Margie
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This may be a stupid question, but - on the satellite image to the west of Emily you can see clouds at different heights moving different directions. Is this related to wind shear or just normal to have winds at different levels going different directions?
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Clark
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It's normal, Margie, to see that. It's somewhat a marker of the vertical wind shear as well.
Rabbit -- the eyewall replacement cycle is likely having the biggest impact upon the storm's intensity, but I wil lagree that shear and dry air entrainment may either slow the process or serve to keep a check on its intensity once the cycle completes (and all indications are that it is close to finishing).
Regarding 99L -- haven't had the chance to take a look at it to see what it may or may not do; I've been too busy with Emily and my own research work, sorry. Perhaps HF or one of the other mets. here can fill you all in on the invest in a couple-few hours.
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AgentB
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Quote:
Camille did not have an extremely small eye. A US Army Corp of Engineers map showed the eye to be 12 miles in diameter, centered over Waveland and going over the bay and part of Pass Christian at landfall.
True, Camille's eye was about 12mi in diameter. So was Andrew's and Hugo's, both devastating hurricanes. However, 12mi isn't really that wide of an eye. was a very small storm, had a very compact eye, and that's why it was able to intensify so rapidly.
Emily has been moving more west than north. .4N/2.0W from 8am to 2pm.
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Rasvar
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Another example to use for the idea of a smaller eye spinning up faster could be using an ice skater. When a skater starts a spin, they will usually have their arms out, as they pull their arms in, the speed of thier spin increases. A contracting eye can do the same thing. Expansion would slow down the speeds. Contracting can lead to increasing speed. This is not an absolute; but is a good general rule. You do not need a small eye for an intense storm. A small eye does help, though.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Fri Jul 15 2005 08:15 PM)
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Allison
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I have a question about the different model runs that hopefully Clark or one of the other mets can answer....
Why do the model here and the (?) model here each seem to initialize Emily with a different surface pressure, even though they appear to have run at the same time?
I'm wondering because, in the model, where she appears to be much stronger, the model takes her more north into the upper Texas coast, while the others are all in line for a Tex/Mex hit.
Thoughts?
Thanks!
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Allison
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Clark
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Allison, the models are limited to what they can initialize the storm at by their resolution. The has a horizontal resolution of about 36km, while the and most global models are at 110km (the UKMET model is closer to 80-85km). Since storms are so small -- especially Emily -- they aren't gonig to have enough data in the inner core than will a mesoscale model like the . What impact that might have on track forecasts remains to be seen, however.
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Margie
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Emily down to a Cat 2. It will be interesting to see what tonight and tomorrow brings, although forecast did not anticipate any strengthening. Tomorrow afternoon and evng will be interesting, if that is the appropriate word, as Emily goes past Jamaica and Cayman Islands.
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ShanaTX
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Are we not getting satellite pics? I can't find any current ones...
'shana
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HCW
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Quote:
Are we not getting satellite pics? I can't find any current ones...
'shana
goes is down right now. Not sure of the reason.
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angelswatch
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Edited by angelswatch (Fri Jul 15 2005 10:58 PM)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Thank you 
Quote:
ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
bad link?
Edited by ShanaTX (Fri Jul 15 2005 10:56 PM)
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angelswatch
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It has been edited now. I didn't get the complete adress copied and pasted Sorry . I'm new to all this computer stuff!
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ShanaTX
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Quote:
It has been edited now. I didn't get the complete adress copied and pasted Sorry . I'm new to all this computer stuff!
No worries!
That's an old one now - I can't find one after the time stamp of 19:15 ...
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Storm Cooper
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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
22:46 so things seem to be getting back to normal. At least w/ MSFC. The others should be OK if it was a GEOS problem as HCW reported.
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ShanaTX
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Quote:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
22:46 so things seem to be getting back to normal. At least w/ MSFC. The others should be OK if it was a GEOS problem as HCW reported.
Thank you very very much. I thought maybe we had to worry about Martians on top of everything else! (That was a joke y'all ... really!)
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Margie
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Taking into consideration I don't know anything about meteorlogy and I understand that there are many factors which interact in a complex way...
doesn't it seem that with the very last satellite pic (19:15 UTC) Emily's core is looking a lot better? Isn't the outer part of the storm what you call the outflow (which can be seen mostly to the N and E at the moment. Is it possible that the core of the storm could slough the outer edges of this part off, and the storm could become more compact again?
Taking into acct the forecast, it seems probable once Emily gets just a little further north and away from S. Amer, and into the warmer part of the Caribbean to the west, that it could intensify. Going on what was discussed this am, if it compacts in size it could intensify more than forecast at the moment.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Jul 15 2005 11:10 PM)
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Quote:
Are we not getting satellite pics? I can't find any current ones...
'shana
We are presently experiencing a MET7, G-12 and Polar data outage.
Wallops had antenna hit, as information becomes available we will send
update.."
On the GOES website:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/messages.html
And here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/bulletins.html
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dearolecleo
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Loc: Ellenton, Florida
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The last satellite photo shows that it looks like Emily has split in two. That was about 10 minutes ago
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danielw
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Latest Vortex just in.
Pressure at 958mb
Max Flight Level Wind 108 kts, (124mph) NE Quadrant at 23:20Z
Or 23 minutes ago.
Eye- OPEN SW and 10 nm in diameter.
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 15 2005 11:45 PM)
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
The last satellite photo shows that it looks like Emily has split in two. That was about 10 minutes ago
Huh?
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