MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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5:30AM Update
Franklin is still ragged this morning, but the future track is now looking more clear.
Franklin is most likely to move out to sea during the next few days, which, thankfully, will keep us clear for the weekend. It still will need to be watched until the movement is set, but the out to sea scenario is now the most likely.
Site note:
We had a database hiccup last night and had to restore to an earlier date from posts (From this monday)
I'm trying to recover other posts that were made during the week, and they may show up later.
8PM Update
Franklin's first official Advisory is out, with 45MPH winds. Forecast track hasn't changed, but it has been recentered a little.
More will come as things are learned.
Also, there is a wave off of Africa that also will need watching next week.
7PM Update
Recon has found higher winds in what was TD#6 and the National Hurricane Center has sent out a special message indicating that Tropical Depression Six is now Tropical Storm Franklin.
This is a new record, before now, there has never been 6 named systems before August. On average, a year doesn't get to the "E" named storm until September 16th or 17th. And this month there has been a trackable storm in the Atlantic, every day, except for July 1st.
An update will occur at 8PM to reflect TD#6's upgrade to Tropical Storm Franklin.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Six has formed east of the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for portions of the bahamas. Loopy in this case is the forecast track.
The current forecast has it going much of nowhere over the next few days, making a loop in the atlantic. Because of lessening shear and warm waters, it is likely to become a hurricane sometime over the next few days.
In fact, the National Hurricane Center suggests the depression may be Tropical Storm Franklin very soon.
Because of the nature of slow moving storms, especially one positioned perilously close to Florida, I'm sure we'll all be watching this over the next few days. Folks especially along the Florida East coast will want to watch this one like a flock of hawks.
Hopefully tomorrow we'll know more about the eventual path of the system, but for now, beyond the next few days your guess is as good as mine. Watch the advisories and movement persistance. Many models carry this out to sea as well.
The degree of uncertainty with this system is high, so watch for official statements and changes from the National Hurricane Center. Some models suggest it could be nearing East Central Florida in 48 hours, but others keep it offshore. Most of the east central Florida coast is in the cone (or ellipse as it looks like now).
The other system in the Southwestern Caribbean may cause neither system to get too strong over the next few days, but that's another wildcard, as it too may become a depression tomorrow. This may in fact, keep strengthening of Franklin in check, and lower, unless Franklin manages to move further north. Franklin could potentially shear apart because of the system in the Southwestern Caribbean. It will be an interesting battle.
And yes, I just checked, my calendar still says July.
More to come as we learn more about the system.
Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
<i>Tropical Storm Franklin</i>
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Google Map of Franklin plotted along side Jeanne from Last Year
Google Map of Franklin And Erin (1995)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I am going to go on record now and say that until Franklin passes 70W heading northeast, I think there is a chance that he loops around and comes back. Could be as late as next weekend. I am not buying that Franklin will be picked up and sent out to seas quite as quickly as is saying. I still give it a 50/50 shot that Franklin loops back sometime in the next week.
How is that for going out on a limb and commiting to nothing? 
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Jim
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON is currently in the air.
They are scheduled for a center? fix around 1200Z-8 AM EDT.
I'm not sure what they will find as Franklin's satellite signature is rather poor.
RECON is also tasked with a Low Level Investigation in the NW Caribbean this afternoon. That is based on yesterday's tasking and today's Caribbean System appearance.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Now, if the storm performs the way that the current track looks on the side page, will that draw that larger looking invest in the caribbean over Florida into the atlantic or will the invest still head west, or is it too early to guess?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Yeah, Rasvar, I agree. With generally weak steering currents, I think Franklin may get nudged to the NNE, but the ridge will build back over him, stall him again, and may bring westward again. He may be more formidable then. I'm not buying the out to sea solution YET. The models are not feeling this situation out very well at present. The ridge won't magically disappear or fail to materialize and the timeframe 72-120 hours will have the ridge set up over top of him. Let's see what shakes out today. Cheers!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Can someone tell me how to find the center?
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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Based on sat pic's... why is Franklin getting more attention than the obvious disturbance off of Mexico?
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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"FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER."
We'll see if it keeps it's NW track for most of today.
Franklin is only 350 miles (or less) away from Orlando, If it keeps it's NW track it will be a 108 miles closer by 8pm tonight
just a thought.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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2 reasons. 1. Its closer to US territory. 2. Its close to the Governors heart. 3. Its closer to the Miami Hurricane Center. 3. It not predicted to go to Mexico -yet.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Franklin is showing up nicely on Melbourne long range radar this morning. A few rotating storms are just offshore of the Ft. Pierce/West Palm Beach area.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
2 reasons. 1. Its closer to US territory. 2. Its close to the Governors heart. 3. Its closer to the Miami Hurricane Center. 3. It not predicted to go to Mexico -yet.
um...that's 3 reasons
while i do NOT wish to compare Franklin to Jeanne, there is one distinct similarity: no one knows for certain where he is headed or how strong he may become...location of the bermuda high, atlantic ridging, forward motion, etc. all are factors for future development and without an obvious trof to come down and scoop Franklin up and take him to fishland, it's more of a wait-and-see game right now...
we should have a better handle on this when the hunters arrive and it wouldn't surprise me to have "Gert" before too long either...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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Actually... it's 4 
correct-a-mundo...i didn't see she posted "3" twice!
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jul 22 2005 08:34 AM)
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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One more named storm and we`re all the way to G and its still July. Maybe we`ll go through all the letters this season seeing that the tropical records are falling like the snow in Buffalo around Janurary. Just for the heck of it, whats the farthest we`ve gone when it comes to name storms in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico in one given hurricane season historically speaking. The way things are going, I think its a distinct possibility that we either tie the record or break it this year.......Time will tell.........Another note, the shuttle is still on the pad for a possible Tuesday launch. Thats a good sign for central Florida.....Weatherchef
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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
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.... and what would the nomenclature be if we did ? (use them all)
I think nomenclature is the wrong word!
nomenclature works.. it means name or pertaining to naming. the plan if we use all 21 normal names to go to a greek alphabet.. alpha beta gamma delta... etc. there are still 15 names to go; at least we ought to be close around october. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 22 2005 10:35 AM)
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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All the models point Franklin out to sea with the exception of the BAM medium. This model's solution has Franklin stalling and nudged into Florida by the trough that's coming down the east coast.
I guess we will wait for the 11AM update.
But I do know Sahara dust will rain on Florida this Monday- enough to leave a red film on vehicles and possibly have air quality advisories issued for all people with respiratory problems to stay indoors.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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i'm not absolutely certain, but I believe it has gotten as far as "W" in a previous year.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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TSHwonder
Unregistered
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we will probley be at h by the time july over with the sw carribean being gert and the eastern atlantic being harvey
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WwHhAaTt
Unregistered
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Quote:
we will probley be at h by the time july over with the sw carribean being gert and the eastern atlantic being harvey
By the way does any got anything on the eastern atlantic tropical wave
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yecatsjg
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 26
Loc: Bradenton, FL
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I have family driving here from Illinois this weekend.....how much wishcasting does it take to get all those models to send Franklin out to sea, lol?!? I'm crossing my fingers he stays on his projected path....
Stacey
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