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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 18 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3193 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
12.9N 49.6W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
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W at 18 mph
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Reaper
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Lake Placid, Fla 27.34N 81.34W
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44748 - Fri Jul 22 2005 03:16 PM

Looks as if Franklin is trying to form an eye in the last few frames web page

It's just another convective artifact, much like yesterday's feature. Shadows from the sun passing by might be enhancing the visual effect somewhat. The storm's too weak -- per recon reports all day -- for an eye to be getting going. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Fri Jul 22 2005 03:30 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44749 - Fri Jul 22 2005 03:26 PM

Quote:

I am interested in the wave in the Caribbean. If something develops in the Gulf what areas of the Texas coast might be affected?




Hey, Beaumont...

I posted this link the other day...don't know if you saw it, but you may wish to bookmark it...

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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00cj
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 26
Loc: Panama City Beach, F.L.
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: LI Phil]
      #44750 - Fri Jul 22 2005 03:45 PM

Is it possible that the Carribean disturbance could become named a depression over the yucatan penninsula?...I know Opal in 95 first became a dpression over it.. I was wondering if that was rare or what?...just curious.

edit: Opal was practically over it.....really close.

Edited by 00cj (Fri Jul 22 2005 03:49 PM)


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dizzy58
Unregistered




Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Clark]
      #44751 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:03 PM

What is the probability that Franklin will turn west? I can't remember which hurricane it was that did a 360 (started out east than looped back to the west). Is this a possibility for Frankilin? Also, what would cause a hurricane to make that drastic of a change in direction?

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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: dizzy58]
      #44752 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:05 PM

Dizzy

That was Frances last year :?:


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Neuspeed
Unregistered




Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: dizzy58]
      #44753 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:06 PM

Thats a 180 not a 360 :?:

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Warrior
Unregistered




Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Neuspeed]
      #44754 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:08 PM

What is the possibility of this thing hitting Miami?

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dizzy58
Unregistered




Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Neuspeed]
      #44755 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:12 PM

If you look at Frances' plotted path, she did a 360, if I'm not mistaken. But I understand a change in direction would be a 180. Thanks for the clarification.

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Neuspeed
Unregistered




Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: dizzy58]
      #44756 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:13 PM

No problem...just trying to avoid confusions...im already confused as it is...

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Todd
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 30
Loc: Havelock, NC(34.89n76.92w)
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: dizzy58]
      #44757 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:15 PM

Try Dennis 1999 if you want to get dizzy

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: dizzy58]
      #44758 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:15 PM

The storm that made a loop last year was Jeanne, as has been mentioned countless times in the past 24 hours.

As for the forecast, on visible satellite you can see both a northerly component in Franklin, as well as a trough currently diving across the Carolinas and Georgia. If these meet, Franklin will be quickly swept off to sea. If Franklin doesn't make it far enough north, the ridge is likely to reassert itself, leading to the anticyclonic loop scenario.

(I'm only repeating this speculation, as it too has been discussed numerous times already in this thread)

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 115
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: dizzy58]
      #44759 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

What is the probability that Franklin will turn west? I can't remember which hurricane it was that did a 360 (started out east than looped back to the west). Is this a possibility for Frankilin? Also, what would cause a hurricane to make that drastic of a change in direction?




That was Hurricane Erin. She got off the coast of W Fla did a 180 and came into Ms.


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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 61
Loc: apopka 28.67N 81.48W
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Wingman51]
      #44760 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:18 PM

Not Frances, it was Jeanne

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004jeanne.shtml?


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #44761 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:20 PM

Fred...that was Emily....Erin hit Pcola in 95

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: pcola]
      #44762 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:21 PM

no..sorry, not Emily...Elena...1985

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Jul 22 2005 04:25 PM)


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: leetdan]
      #44763 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:28 PM

Quote:

The storm that made a loop last year was Jeanne, as has been mentioned countless times in the past 24 hours.

As for the forecast, on visible satellite you can see both a northerly component in Franklin, as well as a trough currently diving across the Carolinas and Georgia. If these meet, Franklin will be quickly swept off to sea. If Franklin doesn't make it far enough north, the ridge is likely to reassert itself, leading to the anticyclonic loop scenario.

(I'm only repeating this speculation, as it too has been discussed numerous times already in this thread)




Can you send me a link where you can see the trough by GA? If there is one.

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #44764 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:43 PM

I was referring to The Atlantic Visible loop on http://www.wunderground.com/tropical but I don't know if that's present for non-subscribers. It is however visible in the first few frames of the RAMSDIS linked on page 1 of this thread.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: leetdan]
      #44765 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:45 PM

This is an interesting loop. Is the gulf system interfering with Franklin again?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: emackl]
      #44766 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:47 PM

looks like it is being pushed to the east

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #44767 - Fri Jul 22 2005 04:50 PM




Can you send me a link where you can see the trough by GA? If there is one.




http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/surf/images/tanal.1.gif]Big Trough Image

Removed Table Breaker Image - MikeC

Edited by MikeC (Fri Jul 22 2005 08:14 PM)


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