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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Unregistered User]
      #44890 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:35 PM

Look at the thread in the E and N forum...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Franklin, but also looking south (and east) [Re: Clark]
      #44891 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:35 PM

Franklin's been trying to get better organized this morning, coinciding earlier with the diurnal convective maximum, with a big flareup of convection on the east side of the system. It appears that the center has tried reforming a bit moreso on the north edge of the convective flareup -- a bit further east than at 11a in that advisory package -- and could be a sign of the storm trying to reach hurricane intensity. Current forecast track thinking remains largely unchanged, ultimately taking it out to sea, but not really as a consequence of the global model guidance and moreso a result of mesoscale model guidance (MM5) that keeps the storm intact plus the evolution of the midlatitude pattern over the coming days.

Meanwhile, the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche has lost a bit of its convection with the interaction with land, but still maintains a very healthy low-level signature. The recon flight out there has been canceled, but the TCSP/CAMEX field experiement group will have a high-level plane in the vicinity today, gathering potential genesis data. It's an excellent case for their purposes, particularly if this disturbance makes the leap to cyclone status. It still has a chance, not as great of one as before admittedly, but it could quickly get up there to TS status -- much like Bret earlier this season.

Out in the central Atlantic near 40W, the broad area of low pressure has reformed, per QuikSCAT data, but most of the convection and organization is just to the southeast of the wave. The Saharan dust layer is loosening its grip on the region, but any development is still going to be slow to occur. Of more interest in the short (and perhaps long) term is a wave just off of the coast of Africa, SE of the Cape Verdes. Convective complexes have been persisting in that area moreso than they did earlier this season, and this one is already fairly well organized. The FSU MM5 -- best at genesis cases -- calls for some slow development over the next two days with more rapid development later. Curiously, it slows it down quite a bit later on, but I would pay more attention to the development than I would to that. How well it holds together today into tomorrow will tell us how serious this disturbance could be at getting its act together and whether or not it'll be our first true Cape Verde storm of the year (Emily excluded for this case).

As HF said in the old thread last night, the east Atlantic is now open for business...all the way until the end of September. Waters are still above normal out there, shear is low, and the atmosphere is moist. Good bet we'll see something form out that way before the end of the month.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Franklin, but also looking south (and east) [Re: Clark]
      #44894 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:40 PM

Do you think this year is a 1954 redux, or is that just media sensationalism that you noted in your other post?

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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MaoMaster
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. *DELETED* [Re: Clark]
      #44895 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:42 PM

Post deleted by Clark

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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: MaoMaster]
      #44896 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:44 PM

not sure but look at fl winds

URNT11 KNHC 231603
97779 15554 70286 73910 15100 23049 18089 /2569
42240
RMK AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 19


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MAN GOOOOO
Unregistered




Re: Franklin, but also looking south (and east) [Re: Keith234]
      #44897 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:45 PM

Deleted by Moderator

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jul 23 2005 12:47 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Clark]
      #44899 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:47 PM

Quote:

Hey guys -- while the bow echo may be fascinating in nature (I've been watching it part of the morning myself), could you all take it to the other weather events forum? Sorry...just that there's a strong tropical storm offshore with an uncertain future ahead of it. Thanks!




My apologies! Next time will remember to start a new thread in another forum.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Margie]
      #44904 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:56 PM

looks like we might have hurricane Franklin

URNT12 KNHC 231653
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/16:22:30Z
B. 29 deg 35 min N
074 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1466 m
D. 65 kt
E. 135 deg 025 nm
F. 224 deg 060 kt
G. 135 deg 053 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1528 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 13:44:30 Z


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: MikeG]
      #44905 - Sat Jul 23 2005 12:58 PM

At 1001mb? This is kind of interesting. In the short time I've been here I've seen the pressure go down and the winds catching up later, but haven't seen the winds increase before the pressure drops.

What is the typical range for pressures for a Cat 1?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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MikeG
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Margie]
      #44906 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:00 PM

65 kt means the highest estimated surface wind is 65 knots on this particular inbound leg. The flight meteorologist looks at the sea surface and can estimate how strong the winds are by what the sea looks like.

Will see if it hold together and becomes the _ hurricane of the Season.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Margie]
      #44907 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:01 PM

Well according to the saffir simpson scale, everything greater then or equal to 980 could be a cAT 1. Keep in mind margie that the pressure of Frank is all relative.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Margie]
      #44908 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:03 PM

From the TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 (NHC) at 11am

Quote:

EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL ABOVE 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER SINCE FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.




From what I understand, the important thing to know is the surrounding pressure - it's the pressure *difference* that is one indicator of intensity.,,,

'shana

Edited by ShanaTX (Sat Jul 23 2005 01:05 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Keith234]
      #44910 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:19 PM

Quote:

Well according to the saffir simpson scale, everything greater then or equal to 980 could be a cAT 1. Keep in mind margie that the pressure of Frank is all relative.




Thanks, I see what you mean, because it is contained within an area of generally higher pressure.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: ShanaTX]
      #44912 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:20 PM

Attack of trolls? Anyway, looks like if Clark's got the center right, there's almost an eastward movement at this point per setup. It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Franklin could either be decoupled (heh) or trapped.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

Vigorous upper level low immediately to the west providing a bit of southerly shear on the west side of the system.

91L's running out of room, but it managed some broad surface cyclonic turning. I'm not sure if it will make it to TD status before landfall which is probably only 18-24 hours away in extreme SE Mexico.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Random Chaos
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Margie]
      #44913 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:26 PM

Quote:

At 1001mb? This is kind of interesting. In the short time I've been here I've seen the pressure go down and the winds catching up later, but haven't seen the winds increase before the pressure drops.

What is the typical range for pressures for a Cat 1?




<delurk>

Not sure, but it is lower than that. I can find pressure info easily, but 99% of the sites don't make the distinction between Atlantic and Pacific pressures. In the Pacific pressures tend to be (as I recall) 10+ mb lower for the same wind speed, so I don't know which these sites are reporting. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale for a nice chart that doesn't distinguish between Atlantic and Pacific presures.

Anyway, as for pressure, I've noticed that both Dennis and Emily seemed to hit categories based on wind speeds well before their pressure caught up. Since Shanna mentioned that the importance is the relative pressure, could it be that we have overall higher pressure in this part of the Atlantic this year than usual? I don't have a source of historical data so I don't know - just a guess though

</delurk>


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Random Chaos
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Steve]
      #44914 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:28 PM

Quote:

It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Franklin could either be decoupled (heh) or trapped.




<delurk>

Storm or meteorologist?

</delurk>


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pedro
Unregistered




Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: MikeC]
      #44915 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:29 PM

on the visible loop it look like it starting to take an east movement to almost south east. I might be wrong but may be it going to start making a loop in the next few hours

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Random Chaos]
      #44916 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:31 PM

On that note, I found it interesting that Dennis’s lowest pressure and his highest windspeed did not match up (how are they going to mark the track graph?). It bothers me that a hurricane’s peak intensity is measured by the pressure instead of the winds. After all, all pressure does is hurt your ears a bit.

--------------------
cheers


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Maybe Maybe not
Unregistered




Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Lysis]
      #44917 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:33 PM

Pressure now up to 1003 wind speed 60Kt.

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Lysis
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
Re: OT, but weather relevant. [Re: Maybe Maybe not]
      #44918 - Sat Jul 23 2005 01:36 PM

The can't upgrade him into a hurrcane on a rising pressure trend.

--------------------
cheers


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