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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: bn765]
      #43181 - Thu Jul 14 2005 11:33 PM

Quote:

I heard Franklin will be named a depression soon and could be going west so does this mean it could affect places like the Bahamas, Florida?



Where did you hear this?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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bn765
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #43182 - Thu Jul 14 2005 11:36 PM

I read it somewhere a couple of days ago....didnt know if it was true or not so was trying to get some truth to it.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: bn765]
      #43183 - Thu Jul 14 2005 11:37 PM

if it does it wont be for a day or 2 if at all....

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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #43184 - Thu Jul 14 2005 11:39 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I heard Franklin will be named a depression soon and could be going west so does this mean it could affect places like the Bahamas, Florida?



Where did you hear this?




yea a littllee to ealry for Frnaklin..Texas should watch out this could be a bad one for south texas..

florida spared..i have never heard of such things?!?!?!

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #43186 - Thu Jul 14 2005 11:44 PM

The track seems to be shifting more northward. Could the storm possibly impact the central and upper Texas gulf coast if the high pressure doesn't build to the west?

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #43188 - Thu Jul 14 2005 11:58 PM

Well anything is possible but the latest modles from the NHC show it hitting as far north as the upper teas area.So as of now anything in the cone is fair game and the cone can change at 5am one way or the other but the next 3 days look pretty much on target.

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: ralphfl]
      #43194 - Fri Jul 15 2005 01:09 AM

Just doing a little speculating before I hit the hay...At first glance the early stage of the current run of the FSU appear to shift the track a tad further north. Should be interesting in the morning to see whether the end result of the current FSU model is any further north (just guessing, but maybe just southwest of Houston?). Perhaps even closer to western LA if the model takes it north of Jamaica.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/EMILY.track.png

Always fun to be devils advocate and play the watch every millimeter move one single computer model makes game.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Forecast Track [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #43198 - Fri Jul 15 2005 01:28 AM

I'm seeing dropsonde HDOBs from one of the NOAA planes. Appears that they are conducting pre-storm enviroment drops. As the lastest dropsonde lat/ longs, are ahead of Emily.
Data may be used in the 12Z models. My speculation there


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: danielw]
      #43199 - Fri Jul 15 2005 01:48 AM

HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI JUL 15 2005 edited~danielw

..DANGEROUS HURRICANE EMILY REACHES CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

...INFORMATION FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE
AND ARE NOW NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS
NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...
**************************************************************************


Latest Vortex message has yet another pressure fall. Pressure is now down to 952mb at 0503Z.
Previous pressure was 958mb at 0130Z.
That's 6mb in 4.5 hours. A little better than Emily's earlier average of 2mb per hour.

Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 15 2005 01:51 AM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: RECON [Re: danielw]
      #43200 - Fri Jul 15 2005 01:49 AM

Cat 4 now pressure down to 952mb

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: danielw]
      #43201 - Fri Jul 15 2005 01:53 AM

ahhh never mind!






'shana

allrighty then - edited because all my questions were answered when you edited! lol

Edited by ShanaTX (Fri Jul 15 2005 01:59 AM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43202 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:01 AM

Quote:

ahhh never mind!






'shana

allrighty then - edited because all my questions were answered when you edited! lol





Daniel got me with one of those edits also Have a good night

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43203 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:02 AM

Not necessarily faster. But she is stronger.
NHC has classified Emily a CAT 4, as of the latest Advisory.
Latest pressure fall, per hour, is slower than it was earlier today/ last night.
Slower pressure drops don't always mean the storm is leveling off. It's more of a trend than anything.

NHC was issuing information faster than I could post.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 15 2005 02:04 AM)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: HCW]
      #43204 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:03 AM

Whew... glad I'm not the only one! Daniel's a clever one, huh?

I'll be crashin soon - figure I'll be doin the up all night thing when Emily gets closer to the US...

'shana

Quote:

Slower pressure drops don't always mean the storm is leveling off. It's more of a trend than anything.




Oh ... ok! Everything's a trend with hurricanes... they trend their way across the ocean

And you're editing faster than I can type!!!

Edited by ShanaTX (Fri Jul 15 2005 02:05 AM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43205 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:10 AM

Does it look like shes doing an EWRC ?

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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: HCW]
      #43206 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:13 AM

Sure hope you're not askin me about the EWRC! LOL

At least I know what it is....

'shana


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43207 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:16 AM

Quote:

Sure hope you're not askin me about the EWRC! LOL

At least I know what it is....

'shana



Not yet, considering the convection is growing around the eye, not decreasing.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #43208 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 AM

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.

--------------------
I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #43209 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:37 AM

Quote:

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.




I'm with you. I don't feel comfortable with this one until she's made landfall. Or as some of the models are indicating...lost her spin.

Okay, Recon has departed the storm and next Vortex is due at 12Z or 8AM EDT. Unless the NOAA plane is tasked with fixes while the USAFR isn't flying.
NOAA planes pulled double duty with Dennis. They could do it again with Emily.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Emily Now a CAT 4 [Re: danielw]
      #43210 - Fri Jul 15 2005 02:41 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Man oh man, nothing ceases at amaze me at this point. I mean the rapid strengthening that Dennis and now Emily have undergone is just something to watch. Let's hope Emily stays south, but I am beginning to get the feeling that Emily might make a US landfall......Texas really needs to watch and I don't think Louisiana is out of the woods yet either.




I'm with you. I don't feel comfortable with this one until she's made landfall. Or as some of the models are indicating...lost her spin.

Okay, Recon has departed the storm and next Vortex is due at 12Z or 8AM EDT. Unless the NOAA plane is tasked with fixes while the USAFR isn't flying.
NOAA planes pulled double duty with Dennis. They could do it again with Emily.



Aren't the recon flights dropping drop sondes in the area to help determine the future environment?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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