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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Surprise! a 5 hour night...
      #4558 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:13 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

You can see what basically to me, looks like the transition from Cat 2 to Cat 3. Winds might not be up there yet, but check out the organization of the eye wall. Man, I'd be pretty nervous if I was in Cancun.

After the wife gets home from work in a bit, we're going ot measure a couple of windows and then I' going buy some more water and ice to get that out of the way just in case.

As speculated by many people the last few days, Izzy may well have a very large sphere of influence at landfall (if) along the Gulf at landfall - whereever it is. Wow. It's the big one (one of 'em anyway).

Of note, GFDL rather weakens the storm a down the line. That's worth mentioning as it always overdoes projected intensity.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4559 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:16 AM

Hey Kevin,
I'm thinking if it get that far East, than around the Big Bend area. maybe farther down the coast. I guess landfall willl depend where he is at, when he makes his turn. Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Surprise! a 5 hour night...
      #4560 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:23 AM

Yo Steve..... 5 hours is starting to look good right now...

Izzy very impressive on the IR and Vis .... however I don't see how he can get much stronger than he is right now if he continues to head towards the YP and half his circulation were to remain over land during the wsw track...

Models are getting ridiculus.... maybe he is going to take that projected loop that was forecast 36 hours ago... I doubt it

from what I could detect from the latest loops he looks to be heading wsw but maybe at a little slower pace....

all i really know is that I'm tired......



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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Surprise! a 5 hour night...
      #4561 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:24 AM

Now is the time to prepare. Isidore is giving everone in the Gulf time to do that. We should continue to take the threat very serious. I have been working 12 hour days and then it takes me a while to get caught up on all the post that has been written during the day. There are some nights I have only gotten 3-4 hrs. of sleep. I guess I should stop that just in case I really need them down the road. Toni

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4562 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:24 AM

As someone who moved from SE Florida to SE Wisconsin at the start of this season, all I can say is that tornadoes scare the bejeezus out of me more than canes ever did! Although the damage is geographically smaller in scope, they are far more numerous and what little warning you get is barely enough to get yourself, Toto and Aunty Em to the storm cellar while the house gets turned into splinters.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not downplaying the destructive force of canes. I'm just saying that as a matter of personal preference, I believe the odds of my survival were better when facing a Cat3 than a T3. Preparation time is one key, but long term preparedness is also necessary. As a witness and a rebuilder of the destruction of Andrew, I felt like I knew what to do to increase the survivability of my home both in the storm and in the aftermath. I have no such confidence when faced with the thought of a tornado.

To Derek and others from Indiana, glad nobody was killed and good luck with the rebuilding.

Rick

PS...nice to be back on these boards




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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey Derek...
      #4563 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:35 AM

Glad all is well with your family. Thanks for the link to the star. The photo gallery tells it all. 2 blocks is way too close for comfort.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4564 - Sat Sep 21 2002 09:46 AM

Hey Rick, I agree with you totally.... from a personal safety point I would much rather face a Cat 3 hurricane than a F3 tornado... any time...

At least with a Cat 3 you do have choices, you can leave, you can prepare, you can take measures to protect your property..... with a F3 you have little if any warning....

I've been though many hurricanes over the years and they are just a way of life along the coast... but I have never experienced a tornado... and never want to either....

one of the big concerns that I have about a major hurricane is that all the coast areas of gulf have grown significantly since the last major... I know along the MS coast we have thousands of new residents that are clueless about what a hurricane is all about... not to mention the tremedous building development that occur in MS as the result of the gaming industry... If we were to get a Cat 4 storm it would have a devistating effect and I would expect to see most of the Casinos, which are on the south side of HWY 90, to be relocated over to the north side....


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4565 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:13 AM

Good morning to everyone.
Derek, saw some video on what happened to your area this morning. We are all glad you and your family are OK, and I don't think I could express any better how we feel than the previous posters already have.
As I.ve been trying to wake up this morning, the first impression that hit me was this:sitting up here in NFLA it sure does look like I could be looking at the chance, still a slim one hopefully, that Izzy would be closing in from the SW and Lili would be coming at me from the SE, say from Wed. evening on till next weekend. If Izzy is going to rotate around the high and move north, would not Lili rotate around the same high and not just run to the open Atantic? Thought I throw that out there, the timing, among a zillion other things, would all have to mesh together for that to happen.
Joe in Jax
Hey Gators, it's today or never......


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OrlandoDude
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
Loc: Orlando, Florida, USA
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4566 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:17 AM

Orlando Sentinel three days ago had a headline that says Izzy no threat to Florida.. I thought that was too early also. But maybe they kidnapped the real NHC Staff and placed clones in their place.

--------------------
Orlando Dude
SW Orange Country, Florida
"We don't need anymore people moving here.. thanks"


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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4567 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:19 AM

I live on the water just north of Clearwater, FL. I believe the St. Petersburg times made that headline to reassure the tourist dollars keep coming in. The local media are not that confident. "Most" people here are not ignorant when it comes to the potential threat of a hurricane coming their way. For example. while shopping at a local grocery store yesterday, I noticed that all the D size batteries were entirely sold out. In addition, the water inventories were starting to get low. Until someone states that the eye of the storm is over their head, we all need to pay close attention and who knows with this storm, that may not be conclusive... Izzy seems to have been around along time. Anyone have any statistical information on the longest lasting hurricane?

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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4568 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:45 AM

I don't get embarrassed by asking "dumb" questions, so here it goes....

Was looking at this link:

http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002092106-twelve12l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Then read this:
Subtropical Storm Kyle is drifting north, but is eventually expected to turn southwest while becoming a tropical system, then a hurricane in 72 hours. It is far from any land over the open Atlantic. Two tropical low-pressure areas could become tropical depressions soon.

WHAT IF: Izzy hangs around in the GOM for a while; Kyle crosses FL into the GOM; the cold front dips deep enough into the GOM all at the same time? Then we could also consider the possibility of another TS moving in on the action. Any thoughts on what we would call this situation and what the conditions might be like?


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Media=Nuts
      #4569 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:51 AM

St. Petersburg Times is crazy! Isidore is no threat to Florida? I think he is a very great threat. That's the typical one-sided media. They say storms can't change direction. If it's headed west now, it will stay in that direction. Wonder what SPT will have to say when the deep trough approaches the northern GOMEX Tuesday or Wednesday and turns Isidore NE towards the Panhandle or Big Bend.

Also, Isidore seems to be getting larger. The SE side of the storm is huge. If hit the Panhandle, Central Florida would feel effects from him!

Kevin


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4570 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:53 AM

Well, its not a dumb question, but it is so remote that I cannot imagine a synoptic situation that would have to occur for that to happen, so I really can't make a guess as to how it would play out.

Also, Hurricane Ginger in the N Atlantic is the longest in that basin...28 days in 1971...the longest worldwide was Hurricane/Typhoon John in 1994, which lasted 31 days...It formed in the Northeast Pacific, reached hurricane force there, moved across the dateline and was renamed Typhoon John, and then finally recurved back across the dateline and renamed Hurricane John again.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Sat Sep 21 2002 10:56 AM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
MAJOR CANE
      #4571 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:54 AM

WINDS AT 115 MPH!!!!!!!

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4572 - Sat Sep 21 2002 10:55 AM

Florida would post a sign at the AL/GA border that said "Closed: Gone Fishing. Bact in October"
Kyle doesn't bother me as much as the wave soon to be known as Lili, even though I guess both could get caught under a high to the north.


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: MAJOR CANE
      #4573 - Sat Sep 21 2002 11:02 AM

Noticed also that this is as far south as they think it's going to get in their forecast. No loop?

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Rick
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Wisconsin
Re: My own personal cat 5
      #4574 - Sat Sep 21 2002 11:10 AM

It always comes down to experience. The coastal growth will continue and the influx of the "uninitiated" will too.

I can only speak from my experience in SoFla, but I remember before Andrew that the emergency managers were always concerned about complacency. Well, that was all changed in a "trial by fire" way. Stricter building codes and higher insurance costs are a way of life now. 120mph wind-loading design and storm shutters are code enforced. More people are having their "hurricane parties" at Home Depot than at the liquor store!

How does this help MS? ...and LA and AL? I guess that depends on how willing the building offiials are to go against the developers and drive up costs. And what kind of pressure is/was exerted by the insurance industry. It never seems to be the popular mandate until the feces has already hit the forced ventilation machine!

I guess nothing motivates more than money and nightmares!

Rick


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: MAJOR CANE
      #4576 - Sat Sep 21 2002 11:15 AM

The thing with newspapers and radio stations is that they will just look at the forecast, see no mention of Florida and give an all clear. I think what is proper is like what WFTV in Orlando had last night. They had the NHC Director on saying the "Floridians should be able to relax, have a good weekend and check back at the end of the weekend to see what is going on" That sounded very reasonable. It is all relative to how you are looking. I would say Florida is safe for, probably, the next 72 hours. I'll keep checking. Just not as often as when it was a closer threat.

--------------------
Jim


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: MAJOR CANE (MAJOR problems)
      #4577 - Sat Sep 21 2002 11:16 AM

Notice at the 72 hour point...they forecast sustained winds at 125 knots (145 MPh) and gusts to 150 knots (170-175 MPh!!). Notice the wind radius as well...34 knot winds are supposed to extend out to a huge extent in 72 hours. All I can say is...if you live in the northern or eastern GOMEX, at the FIRST hint that this storm will turn N and/or NE, make your preperations! It is not out of the question this storm could be as strong as Mitch was at one point...except it could be headed towards the US! I don't mean to scare anybody, but by the middle to the end of this week we may well have catastrophe on our hands.

I also don't think Isidore will get quite as far west as NHC is forecasting. I'm pretty sure they're uncertain about the 72 hour position.

Kevin


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Izzy headed south of due west?
      #4578 - Sat Sep 21 2002 11:18 AM

thats wrong kim,,sorry i live in tampa. No one here thinks a huricane will hit. Last year when joe canteri from TWC came she interviewed people on clearwater beach and they had no worries about Gabrielle and was quite amazed he told the listeners. He said since W C Florida hasnt had a landfall come close in a long time, no one cares. We watch, but we know it wont come this way. And yes unless its only 100 miles out, then there will be a mad panic to get to the stores. We just wont get hit.

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