BillD
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Clark posted a good explanation of this a while back (too much to wade through to find it). I am sure he will elaborate when he has time, or will correct me if I am misrepresenting what he said  , But in summary, we know very little about eyewall replacement, we don't know exactly why it happens, and know very little as to the timing of when it happens, just that it does happen, mostly (but not always) with major hurricanes.
Bill
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Margie
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To me this is more interesting than if a hurricane was headed for the US; one I'm much more relaxed, now that I don't have to worry about someone I love being in a risky weather situation. Two because how many storms to we get to observe that can go to CAT 5 status? It is just facinating to watch. Even the last two sat visuals (17:45 and 18:15 UTC) are facinating; look at the perfectly round donut shape of the tight core of clouds around the eye.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Allison
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Quote:
Clark posted a good explanation of this a while back (too much to wade through to find it). I am sure he will elaborate when he has time, or will correct me if I am misrepresenting what he said , But in summary, we know very little about eyewall replacement, we don't know exactly why it happens, and know very little as to the timing of when it happens, just that it does happen, mostly (but not always) with major hurricanes.
Thanks, Bill!
We have been talking alot about eyewalls on this board lately, but I didn't remember seeing anything specifically about timing of the replacement cycle and when peak intensity occurs in the cycle...
But I did manage to go back and find one of Clark's explanations from several months ago:
Quote:
What is still unknown is the exact predictability of when one is going to occur as well as how fast they will occur and how far they will reach towards the center before resulting in the collapse of the original eyewall.
So I guess the answer is... 
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Allison
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Margie
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Look at 18:45 UTC water vapor...she is still cooking.
EDIT: 19:45 UTC looks even more impressive. She looks like a CAT 5 now; it will be interesting to see the results of the next recon.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Jul 16 2005 08:39 PM)
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ShanaTX
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Loc: Texas
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FYI ... even if Emily goes in south of the border, she could affect alot of people not only in Mexico, but in South and Central Texas.
'shana
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jrhurricane
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I don't know if Central Texas may get much out of Emily, maybe some rain but I don't think it would....but anyone else know if Emily is supposed to hit Central Florida or at least bands to hit Central Texas. I think Southern Texas might get hit by Emily...I dont know about Central, it is possible...what does everyone else think?
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Jordan Ross Schroeder
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HCW
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any new recon info ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Can someone tell me if this is the latest vortex? If so 151kts in the NE Quad is almost 170mph. Is this right?
URNT12 KNHC 161739
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/17:17:40Z
B. 16 DEG 22 MIN N
077 DEG 52 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2549 M
D. 25 KT
E. 317 DEG 103 NM
F. 052 DEG 141 KT
G. 335 DEG 008 NM
H. 937 MB
I. 9 C/ 2986 M
J. 20 C/ 3047 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C11
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 NM
P. AF302 0705A EMILY OB 23
MAX FL WIND 151 KT NE QUAD 15:18:30 Z
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Doombot!
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Thats flight level wind = 174 mph. Surface winds would equate to ~ 150 - 160 MPH.
Still 155 MPH at 5PM.
Edited by Doombot! (Sat Jul 16 2005 08:46 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Pretty Impressive
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/hurseas2005/Emily1845zc-050716-1kg12.jpg (copy/paste into IE)
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
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Quote:
Thats flight level wind = 174 mph. Surface winds would equate to ~ 150 - 160 MPH
ok thanks I was getting worried there for a sec thought I was looking at another Camille or something. Aint too good her in da south to read all this recon/ vortex but learning
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cjzydeco
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Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Very well put! 
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Margie
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I just realized the huge gap between the time I get to see the sat image on 's website and the timing of the information from the recon flights...it's quarter to four local time (2045Z) and I just looked at the most recent sat image but it is an hour old (1945Z).
Emily's core has looked "better" with every sat image so I can only imagine what she looks like right now.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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Quote:
Thats flight level wind = 174 mph. Surface winds would equate to ~ 150 - 160 MPH.
Still 155 MPH at 5PM.
Yes but that's going on the recon from just after noon today CDT, right? We should be seeing the results of another recon by around dinnertime?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ShanaTX
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Quote:
I don't know if Central Texas may get much out of Emily, maybe some rain but I don't think it would....but anyone else know if Emily is supposed to hit Central Florida or at least bands to hit Central Texas. I think Southern Texas might get hit by Emily...I dont know about Central, it is possible...what does everyone else think?
I'm just going by what happened with two previous big hurricanes - Gilbert and Allen. There were tornadoes etc here. It's pretty difficult for a hurricane to actually hit Austin - we're not on the coast. But Carla in 1961 was still a Cat 1 when she got here.
And the Rio Grande Vallley (Brownsville on up the river, Larado etc) could possibly get the bad side of Emily depending on how far N/S she is on landfall.
I'm not gloom and doomin south and central Texas, just sayin that if Emily makes landfall in Mexico, parts of Texas could be adversely affected.
'shana
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Doombot!
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Quote:
Quote:
Thats flight level wind = 174 mph. Surface winds would equate to ~ 150 - 160 MPH.
Still 155 MPH at 5PM.
Yes but that's going on the recon from just after noon today CDT, right? We should be seeing the results of another recon by around dinnertime?
I would assume that they are pretty much in and out all the time.
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Frank P
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Someone mentioned earlier about the lack of posts on the board, or lack of interest for Emily... I don't agree that there is any lack of interest... I am following Em just as diligently as I did ... only issue or rather non issue with Emily is that is has been so well behaved and basically right on track, with the exception of its tremendous intensification process, which is absolutely amazing to watch... I think things will pick up quite a bit on the board once it enters the GOM... and yes, there is more interest all in all if there appears it could impact the US... I think a threat to Florida generates the most interest, following by a central or east central GOM threat, but that is only natural of course... Emily is an amazing system... I just can't imagine the stress level that would preclude it if it were to threaten the US as a strong 4 or heavens forbid a 5... One only has to wonder what's in store for the all of us for rest of the season... and how likely some poor city is going to get blasted with a major hurricane later on.. It almost seems inevitable at the moment...
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Thats flight level wind = 174 mph. Surface winds would equate to ~ 150 - 160 MPH.
Still 155 MPH at 5PM.
Yes but that's going on the recon from just after noon today CDT, right? We should be seeing the results of another recon by around dinnertime?
I would assume that they are pretty much in and out all the time.
No, I think they have a schedule and I think it is every six hours. I am not sure if I am understanding it correctly but it looks like right now it takes them about five hours just to get there, after taking off.
I was reading about what they do with those C-130s. They take the entire center of the plane where you'd normally have cargo or people, and turn it into one huge gas tank.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ohioaninmiss
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Loc: Columbus, OH
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5:00 is up - looks like they will keep her at a 4, although they did say she could fluctuate between a 4 and 5
"SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE AT TIMES. "
I guess they don't call it a 5 unless the hurricane stays up there a bit? I mean, won't make updates every hours, minute, (insert fluctuating time period here) saying, "she's a 4, now she's a 5, back to 4, up to 5" over and over, would they?
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Quote:
I don't know if Central Texas may get much out of Emily, maybe some rain but I don't think it would....but anyone else know if Emily is supposed to hit Central Florida or at least bands to hit Central Texas. I think Southern Texas might get hit by Emily...I dont know about Central, it is possible...what does everyone else think?
I'm just going by what happened with two previous big hurricanes - Gilbert and Allen. There were tornadoes etc here. It's pretty difficult for a hurricane to actually hit Austin - we're not on the coast. But Carla in 1961 was still a Cat 1 when she got here.
And the Rio Grande Vallley (Brownsville on up the river, Larado etc) could possibly get the bad side of Emily depending on how far N/S she is on landfall.
I'm not gloom and doomin south and central Texas, just sayin that if Emily makes landfall in Mexico, parts of Texas could be adversely affected
Ditto to what Shana said... also, think about what has done to the Ohio Valley, Atlanta, and other points well inland of the coast.
Of course, it all depends on where she makes landfall, which direction she is moving, how big she is at the time, and any other weather features that may be in place -- but sure, Central Texas could see parts of Emily....
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Allison
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