ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
|
|
HCW -
Saw this earlier http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_strike.html, that put LA/MS in the 5% possibility area. Still really slim, but you never know. Probably not, though...Emily seems to go where she wants to, and there is something to the west that she wants (refried beans?) 
oops - they changed it ... now just up into LA! I swear it was different earlier!!
--------------------
Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
Edited by ohioaninmiss (Sun Jul 17 2005 04:53 AM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
as far as all the discussion over what defines a cat 5 and whether emily would make the cut... the fact that the pressure has thus far bottomed at 929 and not gotten to 920 means nothing really... a storm with a higher pressure can have cat 5 winds, it's just a function of how tight the inner core gradient is. in this case it's very tight, so a slightly higher than traditional pressure is producing near cat 5. the standard for flight level to surface windspeed reduction is 90%. 150kt X .9 =135kt or 155mph. this doesn't always work out and they call it as best they can based on what the dropsondes and recon onboard instruments say... and adjust by how good the satelite presentation is. not a standard formula to it, really... forecaster interpretation comes into play beyond that. all in all they do pretty good, though.
anyhow... expected track mostly unchanged. probably going to get the yucatan higher than i was talking last night, and the mexican mainland perhaps a little south (that left bank under the continental ridge has become more pronounced in the models). on the other hand i can see some weaknesses above the 500mb level (weak upper lows linked from the gulf to yucatan) that may reshuffle the deck. forecast track still looks pretty close to reality, though.
i'm not certain yet, but it looks like 99L is breaking through the upper trough. the convective area from this afternoon looked like the shear had won, and was left behind by the low-level cyclonic kink... but more developed after dark closer to 23/54.. and this is moving wnw. if enough has made it through, the main influence will on this system will change to the ridging off the east coast and the northerly flow west of the upper trough... a less mitigating factor as time progresses. i'd say this thing is up to 50-50 now on spinning up. the models don't have it drawn up right, but the piece that got through ought to be enough. be wary of this thing on the east coast if it starts developing.
SAL more influential behind the 99L system and is squelching subsequent waves, even though their signature is decent. the east atlantic will have more trouble generating a system for now (until the larger august waves start coming off), but these can still fester further to the west. fortunately the globals aren't latching onto anything.
HF 0555z17july
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
The 5 PM EDT Advisory had very low probabilities for Louisiana.
New Iberia, LA 2 (not on the latest Strike Probs list)
Port Arthur, TX 4
Galveston, TX 7
Freeport, TX 8
Port O'Conner, TX 10
Corpur Christi, TX 11
Brownsville, TX 15
These are from the 5 PM EDT Advisory.
THat's probably where they are getting their data for the map.
|
ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
|
|
Thanks HF - I was getting a bit confused. Great explanation!
--------------------
Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
|
FormerSoTexan
Unregistered
|
|
To correct a previous post... Hurricane Allen made landfall NORTH of the US-Mexico border... close Laguna Vista and Port Mansfield, TX. Happened Aug 10 1980.
By the time Allen moved ashore, it's maximum sustained winds were 100kts.
It's greatest impact was in the desolate area of Northern Cameron county and Willacy county.
Allen's path was north of Jamaica ... and north of the Yucatan peninsula.
|
HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
|
|
Any thoughts on what the former director of the Neil Frank said on the 10pm newscast ?
--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I bet he spends a great deal of the next two days at the office...or online. Not to mention a call or two from .
|
ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
|
|
True, Allen came in just barely north of the border. I was confused by the graphics they were using on the local news. Our local newscasters keep mentioning Allen and all the tornados Austin had. I didn't live here then.
Thank you
|
HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
|
|
2 am EDT position...17.7 N... 81.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 943 mb.
--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
|
Allison
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
|
|
Quote:
Any thoughts on what the former director of the Neil Frank said on the 10pm newscast ?
Neil Frank is the only local guy I trust when it comes to hurricanes near Houston.
With that said, I have a lot of confidence in the and how they're tracking storms this year. And their track is pulling more and more to the south, not to the north -- that's good enough for me... (for now) 
Anytime one of these things gets anywhere near the Yucatan, our local mets get all charged up about it... (not so long ago, one met, Frank Billingsley, was even seen drawing an "xtrap"-type line between and Houston while all the models clearly showed moving toward FL/AL...  )
If Neil Frank is still talking about it on Monday, then I'll worry... 
--------------------
Allison
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Okay Recon has departed the storm.
Unless they happen to find something on the way out, like they did yesterday, no more reports until around 800 AM EDT.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Current Weather Conditions:
Owen Roberts Airport, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands
(MWCR) 19-17N 081-21W 3M
Conditions at Jul 17, 2005 - 02:00 AM EDTJul 17, 2005 0600 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 35 MPH (30 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 80 F (27 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob MWCR 170600Z 10030KT 9999 FEW016CB BKN080 27/23 Q1011 NOSIG
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2005 08:13 AM)
|
Domino
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
|
|
Looks like Emily was a cat 5 for a while tonight....just not long enough to be one at the advisory time. Without doing much looking....how many years in a row have we had a cat 5 now (if we could Emily)?
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Emily fell short of the CAT 5 category.
Both in wind speed and pressure.
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005 (edited~danielw)
AT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT. THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF THIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE CATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD. AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z...
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/17. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE DURATION. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...EMILY WILL BE
APPROACHING A MODEST MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK BEFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION RESUMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
bold emphasis added~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2005 09:50 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Checking the 5 AM Strike Probabilities.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT5+shtml/170840.shtml
NHC has added New Iberia, LA., back into the group.
This is probably in response to a model showing a northward trend.
New Iberia, LA had been removed from the 11 PM Strike Probs. last night.
Port Arthur, TX gained 1 point in the 5 AM Probs.
Also noted, again probably due to model trends doing their 6 hour swing, were drops in the Total Probability for:
Galveston, TX -1 point
Freeport, TX -2 points
Port O' Conner, TX -3 points
Corpus Christi, TX -4 points
Brownsville, TX -4points
These reflect the 5 AM Advisory only.
Please refer to Official Advisories and Strike Probabilities. As they change, to some degree, every 6 hours.
If you are In, or Near the 'cone' of certainty.
Please make preparations for a landfalling Tropical Cyclone.
As of the 5 AM Update. The Cone extends from the Corpus Christi area, South to below Tampico, Mexico.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/085921.shtml?3day?large
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2005 10:40 AM)
|
ctulhu
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 1
|
|
I think that if we want to look at a CAT5 we should look at the other side of the world and have a look at the supertyphoon Haitang
http://www.supertyphoon.com/storms/05w.html
|
Sher
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 4
Loc: Cayman Islands
|
|
...and what a good morning it is! Emily stayed way south, further south than forcasted. Highest sustained winds 35MPH experienced around 0300EST. Currently winds around 25 out of the East with light rain.
Electricity stayed on all night. Curfew still in place. Understand waves have come across Pedro Bluff inland 1/2 mile. Waiting for curfew to be lifted before being able to assess.
I have enjoyed reading the forums for about a month now, and look forward to continuing to participate.
Our thoughts are with those folks in Mexico now.
We anticipate business as usual tomorrow--(I have to get all my staff back who we evacuated Friday!)
Cheers
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Quote:
I think that if we want to look at a CAT5 we should look at the other side of the world and have a look at the supertyphoon Haitang
http://www.supertyphoon.com/storms/05w.html
Oh no, it really is still headed for a direct hit on Taiwan!
Have they ever had one before? They have so many tall buildings that are apartment houses and the island is already so crowded that I cannot imagine the effects of a Cat 5 hitting there.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
|
|
Quote:
I think that if we want to look at a CAT5 we should look at the other side of the world and have a look at the supertyphoon Haitang
http://www.supertyphoon.com/storms/05w.html
That is one nasty looking storm! It appears to be somewhat larger than Emily also.
--------------------
Michael
PWS
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Good morning everyone!
Well in a way it is a shame that Emily didn't get stronger because isn't it possible that could have changed the steering patterns a bit, and now it looks with the continued west movement, like a direct hit on Cozumel and Cancun. Last night I wondered about that but was too tired to make one more post. I had flhurricane fatigue.
And I realized why the warnings are going along the top of the peninsula as well - because of all the winds they will get from the N as Emily goes inland, if she lands close to the N tip. Weird to think of N winds as being a problem because they are onshore. Also I see how different the strengths are in the different quadrants, and that the N of the storm is so much stronger than the southern part. So it is really sad to see that the entire N part of the penisula is going to get hammered, especially the beautiful tourist area.
Well the first thing I did was look at the satellite to try to figure out what I could on my own, then read the advisories and discussions. I was surprised to see Emily looking so strong, stronger than I expected to see this morning, and again just so perfectly round. I guess it is "here we go again" because looking so good (except for the outflow to the S), and having warm water, it is possible she might still intensify. Still with all the land to the south and west, how can conditions be quite as good today as they were yesterday.
One thing I was confused about was if an did take place, and it seems that it did, since the eye changed diameter and went eliptical before I went to sleep last night, then why is the resulting new eyewall only 10nm? I don't know very much about this but thought the resulting eyewall would be larger.
The eye doesn't look nearly as good as yesterday so I am assuming that the storm still has some reorg left to do to finish up the cycle? Since pressure started dropping again I assume Emily is reorganizing now and we can expect to see her looking *better* on into the afternoon.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
