Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
not posted a whole bunch recently but heres my two pennies worth on Emily. I for one largely agree with the forecast at present - especially on track. I think she will pass just to the SW of Jamaica, then just to the south of Grand Cayman on the weekend. After that it is a tough call. I reckon we will still see a Yucatan crossing, but how far north along the peninsula is another matter. Given how well she has organised in the past 12 to 18 hours, and the excellent satellite presentation, i can see no reason for her not to get stronger. There is an evident which i think we will see open into an eye within the next few hours. Certainly one for everyone around the centrala and western caribbean to be watching closely.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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If Emily slows down somewaht I can see the UKMET and Canadian models coming to fruition and Emily crossing the Yucatan straits and perhaps onto Texas. It is too early to see this though- but it may come to pass.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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My other brother, the one who works for the sheriff's dept, said that when the curfew was lifted before everyone returned who had evacuated because of , there was a rash of burglaries in those unoccupied homes; between 30 and 40 burglaries. Actually a real incentive for some not to evacuate in the future. This is in part because people have to travel so far now to evacuate, especially along the MS Gulf Coast. Hotel rooms in Hattiesburg, Jackson, and Montgomery are long gone by the time these folks have to evacuate.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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drcrazibob
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Daytona Beach, Fl
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I obviously am not a weather expert, but out of curiousity... what would happen if the storm crosses into the pacific? Is that possible, and if so what would they do about its name?
Bob
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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1996-Hurricane Cesar (7/25-28) crossed Central America and became "Douglas" in the eastern Pacific, the strongest major hurricane in that basin during 1996. Cesar and Dolly (8/19-23) killed at least 65 people in Central America and Mexico
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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i didnt say the cone of death would make people leave. i just said they should take precautions if they are in the cone especially 3 days out or less. 
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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and bout the cat. 6 i didnt mean there is a such thing im just saying they could be a super hurricane one day that would have higher winds then a cat 5 therefore they would have too have a cat 6
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Category 5 has no upper limits; it's anyything with wind in excess of 155 MPH.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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ok so then a super 5
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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You're missing the point.
They're rated by windspeed because of the damage that certain speed winds can cause.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D1.html
Accordingly, anything beyond 155 will continue to cause catastrophic damage. There's no need for a "super 5" because a 156 mph storm and a 220 mph storm will each cause catastrophic damage.
Until there are new advancements in building design and structural integrity, there's not going to be a need for a 6.
When we get to the point when a "cheap" house survives 200 mph winds and 20+ foot storm surge, drop a line to the - I'm sure they'll consider it then 
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yawn..........uh, oh...what's new? Looks like outside of Tex/Mex all's quiet. If Emily behaves anyhow. 99L still a concern for development but the question is does it continues westward. Nice wave behind 99L has cleared the CV Islands may develop down the road. Other than that, all's quiet on the eastern side of central Florida today, and most everywhere else in the .
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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If you are curious, see hurricane Mitch... Camille... Typhoon Tip. All had winds over 185mph at their peaks and insane low pressures to boot. However, as has been said... 155 sustained is more than enough to completly destroy most structures that we can craft, so it is kind of like adding insult to injury.
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cheers
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Here is the list of all the names:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml
Upon reading your post on Cesar becoming Douglas, the following extremely silly thought occured to me: someday a "he" might cross into the Pacific and become a "she," or vice versa.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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What we saw with Isabel is the breakdown of the eyewall into a number of mesovortices. They are pretty cool to watch, but not exactly the easiest things to model or understand dynamically.
Essentially, when the system gets wrapped up too tightly, the eyewall can breakdown into these vortices. Essentially, the eyewall is a sheet of what we call vorticity -- cyclonic spin. If the conditions are right, as they sometimes are with very intense storms, the eyewall can become barotropically unstable (what that exactly means is a matter which could take awhile to explain due to the math, but focus on the unstable part), leading to its spin-up into a number of vortices. This is where the mesovortices seen with Isabel arose from.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Mesovorticies was the word I was thinking that day; remember the question about Andrew?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Cancun Weather Watcher
Registered User
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Wondering if it is just me, but doesnt look Emily very much like Gilbert in 1988
Any thoughts??
Worried here in Cancun
Cheers
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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From yesterday:
I feel the ultimate path will be determined by which way it goes by Jamaica. Looking a visible satellite we see the gulf devoid of any signifcant convection meaning that a large ridge has built there. The latest model run's of the and seem highly likely given the steering regime. I would consider the or even the WRF solution right now even though that is generally not considered a synoptic model. The takes it over Jamaica which as we have seen in the past doesn't work, especially with a small tight strong circulation that is forecasted to near the area. Either way I think the BOC is a likely place for it to end up at the end of the forecast period. The biggest area that should be concerned in U.S should be Texas right now.
My thoughts from yesterday are the same today.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Thought I would put this link up for anyone that cares to check the track verification from all models and .
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200505.asp?imgfeature=verification&textfeature=track
For a different storm, where it says at200505, just type in 01, 02, 03, 04 etc etc where ending 05 is
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Wondering if it is just me, but doesnt look Emily very much like Gilbert in 1988
Any thoughts??
Worried here in Cancun
Cheers
I am former Playa Del Carmen local,and I hate to say it but right now it does not look good for you guys.They are pretty confident it will hit near or at Cancun/Playa Del Camen.It does look alot like Gilbert. 
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yes, as far as the US is concerned, its either Texas or bust for Emily. 99L is getting a bit better organized today (yes, its still on the backup site). Convection is starting to fire around the circulation near 15.8N. This one continues to move is a general WNW motion.
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