maybe maybe not
Unregistered
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324
URNT12 KNHC 231716
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/17:04:10Z
B. 29 deg 41 min N
074 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1460 m
D. 40 kt
E. 225 deg 013 nm
F. 307 deg 039 kt
G. 223 deg 022 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1519 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 25
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 16:05:10 Z
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Bloodstar
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Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I wonder if we're about to see the de-coupling occur? The storm appears to be tracking to the ENE but the low level flow that's exposed on the northern side seems to be heading ENE.
Of course, I'm just using Mark I eyeball so....
Anyone else see what I think I'm seeing?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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At least it looks like it is to me, Storms are starting to fire up near the current low level spin, with possible banding features already in place to kick start the storm, but it is still very close to the coast. So... it'll still take a while, but I would be more suprised if it didn't turn into something tropical.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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I dont know what everyone keeps seeing? Its still moving slowly NE, midlevel clouds are moving se from the trough to the nw outflow. Also this isnt a hurricane cause its pressure is too high. The 70mph is a high est due to convection downbursts or gusts. Outside of that it was noted in the discussion yesterday the storms winds are about 20mph lower then that. I would say Franklin is more like 50mph with gusts around 65-70mph. The Bam models are more like Bad models to me.
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I know that Franklin is most likely not splitting apart, but it looks like it. I mean, I used a sticky note to help figure out the straight line motion and everything! 
But in all seriousness, it appears to have two componant motions to the curculation.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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Recon got cancelled out there, but the TCSP/CAMEX plane is on its way. And rightfully so, considering the SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT that came out of the a little while ago
It's not very well organized, but it's something. And it too, like so many of the storms this year, is very small.
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Clark
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Looks like the storm is continuing to reorganize, but I don't think it's about the shear out or collapse. The infrared imagery is kinda deceiving, giving the apperance of something awry at foot, but the visible imagery shows the center still on the north side of the convective mass, not moving a whole lot but trending eastward.
My best guess is that the center is continually trying to reform underneath the deepest convection, but having a tough time staying there due to moderate shear across the storm. It's not going to not get to hurricane intensity without a fight.
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MikeG
Unregistered
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been looking at sat and see the low level swirl...just on left side of image. Looks to have a way to go though. There is a surface low there, but like the statement reads, it's broad!
goes-11
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Not to start a flame war (promise) but, there is no way to tell from your post that Bastardi said that....no enclosed quotes at the end....so I thought it was you. No harm meant!!
Also,....got my user name right this time.
Margie---you are very insightful, great posts. Agree with you about Joe.
MM
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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That is a shadow on a cloud.
MM
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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You know if Frankline was about 100 miles more or less to its sw maybe near 77w and 27N right now,, i would probably favor the Bamn model. The trough axis is about 78W right now and the northern part is moving rapidly E. Franklin is just barely ahead of it but the trough should bypass him. Thing is is Frankin too far east for the ridge over the Plains to capture him tomorrow? In the meantime another shortwave trough will ride the ridge and dropdown early-mid next week. Will Franklin Sunday afternoon thru Monday stay west of 72N? or meander SSE-SSW? There are questions but right now we have to stay on the original thinking he will catch the 2nd trough near 70W and 31N and get pushed NE during the middle of next week.
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Question for ya Clark...
Looking at the latest WV Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Will that chunk on energy that has been ripped off the center make it to the Coast?
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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sorry about my SP LOL I type too fast and too lazy to go back to correct. I should log in on my normal account.
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Hmm, someone said there is a special trop dist statement...where is it, I don't see it on the TPC page?
MM
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Well the good old BAMM or (BAD) model now takes Franklin also out to sea. No more of a east florida hit.
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MikeG
Unregistered
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URNT40 KWBC 231800
NOAA2 WXWXA SUSPECT
just completed it's first obs on BOC system, and AF304 out at Franlkin is heading home.
I have been looking at alot of sats and surface conditions and am thinking that Franklin maybe moving more East the north now. he has great outflow on south of center in the upper levels, but will the low level out run the mid level circulation.... i think that it's starting to look somewhat like that....will low level move to the ne and other parts turn the loop? time will tell. Very interesting strorm now.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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Quote:
Hmm, someone said there is a special trop dist statement...where is it, I don't see it on the TPC page?
MM
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
'shana
It's on the TPC page just below the Franklin info
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
Attack of trolls? Anyway, looks like if Clark's got the center right, there's almost an eastward movement at this point per setup. It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Franklin could either be decoupled (heh) or trapped.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Vigorous upper level low immediately to the west providing a bit of southerly shear on the west side of the system.
91L's running out of room, but it managed some broad surface cyclonic turning. I'm not sure if it will make it to TD status before landfall which is probably only 18-24 hours away in extreme SE Mexico.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Steve
The next star wars movie  anywho, Franklin may have some decoupling going on per the BAMM later today when the the axis of the trof nears. Climatology does argue that most if not all systems that form with 50 nm's of Franklin makle Landfall on . So maybe it's on to something. Speaking of the BAM models, do they take into account climatology and persistence?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Remember, pressure is relative when it comes to wind speed. For a tropical storm -- not a hurricane -- the wind field balance is going to have some contribution from the environmental pressure gradient. Pressures around the storm are relatively high, helping to contribute to the strong winds. I believe that the surface winds may not quite be 70mph (picking nits here), but they aren't 50mph either. The and the hurricane hunters know what they are doing out there...
A few years ago, we had a tropical storm with a pressure near/over 1020mb, embedded within a region of higher pressures (~1040mb). While most hurricanes have pressures under 990mb, you can see them with pressures in the 990-1000mb range as well (admittedly rare). Franklin's likely not a hurricane, but it's trying to get there.
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Clark
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Keith -- no, they don't. That's just the CLIPER model.
MikeG -- I also think that short-term motion is more easterly, but I do think part of that can be attributed to reorganization towards the colder cloud tops to the east.
Cocoa Beach -- Not sure I see that piece of energy you mention, but I do see an upper-level low over the Florida Peninsula right now. Perhaps that is what you are speaking of?
As an aside, it appears outflow with Franklin has improved quite a bit to the south and east of the storm, with very good transverse banding (the cirrus cloud features) in both regions. If the center gets under that cloud mass and stays there, it could deepen rather suddenly (albeit likely not drastically).
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