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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Floridacane
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Unregistered User]
      #44661 - Fri Jul 22 2005 10:29 AM

If I am wrong, someone please correct me. But the reasoning I believe Goes 1 is still showing post-Emily is because it is still a major rain event over the mountains, with mudslides and major flooding.

--------------------
What's brewin' everyone?
Lori


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Floridacane]
      #44663 - Fri Jul 22 2005 10:46 AM

11:00 is out

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 22, 2005
...Franklin drifting erratically northwestward near abaco islands...

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
on the record [Re: Floridacane]
      #44664 - Fri Jul 22 2005 10:46 AM

a couple days ago i was saying that if franklin formed, it would probably recurve... this based on globals that always recurve stuff early, but also with knowledge of that shortwave going by early saturday.
after reassessing the future position of the ridge and seeing how much that shortwave seems to have to it.. i'm going to put stock in the bastardi/accuwx idea that it misses the connection and meanders back to the coast next week. joe b put it well this morning; to paraphrase: if i'm wrong it goes out to sea, if i'm right it comes back.
pretty cut and dry that those are the two options.
the wave with the ridging above in the nw caribbean is probably going to start developing in the gulf tomorrow. i don't think it'll get much going before the yucatan.. but it'll probably spin up in the gulf and head for the same general area emily hit. the trajectory will be more to the north, so even if it goes into mexico a bunch of rain is coming up into texas. even if this thing fails to develop it's a rain event for lone star country.
wave near 30w still very prominent and will be moving into an upstream building ridge as an upper trough digs and retrogrades ahead of it. wave is significant in that not only does it have an energetic profile and support environment ahead, but it's the leading edge of a moisture plume off africa, pushing the dry saharan air out ahead of it. subsequent waves have a much friendlier environment thanks to this trick.
HF 1546z22july


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Floridacane]
      #44665 - Fri Jul 22 2005 10:47 AM

New Adv in:

Winds up to 50 mph, heading NNW at 2 MPH.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #44666 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:03 AM

11 am discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200506.disc.html

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
11 a.m. Discussion [Re: NewWatcher]
      #44667 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:14 AM

Great discussion as usual from Stewart. Lots of reasoning why Florida should still pay close attention. Many models bring it back W, WSW, or SW in to Florida. Also, it seems it is stronger than they are actually classifying it right now. As I noted a little while ago, Melbourne radar shows very little motion at all. I think many people have counted on this going out to sea, and this is certainly not a done deal.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: NewWatcher]
      #44668 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:17 AM

Bottom line after reading the discussion, they're not as confident for Frankie as the previous two... could recurve, or could turn west affecting Florida... if it turns west, it could very well become a cane... sat presentation getting better also..

per NHC at 11:00 am
""IF FRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.""


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #44670 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:19 AM

Yeah, from what I could discern on Melb radar I saw very little motion, if any...

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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Frank P]
      #44672 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:25 AM

hi can anyone tell me what was so significant about 1954 as far as the hurricanes go?,,,thanks

go to the www.weather.unisys.com, click on hurricane and look at the 1851-2004 archives. click on 1954. should be self-explanatory. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 22 2005 12:43 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Frank P]
      #44673 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:26 AM

According to the new coordinates at 11 a.m., it actually moved a bit ENE. I think this quick slowdown or crawl has put more credence back in to a possible Florida track. That is why we are seeing the uncertainty in the new discussion. I know a storm is close by to my east because my winds are N to NW, extremely rare in the summer, unless of course a storm is just offshore.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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wiley
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Frank P]
      #44674 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:28 AM

Question from a neophyte:
As far as I can tell, there are at least eight different forecast tracks at least according to SWFMD). What is the major difference between these and which is historically the most accurate? I'm sure there's a website or a post that discusses this, no?
thanks,


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: wiley]
      #44675 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:41 AM

flamommy... I am not sure in what context you are talking about, but 1954 is the year of hurricane Hazel, which hit the midatlantic states and was moving at such a velocity that it made it alll the way to Canada before being downgraded to a tropical storm. Again... I don't know in what context you are talking about.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Jul 22 2005 11:54 AM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: on the record [Re: HanKFranK]
      #44676 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:42 AM

Do you think the wave will send rain as high as the upper Texas coast? We've already had too much rain as it is.

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: on the record [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44677 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:44 AM

Texas/northern Mexico very well could see a tropical storm event next week. It's funny how we all beg for rain in time of drought, and then very quickly recieve too much of it.

EDIT: Yeah... I know.

Edited by Lysis (Fri Jul 22 2005 11:53 AM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: on the record [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44678 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:45 AM

I am talking about the wave in the Caribbean.

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
Re: on the record [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44679 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:46 AM

I am trying to pull up a current projected map from the SFWMD site. Please tell me how to navigate in this site. Once I go in, do I go to weather and there where do I go? Any help is appreciated. When I asked before everyone just keep sending me the link. I need to know how to navigate the site. Thanks

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances

Edited by Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser (Fri Jul 22 2005 11:47 AM)


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: on the record [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44680 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:47 AM

This is exactly what happened. We had a drought and now we have too much rain. I guess that is life on the coast, at least here in Southeast Texas.

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THSwonder
Unregistered




Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #44681 - Fri Jul 22 2005 11:58 AM

I know we have franklin now and possible gert in a day or so but what about that eastern atlantic tropical wave its also possible it could form before july over and that would be what 8 tropical systems before august that would be scary to think of what august and september would be like but for now what does any one think about the eastern atlantic tropical wave and DONT IGNORE THIS ONE

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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Lysis]
      #44682 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:03 PM

With 3 models bringing Franklin west before 29 north...stay awake!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave [Re: THSwonder]
      #44683 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:06 PM

I think I answered this on page 2. Its an excellent wave and bears watching. Only inhibiting factor is dry air. As it moves west it should get into a more favorable environment. Its a large wave.

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