MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11PM Update
The pressure and winds continue to fall within the storm, now at an intensity of 125mph and pressure of 957mb. Additional strengthening is likely and the storm may reach category 4 intensity during the day on Friday. Watches have now been posted for the Cayman Islands in preparation for the storm. The forecast track has been shifted ever-so-slightly northward, with landfall in Northern Mexico likely in about 6 days.
 
2PM Update
Recon reports and the indicate that Emily is now just below the threshold of major hurricane status, with a pressure of 972mb and winds or 110mph. Further strengthening is forecast, with the storm now having the potential to reach category 4 status in the western or central Caribbean.
8:45AM Update
Hurricane Emily has passed over the island of Grenada, as a Category 1, and maintained itself this morning. Now it has strengthened, although the official advisory for 8AM says 991, recon has just mesured the pressure at 980 mb, which likely makes it a category 2 hurricane.
The future path is still south, probably clipping the northern end of the Yucatan and entering the Bay of Campeche after 5 days or so. At that time, if it continued on its present course, it would make landfall in Mexico. However, once it enters the Bay of Campeche it has the opportunity to slow or turn, but is so far off that it is pure speculation.
The other disturbances in the Atlantic haven't organized yet, but give them a few more days and they probably will as well. These are more llikely to head out to sea before nearing land, however.
Original Update:
Emily is now a hurricane, with 90 mph winds. Approaching the Caribbean islands, including what looks like to be a landfall on Grenada, devestated by Hurricane last year. After this, it is still expected to head west, and stay south of Cuba, Puerto Rico and us by a good margin, slamming into the Yucatan toward the end of the weekend.
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Individual reports from the Caribbean Islands
Color Sat of Gulf (Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emily
Visible/IR Floater of Emily with storm track Overlays
Aruba Radar
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily
Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 15 2005 01:06 AM)
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Going up .4N and .5W center relocate some?
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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well since i have family in the caribbean, although not Grenada, I ask all of you to keep the people of Grenada in your thoughts. The country was devastated by last year and they are nowhere near recovery.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
Going up .4N and .5W center relocate some?
Relocated to the northeast under the deep convection.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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She is looking very well,and getting better.Bad news for my buds in Playa Del Carmen. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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probably wobbled like crazy as the inner core spun up quickly. since it's deepening the wnw motion should finally set in. it sure waited til it was on top of the islands to do that...
scott's analysis of the track looks fairly sound. wnw for a while then bending back more to the west as it gets near 20/80ish. probably going to be a very significant hurricane in the western caribbean. based on what we have now, there's a modest chance it will threaten texas around july 20/21, but the biggest threat will be for mexico's yucatan and the nw mainland.
HF 0430z14july
to clarify.. made this comment prior to reading the 11pm discussion. they say the center reformed NE.. that accounts for the shift.
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Jul 14 2005 12:33 AM)
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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It appears Emily is being helped along also by an anticyclone located near by, around the 200 hPa layer.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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emily: going to move pretty much like the official says. initial intensity is too high.. long term intensity is too low. it may be a major hurricane at midmonth... don't know if there's a recorded precedent for that. future track mostly likely to threaten mexico. the 18Z run of the is what i'd regard as the best example of track/intensity expected, shifted just south.
99L: i was thinking it would be a t.d. some time tomorrow, but this is uncertain. SSTs will begin to pick up along its track tomorrow, but there is a large field of subsidence in its path. this will likely keep the convective pattern very sporadic... probably not enough to get this to a tropical cyclone. it also puts the future track in question.. the wave will work further west.. but its development chances are somewhat lower than before. then again, if/once it does develop it have an even lower chance of catching the trough in the central atlantic.
east of 99L: new wave, good cyclonic turning in the associated mcc that came with it. something else to watch if it persists... nothing on the models though.
HF 0552z14july
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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From Steve Gregory's wunderground blog:
"JULY 13 10:14PM CDT
Further analysis of the RECON data by indicates that the max wind report near the surface is closer to 80KTS, just shy of the 83kt threshold for CAT intensity. But additionally, the pressure has dropped another 4MB in the past hour alone, down to 992mb! And just as impressive, the temperature difference between the inside and outside of the core circulation (soon to be the eye) has increased to 7 degrees. This is clearly a CAT 2 hurricane.
The rapid increase in intensity, has been accompanied by an equally impressive increase in convection, with a very impressive outflow pattern developing in all directions, and clearly increase the odds that Emily has really begun a rapid intensification phase likely to last till morning. With the storm possibly approaching CAT 3 intensity during the next 12 hours. There is no clear indication yet of an eye, but the thermal characteristics reported by the RECON strongly suggest we will likely see one shortly as subsidence within the core of the storm increases
The new 00Z run of models shows a continued shift northward of the storm track, with the , and now the BAMD both showing Emily bypassing the Yucatan, and coming through the Yucatan channel by Monday. But the overall majority still show the storm hitting the upper Yucatan coast. But this is over 4 days, and 2,000 miles away. The statistical error leaves room for a potentially wide range of outcomes. Certainly though, recent model trends towards a slightly further northward track raises the risks for the western Gulf Coast states, in particular Texas, for a hurricane landfall towards the middle of next week. "
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Jul 14 2005 12:55 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like he has been reading the same RECON info I have.
Hank, two of the models are up at the site.
Canadian model taking Emily near Jamaica, knocking her spin down a notch and then to a course over the Southern Yucatan Peninsula, after knocking the rest of the spin out of her.
Final course is a la Bret...somewhere on the SW GOM coast, Tampico area.
Above notes based on the 850mb level vorticity product.
**************************************************************************
The UKMET model is quite a bit more aggressive with Emily.
UKMET is indicating a Hurricane entering the GOM at the Yucatan Channel around Sunday morning, around daybreak.
Taking her to a landfall near the TX/ MX border sometime on Tuesday.
UKMET notes based on the 500mb level vorticity product.
A dip in the 500mb jetstream, into N MS and N AL at +132hrs could have some influence on the landfall location.
Above models change every 6 to 12 hours and are subject to large changes. Please consult the Official Advisories for the Current and forecast Tracks.
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 14 2005 01:28 AM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I am amazed at how quickly Emily intensified... but, it was like night and day with the sats from earlier when she was weaker, until now.... But, shouldn't she have an eye at 90 mph?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Terra -- usually weak hurricane status is when hurricanes really start showing their eye. There may be hints of one forming on IR satellite imagery now, but if not, I imagine we'll see one soon as the system becomes better organized.
I bandied these thoughts about with HF & others around here earlier this evening, but I'm not convinced that the dropsonde used to upgrade the system all the way to 90mph didn't hit a convective tower (localized area of very deep convection with winds temporarily stronger than those found throughout the system as a whole) on its way down. Flight-level winds are usually a bit stronger than the surface winds due to friction (and the fact that they don't fly all that high up), yet they have not climbed above 79kt yet. Pressure has fallen a good 10mb this evening, which does suggest the storm has strengthened, but I wonder if the true intensity is closer to 75-80mph than to 90mph. I do agree that it is a hurricane, however, given the flight level wind evidence and maintained pressure falls. Just me thinking out loud.
Have a good night, everyone...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
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Is there any data on how much the formation of an eye will affect the course of a storm? The eye's an area of high(er) barometric pressure smack dab in the middle of a hurricane, I'd imagine that would affect the steering properties somehow. Insight?
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Looks like the 5A maintains 80kt and is just the same as the last forecast. Looks like it should be a Cat 2 later today.
Was looking at 99L earlier...it's looking pretty ragged and still is too weak for t-numbers.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Latest IR compared to Forecast points looks like Emily has wobbled north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0900Z 12.3N 62.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 13.0N 64.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 68.0W 90 KT
36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.2N 71.5W 95 KT
48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.4N 75.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 17/0600Z 19.0N 82.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 88.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 100 KT
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/140845.shtml
Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 14 2005 06:27 AM)
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
Is there any data on how much the formation of an eye will affect the course of a storm? The eye's an area of high(er) barometric pressure smack dab in the middle of a hurricane, I'd imagine that would affect the steering properties somehow. Insight?
Actually, the eye is the lowest pressure... since winds blow from high pressure to low pressure, and are deflected because of the Coriolis force, they blow inward and counterclockwise. They eye is essentially the point that the winds rotate around. The lower level winds converge around the eye. Now, nature abhors a vacuum, so if there were no upper level divergence, or outflow, then the pressure would increase and weaken the storm.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
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Oh. I always thought it was high pressure because I read a book on weather back in elementary school and it explained the eye passing overhead with "The rain stops, the barometric pressure skyrockets, and you might even see the sun shining for a little while."
But perhaps the low pressure is aloft and the high pressure is on the ground.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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The low pressure is at the surface.... but, the eye temperature aloft is warmer... so maybe that's why the weather is fair. However, that would mean the air is descending, and goes against everything I understand about low presure centers, which make talll heavy air columns and thus precipitation. I always thought since the eye was the point around where the winds rotated, that was why the weather was calmest.
I'm thinking there's validity in both of our points... maybe Clark can fill in the gap?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
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 Calling for Met backup!!
I'd definitely call Clark in to set us straight.
On a side note: They kicked the 5-day forecast track to the North a tad. Could this be a trend culminating in a N GOM or Fl Peninsula impact?
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