Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Thanks Clark. Conservation of angular momentum... now why didn't I think of that?
Because they are spinning more rapidly, like the classic example of a skater spinning more quickly as the arms are pulled into the body, then other things such as intensity changes can happen at a more rapid rate?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Hi all. well in my last post Sunday afternoon I stated that we were in the eyewall of Hurricane and could not figure out why we had power.......................just got the power on this morning...should have kept my mouth shut.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Hi all. well in my last post Sunday afternoon I stated that we were in the eyewall of Hurricane and could not figure out why we had power.......................just got the power on this morning...should have kept my mouth shut.
Hey it sure is good to see you back!
Please tell...about your experience.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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From this GOES satellite, if you put in the forecast points it appears it will miss the Yucatan completely. What gives?
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Good to be back on.I haven't been on since last year's storms. I have been watching the postings for past coulpe of days though. Just wanted to say hi. I really still am a newby and trying to understand everything still. Emily still looking good today!
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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AndyG
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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Quote:
Hi all. well in my last post Sunday afternoon I stated that we were in the eyewall of Hurricane and could not figure out why we had power.......................just got the power on this morning...should have kept my mouth shut.
Welcome back! Can't wait to here about your ordeal with .
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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99L seems to be getting better organized. Even though it looks like the cyclonic turning is still out in front of the storms, but if one of the meteorologists could chime in on what their assessment of 99L is as of this moment, it would be greatly helpful.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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Quote:
99L seems to be getting better organized. Even though it looks like the cyclonic turning is still out in front of the storms, but if one of the meteorologists could chime in on what their assessment of 99L is as of this moment, it would be greatly helpful.
That's what I have waiting to hear on too.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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From Jeff Master's blog on wunderground (this also answers my question about the increase in size):
"When hurricanes undergo a major eyewall replacement cycle like Emily's current one, they often take a jog in their forward motion. This has critical implications for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A substantial jog to the north in the next few hours would bring the core of the hurricane directly over Jamaica tomorrow. When Hurricane approached Cuba last week, the storm did an eyewall replacement cycle and wobbled to the north. However, there is no way to foretell what Emily's current reorganization will do to its track.
Another consequence of Emily's reorganization is that the storm appears to be expanding in size. Emily was a compact spiral of clouds last night, with it spiral bands not quite stretching north and south to span the Caribbean. Now, the storm fills the Caribbean more completely. This will also have important and unforecastable consequences on Emily's track, as a larger storm will respond differently to upper-level steering currents.
The computer models are tightly clustered around a track bringing Emily across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, then into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba. I've mentioned in the past that when the models tightly cluster like this, it's usually a pretty sure bet that the storm will follow the suggested path. However, the models have been tightly clusted for about 12 hours now, but Emily has not budged from its steady path south of the predicted model path. This may be a case where all the models are using the same bad data as input, and thus generating an incorrect forecast. Thus, anticipates Emily will stay south of Jamaica and the Caymans, and hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula instead. I don't think we'll know the answer until late this afternoon at the earliest, when Emily finishes its reorganization and resumes intensifying again."
Wunderground has also started a blog from someone on the Cayman Islands, which should be interesting to read during the next day or so.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Every day I am hearing about a couple of homes going up in flames from cloud to ground lightning in C FL. So, I have a question for the knowledgable here:
Does cloud to ground lightning just happen and the bolt goes where it goes till it finally gets grounded? Or, as the bolt approaches the ground can it be manipulated to strike somewhere other than the destination it chose as it left the clouds?
I understand lightning protection is available.. but what I am more interested in is whether that bolt will generally seek a higher object to hit like a house roof or tree that might be 50 feet from its projection or is it going to strike exactly the pinpoint course it left the cloud with, irregardless where that is on the ground, high or low?
Thanks!
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Margie -- well, that's somewhat the case. It is true that as you bring something in closer, like arms, the entire body will spin faster. But, that's not necessarily why they can respond to changes faster -- the overall small size leads to a lesser area to either spread out positive or negative feedback upon the storm. This can work to lower the pressure rapidly due to very concentrated energy (in simple terms), or to raise it rapidly due to not being able to mix out the negative effects.
99L -- there's some moderate westerly shear across the storm, leaving what circulation is there somewhat exposed. It's a rather small entity and has a shot, but anything that happens isn't going to happen fast.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Thx much Clark! I should have thought of that.
To Reddington Beach guy - FL does have more lightning strikes than other states, but lightning doesn't always start a house fire. It can ruin electronic equipment (had one fry a TV when I lived in AL...just after the warranty ended too!) and can do things like knock a hole in the roof as well.
Here is an article on protecting your home from lighting from a FL news station from end of May of this year:
http://www.nbc-2.com/articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=3513&z=3&p=
From the Miami Herald today, two houses were hit with lightning but neither one caught on fire:
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12136109.htm
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Jul 15 2005 01:43 PM)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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clark,
do you think there is any merit to the idea that 99L will split off and the
northern part will get taken off and the southern part will continue west?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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2pm is out, showing Emily continuing to weaken, but still Cat 3.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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looks like Emily is weakening due to a combination of wind shear and interaction with South America
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
looks like Emily is weakening due to a combination of wind shear and interaction with South America
How about the fact its in the middle of an EWRC?
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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ewrc?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Quote:
ewrc?
Eyewall Replacement Cycle.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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BobVee
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 15
Loc: Florida
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There are a number of very good sites that explain the physics of lightning. There is no direct path to any specific object and no guarantee that an object higher than another will be the point of discharge. Air is a dielectric, meaning that it provides a degree of insulation between charges of two different polarities. Cloud bottoms, particular in storms, are negatively charged, mainly because an electron is stripped from atoms of moisture as they rise. Cloud tops become positively charged. As the lower cloud builds up negative charge, the electrons on the earth's surface (and any object) are forced downward, making the earth surface (and objects) positively charged. As the difference in charges or difference of potential builds up, the air dielectric becomes less of an insulator and it will tend to breakdown, but not in a straight line, resulting in ionization of the air. This can occur anywhere depending on exacty how high the differential buildup. A leader from the cloud goes downward while a streamer goes upward from the ground or objects on the ground. The result is a complete breakdown and a conductive path is established. Positive electrons like to collect on very narrow pointed objects, hence the greater probability that a conductive path is greater from those objects to the downward leader, i.e. lightning rods, towers, etc. But a person standing on the ground may very well provide that high collection point. A lot of people are injured or killed by lightning when the lightning strikes a nearby object. Secondary paths are opened up as well and discharge occurs simultaneously with the main strike.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The visuals indicate due west for the last several hours
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doug
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