tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
You know I think you must be right. You probably don't have to take the plunge to be a college freshman until you are 30 or so.
Hey now, I hope you weren't being facetious.
My first run at college was when I was 18. I had no idea what I wanted to do and it was a waste. My second was at 19 - I still had little idea of what I wanted to do.
Got married at 22, had a few kids. Figured out what I wanted to do at 24, but due to being the bread winner, had to make a clandestine effort to do so. At 30, I went back to school, wrapped up my degree in a year, landed a great job.
I'm now launching my second design studio (first one was co-owned when I was 26 and my business partner and I diverged in our goals).
There's nothing wrong with making a decision on a second major while you're not responsible for bringing in the bacon for anyone other than yourself.  There's actually nothing wrong with doing so later in life, it just becomes more difficult to do it for prolonged periods of time unless you are financially independent
Follow your dreams, do what you love and you can't help but love what you do.
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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I don't understand what's going on this year but it seems like this year the amount of people completely missing the disclaimer is much higher than last year. Nowhere on the site says "we are the offical source for information. We are equal to or greater than the and you need to heed our warnings." It's made clear that this is a site for hobbyists. Yes there are mets on here but that does not mean this is a better source of info than the and no one ever claims to be.
It should be pretty apparent and common sense that most people posting are learning, attempting predictions, discussing. If someone comes here, reads a post and believes it as fact without researching further their injury or death is on them. No one here is responsible for any of that.
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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http://www.wunderground.com/education/steveg_blog/steere1.gif
NL, this should put your mind @ ease, these are the current primary steering currents. For now it does not very likely for a Florida landfall. Things can change, though, so you never know.
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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Quote:
Its all about fame and glory for the guys make there predictions on these boards as its boring to say the looks right on target so they always find something different from what the says and last year made fun of them alot when they were wrong.
Do you really think someone claims glory on where a storm goes? People here give their opinions on the storms. The DISCLAIMER for this site clearly states that this is not an official site. Generally if someone is looking for information on what to do to keep their property and loved ones safe, they go to their local officials. Please have a little respect for all the folks that do enjoy this site.
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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EMILY STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NOW A CATEGORY HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST OR ABOUT 560
MILES... 905 KM... SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS A CATEGORY
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 90SE 60SW 125NW.
11 am is out
guess taz beat me by seconds lol
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 64.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 63.2W
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Thu Jul 14 2005 02:39 PM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Thanks everyone for participating in this forum.
Just a note to those that think Emily will suddenly turn toward Florida.
There are weather dynamics that create the conditions that allow these storms
to turn. Right now, there is a ridge of high pressure North of Emily which will keep her moving WNW.
Last year for example was forecast to come in over Tampa Bay.
The trough picked up a bit sooner than predicted but the turn was always in the forecast and within the forecast "cone".
I always pay attention to the advisories and when a storm is heading in my general direction, I keep in mind that it can turn. But to panic and worry that each storm is coming to your area or try and wishcast it to do so only creates confusion and needless frustration.
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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she will rip the tile off of your roof now.
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cheers
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Hey now, I hope you weren't being facetious.
Who, me? Noooo...I am just waiting to hear more insights from "nl." I mean, that is why I came to this site, to hear meterological detail from people who know what they are talking about, and in this case someone who also seems to have caught on to something that the entire hasn't considered, such as the "spin of death," " the cone of death," and especially how hurricanes are going to "blow up the scale...too cat 6." It's so helpful, and really adds something, don't you think?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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Actually, Terra, you've got it right. The eye is the area of the lowest barometric pressure. The strongest warming in a hurricane is found at upper levels in the eye due to sinking air. In fact, the eye is such a clear region because of the sinking air.
This sinking air is a necessary artifact of hurricanes, in fact; with such strong rising motion in the eyewall (and through the convective mass as well), there must be some compensating sinking motion to maintain balance. Some of this is seen on the outer periphery of the storm, but the majority of this is found within the eye. The sinking causes the air at upper levels to warm -- forced descent is a warming process -- and helps drive the warm-core structure of the cyclone. With all of that heating at upper levels, the strongest response in the hurricane, coincidentally enough, is found at the surface. The response of the storm at the surface is to deepen, leading to increased rising motion and, given favorable surface & upper-air conditions, a feedback cycle upon which the storm can intensify.
The stronger the storm, the stronger the descent within the eye. The need for this descent & the associated warming aloft is the primary reason why you don't ever see the eye contract to a near-zero diameter: if it were to do so, the sinking motion would be cut off, weakening the warming aloft (which in a hurricane is not due to convection), and the pressure would begin to rise. That's why you see eyewall replacement cycles with these storms, as the natural tendency for any eyewall is to contract. The science behind that one is pretty complicated, though (heavy in physical and dynamical meteorology), and I'll leave it for another day.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Discussion 15 is out.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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ralphfl, it appears as though you have a bone to pick, and if you -- or anyone else -- wish to do so in the future, please talk with the forecaster(s) in question via private message only. This is not the place for such messages. Storm analysis is welcome here; lashing out at others is not. Thank you.
Now, let's get back to the topic of the day: a strengthening category 2 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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I'm sure changing his degree and his courses would help to correct any knowledge deficiency.
We all know that there is no Cat 6 simply because the damage from a Cat 5 (see Camille) is complete and total. A weak 5, a strong 5 - doesn't matter.
He's just asking a question many others have asked over the last year and change that I've been here.
I personally think that if the started using the "cone of death" it might actually get attention too. Sensationalism sells, ya know?
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Clark... while you are talking abou eyes, I have noticed in some visible satellite images of intense hurricanes, the indentation around the eyewall (the "calm" I guess) only going down to a certain depth (ie you wouldn't be able to see the ocean while flying around in the eyewall). Something similar happened with Isabel a few years ago:
http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/030913.isabel.gif
If you have a fast internet connection where you are, take a look at this one:
http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov
What is going on here?
EDIT: While you wouldn't need a cat VI rating (as you said, the damage is allready complete at category 5) you could probably technically do it for those "once in a quarter of a century" storms like Gilbert, Mitch, Camille, etc.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 14 2005 03:19 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I personally think that if the started using the "cone of death" it might actually get attention too. Sensationalism sells, ya know?
That's kinda funny.
You know I was reading a story on cnn.com about someone who stayed in their home during and the home was hit by the storm surge. The experience they described was horrific. As their home washed away they spent 9 hours in the storm waters. These same folks decided to ignore the evac order for as well...the reasoning was as follows: "We've been through the worst. It couldn't get any worse," "You can't run from every one of them," and "I'm a firm believer you don't die before your time."
One of my own brothers said to me about , when it strengthened to a solid CAT 4 and changed direction to the west, "It doesn't matter where the forecast goes. We're staying here."
There you go...as much as I do like the idea, don't think the "cone of death" would change the minds of the folks whose minds need changing.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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jr928
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
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a mexican soaker
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Hey... my uncle took his wife and dog and drove from Orlando to Homestead through the outer rain bands to ride out a category five hurricane with us. Now I think that beats them all!
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cheers
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Quote:
"I'm a firm believer you don't die before your time."
However, you can increase the odds of it being your time?
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Quote:
I think the should officialy employ the use of "The Cone of Death". THAT would get peoples attention. 
Actually, it should read "Cone of Doom"
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"Chance favors the prepared mind"
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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more so... what if it IS your time?
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cheers
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