MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Depends largely on the longitude. 1 degree at the equator will be a larger distance than 1 degree at the North Pole.
Latitude is the same distance from Equator to pole. Longitude gets smaller from Equator to pole.
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Michael
PWS
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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Was just looking on hurricane city and saw a model run of a new wave. Looks pretty interesting.. .... 
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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As of 1650 hours at bouy 42056....postion 19.87n and 85.06w....Wind 35.0kts....Gust 44.7kts....Wave height 10.5ft....Pressure 29.83 and falling.......Weatherchef
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Did I get those two reversed? I mean, even if I did, I can claim accuracy due to the ellipsoid nature of the Earth, but I'd hate to think that I made such a simple mistake 
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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Well, what does the run indicate?
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
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It has it going toward the Bahamas or around there
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Storm Cooper
User
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I'm pertty certain there have been no new model runs on that wave since yesterday so don't put too much into what you saw.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Conditions at buoy 42056 postion 19.87N AND 85.06W at 1750 GMT......Wind NE....Windspeed 31.1kts.....Gust 36.9 kts.....Wave height 16.1 ft....Pressure 29.78 and falling........Weatherchef
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Quote:
So how many miles in 0.7 lat? I don't think the inner core of strong winds will make it close enough to the buoy to see any readings like the ones of the Dauphin Island buoy last year before hit.
It's about 42 miles. 1º lat = aprx 60 miles. Someone correct me if that's wrong.
OK so Emily's eye will be about 40m S of the buoy when it crosses around 85W, and it will be more than twice that distance away by the time it comes W of the buoy. Based on the most recent supplemental recon it is likely the buoy will only see at most 70kt winds, just over the threshold of hurricane force, so I am guessing you wouldn't expect to see wave heights over 30ft, maybe 35ft, and that only because it is the NE quad.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Does it look like shes moving more north ?
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Mike, I think it was deleted because moving it would've killed much of the rest of the thread.
I saw the article about that in the Orlando newspaper yesterday; it's better suited for the new Predictions forum, IMO. Truth be told, I'm not sure exactly what they are going to try to be getting out of it...real scientists are not going to place their money on a landfall pool for any tropical cyclone; there's simply too much at stake. Thus, it is going to be the semi-pros, the hobbiests, and the general public that tries to make some money off of the market. That will reduce the pools to wild guesses, the forecast, model guidance forecasts, or media outlet forecasts...and I'm not sure what is to be gained there. If it is an attempt to see which forecast performs best, that is already done in a formal basis by the each season. It's not like the stock market, where the goal is money; it is real life, with real lives at stake, and I'm not sure I see how having (essentially) a landfall pool is going to help matters. Perhaps something similar without using money can be adapted to a forecast module to teach students/the general public/others how to better forecast these storms, but this doesn't appear to do that.
Just my two cents, however.
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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Mike, that picture you have on the front page of Emily is terrifyingly beautiful.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Did I get those two reversed? I mean, even if I did, I can claim accuracy due to the ellipsoid nature of the Earth, but I'd hate to think that I made such a simple mistake
Just call it a 90º phase shift. 
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Michael
PWS
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Back home and checking the sat images, Emily is looking a lot *better* (3:15p CDT) on the water vapor loop, even with the small scraggly eye. She certainly is the comeback kid. Looks like she is ready to get her act back together, only she really doesn't have a whole lot of time. But I bet she looks even *better* six hours from how, and the next recon will show a pressure drop.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Conditions at buoy 42056 as of 1950GMT...Wind NE.......Wind speed 44.7 kts.....Gusts 58.3 kts.....Wave height...22 ft.....Pressure 29.61 falling rapidly......Weatherchef
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Looking at the Taipei webcams, the city is getting very gusty winds and torrential rains with the typhoon just offshore Taiwan. It's dark there now but should be light in an hour or so and it'll be very interesting to see the webcams then.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Watch out Texas
There have been some changes in the track model guidance...likely
due to better model analyses of the mid-latitude trough over the
northwestern United States and its subsequent impact on the
southern U.S. Ridge. Large-scale models are now calling for more
of a weakness in the ridge over the western Gulf Coast. This
causes the track guidance to forecast less of a westward turn while
Emily is over the Gulf of Mexico..
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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I don`t want to seem rude , but shouldn`t your last post be in the Other Storm Basins discussions. I thought we where talking about Emily in News Talkbacks.....Weatherchef
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Let'em down gently guys. We still will not know where that Emily is going until she does her thing to the Yucatan. Then the next step will be how big is she and who does she want next.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Just doing a little checking, those were Nautical miles. Using the distance between the Equator and North Pole = 6222 miles (statute) and dividing by 90 (90º latitude between them) yields 69 statute miles per degree of latitude. So, 0.7º would = 48.3 statute miles.
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Michael
PWS
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