I'll go NW!
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Jara
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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conventional wisdom says stick with the , they get it right 9/10 times. when they move north then we'll start looking north. this storm isn't that powerful and yucatan will kill it.
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KZ
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
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Whats the outlook for this thing hitting a right and aiming at Louisiana?????
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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00
WTNT65 KNHC 140154
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005
...EMILY BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
AT 955 PM...0155Z...THE RESPONSIBLE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR GRENADA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.
FORECASTER KNABB
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Jara
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Quote:
Now wait...did not someone say that storms do not intensify in that part of the Caribbean?
I guess Emily is saying "Fine...you want me to go NW...I'll go NW!
Nature doesn't seem to care much for climatology this year it seems. Climatologically, I believe that area is known as the Tropical Cyclone graveyard, not so this year.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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I wonder what the is going to strengthen it to...in terms of mph.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Not surprising considering the IR presentation looks like Emily has undergone much more organization in the last few hours. Very symmetrical now.
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Michael
PWS
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jr928
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 101
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I have yet to see a model that takes it away from mexico or southern edge of texas
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
I have yet to see a model that takes it away from mexico or southern edge of texas
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
Ummm, thats not recent, thats from 13 hours ago. 
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I wonder what the is going to strengthen it to...in terms of mph.
AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
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h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Quote:
I have yet to see a model that takes it away from mexico or southern edge of texas
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp
Here is a more recent one....and if you check the individual globals you can see the northward change...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
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Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station
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