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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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KingTex
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: The Livable Forest, TX
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #44706 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:45 PM

Quote:

One more named storm and we`re all the way to G and its still July. Maybe we`ll go through all the letters this season seeing that the tropical records are falling like the snow in Buffalo around Janurary. Just for the heck of it, whats the farthest we`ve gone when it comes to name storms in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico in one given hurricane season historically speaking. The way things are going, I think its a distinct possibility that we either tie the record or break it this year.......Time will tell.........Another note, the shuttle is still on the pad for a possible Tuesday launch. Thats a good sign for central Florida.....Weatherchef


We got to the T storm (Tanya) in 1995. That is the most since they've been naming storms. In fact, there has only been 2 named P storms, one R, one S, and one T. There may have been more storms during a year before they named storms, but those are the records since they've been named.

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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: Movement [Re: Steve H1]
      #44707 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:45 PM

Quote:

Its a wait and see.




As they all are !


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Goosus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave [Re: Waggy]
      #44708 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:47 PM

Am I the only one here who already doesn't like Waggy? Quite pushy.

Ok, I'll be the second one to mention this. What's the deal with the circular flare up of convection around 53W 10N? It's almost the size of Franklin and is quite symetrical in nature. Is this the new invest on the Navy site?


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: pcola]
      #44709 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:47 PM

Quote:

With 3 models bringing Franklin west before 29 north...stay awake!




That's the key that those three models are betting on. If Franklin gets east of Jax(30 N) he gets swept out to sea. But they think he never makes it that far and gets forced back to the west.

He is looking a bit better, more like a developing TS. I suspect the pressure will start falling a little, but he's taking his time doing everything today, moving being one of them. Looking at the vis sat you would think he's farther to the NE and moving faster than he is, but the Melbourne rader looks like a slow NNW. Will he be north of the Cape by Sat morning?? If not, he could miss the bus, and hang around with no idea where to go.


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Movement [Re: Steve H1]
      #44710 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:48 PM

I'm having a difficult time telling if it's moving north or just building northward. Is there an easy way to tell?

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: KingTex]
      #44711 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:48 PM

If they do go through the names, do they just start over with the next rotation for next year???

nope. should we go past Wilma the set of names goes into greek letters.. alpha beta gamma delta... etc. we'll be hard pressed to get there. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 22 2005 12:54 PM)


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CarolinaGurl
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 36
Loc: Wilmington/Kure Beach, NC
1954 - Hazel [Re: Lysis]
      #44712 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:50 PM

Try this link to read about Hazel - she went right up the Cape Fear River just like every other cane to come this way has done. I actually lived in a beach hut that survived Hazel in Kure Beach when we first moved here.

http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurricanes/nc_hazel.html

--------------------
My Storms - Hugo, Bertha, Bonnie, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene. Arthur


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
future gulf system [Re: Steve H1]
      #44714 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:53 PM

franklin is either going to get the connection and recurve or miss it and loop back. this won't be decided until late in the weekend (if it's jetting ene at that point all clear, if it's stalled again or drifting south look out).
there appears to be a broad surface low forming on the east coast of the yucatan. it should propagate nw over the peninsula and be in the sw gulf tomorrow. i'm thinking the globals pushing it into mexico are garbage because none really initialize much of a system and treat it like an open wave.. once it develops a defined surface low and plenty of convection the mean deep-layer flow is from the se.. should push it nw towards texas. early next week as the upper ridge shifts east, the center of height falls should be over the western gulf states and bend the track of whatever is there northward... if the feature on the e coast of the yucatan is going to be 'it', i'd say that mass ends up btw corpus christi and houston... centered on victoria... around monday night.
heat content in the western gulf is still very high in spite of emily having gone through earlier this week. theres a shot that a strengthening hurricane will hit texas early next week.
wave east of the islands is half moist/half saharan dust.. should generate more convection as it nears 40w and i'm thinking it will develop around 50w. there may be a tropical system approaching the leewards around tue-wed.
HF 1753z22july


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: joepub1]
      #44715 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:55 PM


Looking at the vis sat you would think he's farther to the NE and moving faster than he is, but the Melbourne rader looks like a slow NNW. Will he be north of the Cape by Sat morning?? If not, he could miss the bus, and hang around with no idea where to go.

I agree. Looking at Melbourne radar, if he is moving at attl, it is to the NNW... but barely

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: Movement [Re: TAZMAN]
      #44716 - Fri Jul 22 2005 12:59 PM

The Bamn models to me are useless. Although JB says he likes the idea of Franklin coming back to the U.S. I dont see it happening. For 1 there will be no strong ridge to push it back westward. That ridge will be weak. After the trough moves off the east coast this weekend, a weak ridge will form and possibly halt the NE movement of Franklin, then a deeper trough will come into the great lakes and eventually east coast and sweep him NE rapidly early-mid next week.
BTW Joe was looking at the wrong telaconnection. The current trop off japan is moving N and eventually NE. The System hes talking about hitting Japan is in comparison to the one going to be in the gulf. I agree on the Japan hit, just he sees the wrong teleconect system.Like he or anyone says, we will see what will happen and if Im wrong then this will be the 1st blown forecast outside of me missing Dennis by 75 miles from 3 days out ( which wasnt too bad).

you missed Dennis by 75 mi from 1 day out; 3 days out you had it further east. to be fair i had it in about the same spot. you aced Arlene and emily, but were lackluster with bret and cindy. those are the facts. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jul 22 2005 03:05 PM)


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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Ed G]
      #44717 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:11 PM

Quote:


I hate to say this, but I'd love a chance to try out my new hurricane panels!




LMAO....be careful what you ask for!!! you just might find out they are not rated for the wind speeds you could end up getting........

--------------------
Stay Aware...Stay Alert....Stay Alive.....


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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: firestar_1]
      #44718 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:20 PM

Kind of general, but Franklin is looking alot better the last hour or so.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html


EDIT: atleast you have shutters, unlike myself.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Fri Jul 22 2005 01:22 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: MissBecky]
      #44719 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:25 PM

MissBecky -- the BAM series of models only take into account the steering flow and the Beta drift (related to Coriolis) of the storm. That's pretty much it, making them somewhat limited. The BAMM takes into account the middle levels as those steering the storm, the BAMD most of the atmospheric, and the BAMS (often not used) just the low levels.

Note about navigating the SFWMD site -- I don't know of any direct way it can be done. Essentially, you can just take the address I provided before and change storm_91 to whatever one you think is out there -- e.g. 06 for Franklin, 05 for Emily, and so on.

Note about satellite colorization -- the raw satellite data goes to many places, including TV stations. There are algorithms that exist to provide any sort of colorization that you like for a satellite image, and the TV stations apply ones they feel are best for TV to show what is out there. Similarly, the NHC has one of their own as well, while the AVN Color composite is yet another choice out there. Different color schemes exist for other satellite products as well. Really, it's the same data...just a different color scheme applied based on user/viewer preferences.

Note about Franklin and a northward movement -- the storm is drifting right now, but most of the motion can be attributed to the system becoming better organized in association with the deep convection. I don't think any definitive trend has begun, but be watching from here through the rest of the day to see if one does get started.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: Clark]
      #44720 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:29 PM

sfwmd is now showing 91L

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

oops forgot to put up the link, sorry

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Edited by NewWatcher (Fri Jul 22 2005 01:31 PM)


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion [Re: NewWatcher]
      #44721 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:35 PM

I like those models!!!

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Jan
Unregistered




Re: 1954 - Hazel [Re: CarolinaGurl]
      #44722 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:42 PM

Here is a link to some more information about Hazel. I recently saw a show on public TV about Myrtle Beach, SC and it showed a lot of photos of the damage from Hazel. I don't think there was a house left on the oceanfront.


WRAL web page


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #44723 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:43 PM

Quote:


But I do know Sahara dust will rain on Florida this Monday- enough to leave a red film on vehicles and possibly have air quality advisories issued for all people with respiratory problems to stay indoors.





Okay - really feeling like i missed something. I am afraid - very afraid - not of the "storm" - anyone who lives in FL knows that we live with lots of dust - but that this idea is really running around. Where does it come from? I am not taking it terribly seriously - call me a sceptic - but I would like to know why?


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: nowhammies]
      #44724 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:56 PM

Quote:


But I do know Sahara dust will rain on Florida this Monday- enough to leave a red film on vehicles and possibly have air quality advisories issued for all people with respiratory problems to stay indoors.




If advisories may be issued, wouldn't infomation on this be issued in the Hazardous Weather Outlooks already, especially if we are going to get enough to cause a red film on vehicles? Is there any official infomation on this from the NWS at all?

Edit - Thanks Rasvar for that link below

--------------------
"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein

Edited by Jamiewx (Fri Jul 22 2005 01:57 PM)


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: nowhammies]
      #44725 - Fri Jul 22 2005 01:56 PM

Here is a link with information on the "sandstorm" [Reg may be required to view]
Sandstorm is coming

--------------------
Jim


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea [Re: Jamiewx]
      #44726 - Fri Jul 22 2005 02:02 PM

A "rain storm" of dust is overblowing the matter. We see these outbreaks of the dust layer a couple of times each hurricane season, bringing only minor effects to our part of the ocean. It might cause things to be slightly more hazy than they already are (given the stagnant weather conditions of the past month), maybe even cause slgiht impairment to breathing for those who normally have trouble with it -- but the basic ideas in the newspaper article are likely on the extreme end of things you might see.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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