MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I have a feeling we'll be dealing with Isidore all next week, still in the gulf. Right now, literally, everyone in the Gulf from the Yucatan in Mexico to the tip of Florida Peninsula will want to eyeball this storm.
I'm leaning toward the west right now, heading dangerously close to the Yucatan. I don't expect it to make landfall however, and I could even see the system remaining in the gulf the entirety of next week. This will put emergency managers all along the coast on edge for days, and that fact itself makes it bad. Every hint of movement now must be watched. Even some of the best forecasters aren't very confident on the future path of this system. And the 's best guess I happen to agree with. Models and even their trends haven't been all that helpful either.
All I can say is watch it right now. Models aren't any help. Just keep watch on the system itself.
I'm back, at work, and buried in work related work, so this update will be short.
Jim Williams and Barometer bob are doing live Audio shows starting at 8PM and lasting usually to 10 or 11PM all during Isidore's run. Use the link below to check them out.
Updates will come as needed here. It will take a while for me just to catch up with everyone!
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
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Kimmie at work
Unregistered
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Hey, where did everybody go?
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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As things are looking now we may have Isidore for some days ahead but in the meantime 2 new candidates for developent are now in the spotlight.
The low pressure se of Bermuda is more organized but apparently it will be a subtropical one and a fish.
Of more concern to the islands is a tropical wave east of the windwards that looks like the conditions are better for slow organization of it. AVN likes it but If anyone knows of other models that are picking up this wave please share that info because it is important to me as I live in Puerto Rico.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I'm still hanging. I'm guessing everyone is getting HIGHLY IRRITATED that half the web is crashed right now. NOAA loops (down); Goes 8 (unresponsive); National Data Buoy Center (slow as molasses). You can't get anything right now. As to the ULL having the effect of pulling the storm northward as some suggested in the previous thread, watch Joe B's tropical update and he'll explain why that isn't likely to happen. 6z runs it Iz towards LA/MS, still giving it that loop near onto the northern end of the YP. It's changed its shorts more time than an old lady with diarhea.
Anyway, those medium range composite models that Jason posted look fairly legitimate to me. It's one of those cases where it doesn't matter how something gets there as long as it gets there. I think a NW FL landfall is pretty reasonable considering the circumstances and season, but will that be in 3 days, 5 days, 7 days or 10 days? I can't say. However, if you look at the Long Range composites of the same models, they do "other stuff" with Izzy. You can go back and play with it should you so choose.
I gotta admit that I'm getting tired of sleeping 5 hours a night.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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can someone with an expert opinion look at the longrange Key West radar that was posted in the previous discussion on page 2. It appears that the center is moving north. Obviously most of the tools have crashed on this sight for now. I just want a second opionion.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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that upper low developing east of florida is about as robust as the avn forecasted it to be so far, as the discussion says.. but there is enough of the old upper low to the west of izzy to hold it between the two for now. for now. now the question is, which lets go first. avn upper low maxes out by 48hr and is deteriorating into a trough.. note that avn also develops a system (probably fake) over the bahamas and sends it north next week. in the meanwhile it has also had the upper system over the BOC let go of izzy as well.. izzy is actually sort of moving wsw in tandem with it. that i dont buy. basically i think the small upper low to the west keeps enough push on isidore so that the storm slowly trudges wnw.. maybe stopping to bob around and loop, maybe even doing the cyclonic loop and have envisioned at times. by then the upper low to the east has decayed and isidore is basically just going to wait until a shortwave grabs hold. there are two that i think can do it.. the one that is going by obviously didnt get the storm.. but another is down tapping isidore by sunday.. this would bring the storm up for a tue/wed strike. i think that isidore will at least respond weakly to this shortwave. next one comes down thursday or so.. more energetic. even on the avn runs, with isidore down in the boc, the storm responds to this shortwave. i dont see this one not turning isidore up for a fri-sun next week strike, if the sun/mon one doesnt. so basically.. thats what ive got. goofy erratic motion prior to recurvature.. but still leaning on recurvature and not the mexican solution.
going to leave my strike zone on the panhandle, but extend it a little west as far as biloxi. think that florida below cedar key really is in the clear. fairly certain.
interesting that if isidore hadnt first tried running south america we would be dealing with a landfaller in florida around now. what a difference that made.
i'll take a moment to address the other atlantic features:
bastardi's little coast runner isnt what the avn wants to make down near cuba.. more likely is going to evolve west of the bahamas this weekend and be near hatteras monday. it will be a weak or formative system, nothing too impressive.
probably going to have kyle wandering east of bermuda before the weekend is out, as well. 91L looks fairly healthy.
i was probably too harsh on the wave near 40-45w. there is ridging building ahead, still fairly weak.. and it is fairly close to the . this could be an invest in a couple of days... maybe something for cycloneye to ooh and ahh about. this might have its ridging build westward with it to a point.
wonder how far down the name list we'll be by the beginning of october? about two weeks ago, remember bastardi mentioning how the ridging in the east should be broken around the middle of october.. and was thinking some kind of caribbean system could threaten around that possible time of extremes.. since he usually starts on things a couple weeks before they happen.. maybe i'll get to read about it before his site becomes pay.
HF 1737z20september
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Brett
Unregistered
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LOL Steve, get some sleep. It is going to be a very long time with this one, and he isn't gonna make a sharp turn anytime soon, I don't think.
I do not remember ever a storm that was predicted to be out there for that long....and I certainly cannot say I can trust a model that puts it ashore somewhere in 240 hours. LOL its ludicrous, 240 hours! We just need to keep checking in every now and then, until it stalls...then the real watching begins.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Agree with expected recure that HF mentioned but I'am still sticking with landfall possibily in big bend region. Trough currently in western gulf and extending north looks impressive still. ULL looks to be holding trough back a bit. But in any case I do believe this will begin to move possibly after it does a loop in southern gulf. In any case I am sticking close to .
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Brett
Unregistered
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BTW, the Key West long range is really impressive....this storm is extremely large, pulling in moisture and circulating some showers as far as Orlando, with its airflow. Weather is beautiful in Miami right now, just a light breeze, and some fast-moving low clouds. Seems to me the eye is still has a western component, but it indeed may be a little more N now than earlier.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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sorry bret,alittle overhyped, Orlando isnt getting the winds from the circulation or Isadore, its from other factors. The outskirts of the circulation get as far up as just s of Marco Island but that is also not directly associated with the Hurricane.
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Anonymous
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I agree, it looks like it hit land and either stopped or is turning north.
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Anonymous
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Looks like Izza has chosen the path of least resistance and is crossing Cuba at its narrowest point. At his current rate of speed and direction, he should take only 1 hr to cross the island.
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Anonymous
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Better hope he doesn't have any cuban coffee..could intensify fast and make it across in 45 minutes  bobbi
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The 12Z Canadian has broken from its 3 man tag team and joined the other models. The Canadian actually takes Iz into the BOC (ala European Model). I have to wonder if the models aren't really compensatnig over the energy that is down there with the cold front.
But still, Isidore is finding her way toward the Yucata no matter what we, , or anyone else speculates. Current update at 1PM CDT has her moving back due WNW (2/1) again. Funny things these storms.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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03 GMT 09/20/02 21.0N 82.5W
09 GMT 09/20/02 21.3N 83.3W
15 GMT 09/20/02 21.7N 83.9W
Now: 21.8 N 84.1 W
So since 11pm last night, we've got 8/10 of a degree north, 1.6 degrees west. That's 2/1 or directly WNW. However, the eye nudged a bit west after making landfall and remains a wobbler between half way between W and WNW and due NW.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Right now Izzy is enjoying great inflow from deep in the Carrib. Will Cuba block this inflow after the cross. He has a huge influence over the Carrib. All of the Carrib from just west of PR to Central America is covered. Wow..... Does he seem to be expanding to you guys?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Look at this pic of the Tropics at 1745z...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=atlantic/tropics&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20020920.1745.goes-8.ir.x.trop.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
At this trend, seems we will be way down in the name list by mid-October. Cycloneye, your wave at around 40W is looking healthier with time.
cc
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Take a look!
http://www.met.inf.cu/radar.asp
IHS,
Bill
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Again, good asssessment Hank. Though I wouldn't say all clear for anybody, including central Florida. Yes the Canadian threw in the towel and has the storm in the western GOM/BOC. Maybe Shawn will get some wind!! But I fell tht it may be the trough later next week that gets him. If this is the case, then it may be a strong won that pushes him NE or even ENE depending on where he is. If he's at 23N north of the Yucatan, he could still strike central Florida. This is based on the presumption that Izzy is still in the GOM south of 25N and hasn't run to the west or north central GOM states. Other than that it's anyone's guess. If the strong next week (thurs) cold front gets him he'll drive ENE. If it's the Tuesday one, Panhandle. If it's no one, SHawn. Cheers!! Steve H.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW LANDFALL ABOUT 230PM EASTERN ABOUT 50 MILES E OF THE W TIP OF CUBA. THOUGH MOVING AT 8MPH SOME SLOWING AND A NW TURN AS IT CROSSES CUBA WILL TAKE SHAPE AS THE UPPER LOW TO ITS WNW IN THE C GULF STARTS AGAIN TO HAVE SOME AFFECT. CURRENTLY VERY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CUBA WITH CURRENT AMOUNTS NEARING A FOOT IN SW LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE MASSIVE FLOODING ALMOST TO THE AFFECT OF MITCH IN HODURAS WITH THIS HURRICANE AS IT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS STARTING LATE TONIGHT.TOTAL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY IN SW CUBA COULD REACH 3 FEET.
CURRENTLY NOTHING HAS CHANGED FROM MY PREVIOUS FORCAST BUT THE CHANCE OF MY 2ND TROUGH CATCHING ISADORE LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK HAS GONE DOWN SLIGHTLY. MY GENERAL THINKING WAS ISADORE WOULD MOVE NW INTO THE SE GULF JUST NW OF CUBA AND STALL OR MOVE ERRATICLY SAT INTO SUNDAY THEN MISS THE 2ND TROUGH (MAYBE) THEN WITH SUCH A LOW PRESSURE OF NEAR 938 MOVE W AND WSW AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE YUCITAN THEN W THEN WNW INTO THE TAMPICO AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. I SAID THOUGH THAT THE 1ST TROUGH WILL MISS ISADORE BUT THEN 2ND WILL COME DOWN AND ALSO COULD WITH A SMALLER CHANCE, PICK UP ISADORE LIKE THE LBAR,NOGAPS,AND GGEM FORCASTS AND MOVE HIM NNE INTO TAMPA - PANHANDLE.
THAT WAS YESTERDAYS AND IM ALITTLE MORE PUZZLED BY THE 2ND TROUGH. LATEST RUN BY THE GEMM NOW ALSO SHIFTS GREATLY W TO NEAR MY TAMPICO LANDFALL AND SO ARE THE MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS. THIS SHOWS THAT THE 2ND TROUGH MIGHT NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT THOUGH IT WILL BE REAL STRONG. WITH THAT ASSUMPTION THIS ISADORE MOST BE FORCASTED TO BE REALLY STRONG. AVN CONTINUES SW AND NOW FORCASTS NEAR TAMPICO AND DOES THE UKMET AND MOST TROPICAL SUITES.NOGAPS PUSHES THIS ALITTLE MORE W NOW BUT STALLS IT FOR A DAY JUST N OF THE YUCITAN THEN BEGINS THE N AND NNE NOVE AGAIN. (WHICH ALWAYS CHANGES DIRECTION OF A SYSTEM MOST OFTEN) STILL TURNS ISADORE IN A LOOP THEN BACK TO THE N ALONG THE LINES OF THE . BUT THIS HAS BEEN A W TREND OF THIS. FIRST LOOP THEN NE GULF, THEN MOBILE , NOW TOWARDS NEW ORLEANS. DONT TAKE WHAT THE SAYS SO THIS MODEL I WILL JUST THOUGH OUT AS AFTER 48 HOURS OUT IT IS USLESS.
ALL IN ALL THE 2ND TROUGH COMING DOWN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PICK UP A TS OR WEAK HURRICANE, BUT ITS FORCASTED TO BE SO STRONG IT WONT. I WILL KEEP MY LONG RANGE FORCAST THE SAME AS I DONT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING HAPPENING UNLESS SOMEHOW IT STAYS UNDER A CAT 3 AND THE TROUGH CONTINUES ALITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. PEOPLE SHOULD WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT AS FAR AS MAKING LANDFALL THERE WILL BE NONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE 2ND TROUGH MISSES THIS SYSTEM AND IT CURLS W OF THE YUCITAN BY MONDAY EVENING THEN W IT WILL CONTINUE. THATS IT FOR NOW, SCOTTSVB
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