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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: drcrazibob]
      #43070 - Thu Jul 14 2005 02:40 PM

Why is the floater loop an hour old all of the sudden. I just got an image on Emily's eye at 16:45... and now we are back to 15:45 (?) . The guy who runs the RAMSDIS loops is doing something screwy as well (they switch to focus on a close up Emily's extreme southern banding when the eye is forming (?).

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cheers


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: drcrazibob]
      #43071 - Thu Jul 14 2005 02:46 PM

^ bumpy ride? Actually, if it was to head for Port Arthur/Galveston I'd say be prepared to evacuate.

See Harris County OEM Hurricane page for evac routes and a link to surge info for counties nearby.

Evacuation and Risk Maps - NWS Houston/Galveston


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Playa del carmen/Emily [Re: ShanaTX]
      #43072 - Thu Jul 14 2005 02:49 PM

Here is a pic of Playa Del Camen,mx.Where I use to live and where Emily is heading.What a shame.

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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog [Re: ralphfl]
      #43073 - Thu Jul 14 2005 02:55 PM

ralph, at the time, that is what the forecast models were saying, that is where the NHC track placed the threat undeer towards, and that is what the storm appeared to be doing. Things change, and so do forecasts, as we've seen with Emily many times already -- both on its track and intensity. Being so far out, that is bound to happen with almost any storm. Bottom line, you just have to be prepared in advance and ready to execute a plan in case the storm does threaten you. No one was implying a threat any more so than the official forecast, forecast guidance, and synoptic environment suggested. Take a look at the initial 5-day NHC forecasts and you'll see this.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog [Re: Clark]
      #43074 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:08 PM

Regardless... there is no room for forecast decent now… Even Joe Bastardi said this morning; the NHC forecast is “perfectly fine” at this juncture (thats right, naysayers!). No one is really way out there with this one, so there is no real reason to complain at the moment. It has no precedence.


EDIT: Indeed, Bob. Not that this is much in the way of consolation... but I have observed that *most* areas spring back better than before in the extended wake of a major hit. This includes enviornmental factors as well.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Emily's eye [Re: Lysis]
      #43075 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:11 PM

Quote:

A small, ill-defined eye is now observable, tucked in that tightly wrapped CDO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html




The eye can be seen more clearly on the water vapor loop.

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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Emily a Hurricane [Re: Lysis]
      #43076 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:17 PM

Last night and this morning I was getting Dennis images ??

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Franklin? [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #43077 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:32 PM

That next system out in the Atlantic looks quite impressive on satellite imaging. Any news on its development? I know it's too far out for recon-but it sures looks like it's developing. I wonder how that Atlantic ridge will affect it's track?

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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Rob1966
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Cooper City Florida
Re: Playa del carmen/Emily [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #43079 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:40 PM

Well, here I sit in a wireless restaurant in Cancun. Very strange feeling in this town. They are already taking prelimiary action in the event Emily stays on her present course. I am supposed to be here till late Sunday. Hum.................

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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Playa del carmen/Emily [Re: Rob1966]
      #43080 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:41 PM

Get pictures!!

In all seriousness, keep safe. Even if it means no pictures.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Emily's eye [Re: Margie]
      #43081 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:44 PM

Wow...the eye just "popped out" on the last couple of frames...and it looks VERY defined

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Re: Emily's eye [Re: WeatherNut]
      #43082 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:46 PM

It has been gaining a lot of strength lately, Hopefully this trend doesn't continue too much before landfall, wherever she's going.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Franklin? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #43084 - Thu Jul 14 2005 03:55 PM

Hard to tell right now Joe. I've been watching this one since it came off Africa and today we are finally seeing convection re-fire. This one may very well get steered westward, since it still far enough south to maintain its current motionand the ridge should build between iot and the ULL moving in tandem well to the north.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Franklin? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #43087 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:05 PM

Not sure which you are referring to:

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC ALONG 23W S OF 19N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT. THE WAVE DISPLAYS A GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE BUT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ALOFT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41W S OF 21N WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 15.5N-18N BETWEEN 39W-42W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS. ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS NEARING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WHICH IS CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Emily's eye [Re: BullitNutz]
      #43089 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM

Looks like she has been going nearly due west last few frames.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Emily's eye [Re: WeatherNut]
      #43090 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

Wow...the eye just "popped out" on the last couple of frames...and it looks VERY defined




You're not kidding. Emily sure has come a long way since about 1.5 days ago. Some were thinking she might come to her demise(I thought there was a good chance) because of her proximity to S. Amer., and propensity(at the time) to continue moving south. Now she's almost a cat 3.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
not due west...a wobble [Re: AgentB]
      #43092 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:35 PM

the eye is wobbling a tad around the overall force of the hurricane, the but general motion is still .2w, 1.0 north, or so....will probably track south of Jamaica.

my guess is Cat 3 status next advisory...and Emily will blow up to a 4 or 5, and go through eyewall replacement cycles....appears to be a small storm like Dennis, since the eyewall is 10 miles dia.

it'll be interesting to see if in three days, the environment around her changes...too far out to discount anything..

never see 'em this far south do we?...

wonder if that means it'll be hard to predict?...what will keep it west?....


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nl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
Re: not due west...a wobble [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #43093 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:40 PM

holy coconuts! look at the size of the wave behind the second one off africa geez!

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: not due west...a wobble [Re: Rick on boat in Mobile]
      #43094 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM

Emily becomes a dangerous category three hurricane...
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica. At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 13.3 north... longitude 65.9 west or about 445 miles...
720 km... southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Maximum sustained winds continue to increase and are now near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. Emily is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale...the second major hurricane of the season. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb...28.59 inches

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: not due west...a wobble [Re: nl]
      #43095 - Thu Jul 14 2005 04:42 PM

99L is back on NRL now

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