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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Maybe maybe not
Unregistered




Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Unregistered User]
      #45104 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:05 PM

Read the Discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/240255.shtml

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 23 2005 11:08 PM)


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Wxwatcher2
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Reged: Tue
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Maybe maybe not]
      #45105 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:12 PM

Interesting day on this forum.

Franklin appears to be moving NE away from any land mass.
Hopefully we will have a breather before the next system cranks up.

Here's to clear skys and smooth sailing.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #45106 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:17 PM

Yeah - looking at Saharan Air Layer graphics it doesn't look like much is likely to form out in the Atlantic for a while.

oops - misread 10 latitude as equator

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Jul 23 2005 11:57 PM)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Regarding T.D 7. [Re: Keith234]
      #45107 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:18 PM

11pm discussion TD 7 out.

Says the depression has a well-defined circulation with wind gusts of tropical storm strength. Still heading for Mexico - still looking for possible upgrade to TS (Gert) tomorrow.

'shana


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47canetoad
Unregistered




New Birth From Africa? [Re: MikeC]
      #45108 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:19 PM

Looking at the models, the MM5 SupEnSamb shows a LLC forming in the mid Atlantic. The birth of our new storm to start tracking. Looking at the ir sats, there is a good wave and a hint of rotation in the mid levels. Long ways to go, looks like a fish spinner. What do you think?

Just as a note -- the FSU MM5 and FSU Superensemble are two entirely different things. The Superensemble does not include MM5 data in its forecasts. --Clark

Edited by Clark (Sat Jul 23 2005 11:56 PM)


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Steve H1
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Posts: 309
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Re: New Birth From Africa? [Re: 47canetoad]
      #45109 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:32 PM

The models actually show 2 developing over the next 6 days; one near the Leewards and one halfway between there and Africa. No rest for the weary. And Franklin may be up to something.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: New Birth From Africa? [Re: Steve H1]
      #45110 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:38 PM

I think he may be up to something too!!!!! Looks to me like the convection is all pushing southward and getting squashed from the north. Will he now change direction too? Some models have a wave/disturbance approaching Florida next weekend.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #45111 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:44 PM

I have been reading this site for over a year. Usually just watch, listen and learn. So take it easy on me!

Has anyone noticed that off the Fl coast near Ft Pierce or so a line of storms off shore that look like line/link or something to Franklin? Whats up with this thing?

http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html

--------------------
....................
28.5N 81.2W


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: New Birth From Africa? [Re: Steve H1]
      #45112 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:49 PM

Quote:

The models actually show 2 developing over the next 6 days; one near the Leewards and one halfway between there and Africa. No rest for the weary. And Franklin may be up to something.




Right right...I was off on my equator position on the Sahara Air Layer map - and thus was reading much more particles at the hurricane development latitudes than there is - oops! (I was thinking 10 was 0...)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Girlnascar]
      #45113 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:54 PM

Quote:

Has anyone noticed that off the Fl coast near Ft Pierce or so a line of storms off shore that look like line/link or something to Franklin? Whats up with this thing?

http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html




Hmm? Are you talking about Franklin itself and not realizing it? I dont see any storms that might link up - nothing else near the storm:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html


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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Orlando Florida USA
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45114 - Sat Jul 23 2005 11:59 PM

Yes, but since Franklin is supposed to have been moving ENE all day wasn't sure what I was looking at. Thanks!

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Franklin, decoupling? [Re: Girlnascar]
      #45115 - Sun Jul 24 2005 12:16 AM

Looking at the latest Satellite pics Franklin does appear to be decoupling as the LLC appears to be heading ENE while the MLC is being left behind or drifting in a more SE or possibly eventually S direction.


--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Girlnascar]
      #45116 - Sun Jul 24 2005 12:16 AM

Quote:

Has anyone noticed that off the Fl coast near Ft Pierce or so a line of storms off shore that look like line/link or something to Franklin? Whats up with this thing?




That's a heavy line of thunderstorms. Just east of Ft Pierce.
The line is moving toward the SE.
Affiliated with Franklin? I can't really tell at this point. Seems to be something of an outflow boundary...but from where.

Looking at a IR shortwave loop. The thunderstorm complex apparently developed in an area between Franklin and the mid-upper level Low over S Florida.
Similar to the area in front of a electric hand mixer.
Converging winds mixing/ forcing their properties together.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kmlb.shtml

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 24 2005 12:27 AM)


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Girlnascar
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 25
Loc: Orlando Florida USA
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: danielw]
      #45117 - Sun Jul 24 2005 12:44 AM

Been trying to figure this one out but not enough experience I guess. Franklin's LLC is heading northeast and MLC is staying behind?

--------------------
....................
28.5N 81.2W


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: Girlnascar]
      #45119 - Sun Jul 24 2005 01:06 AM

Don't feel left out. RECON is flying circles out there, literally!
Probably have two areas to deal with now...if the two levels split.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: danielw]
      #45121 - Sun Jul 24 2005 01:45 AM

Love the hand mixer analogy. I've been watching everything getting squeezed through there on the water vapor loop tonight. I was noticing an optical illusion, not sure what you'd call it, that even though Franklin is spinning the same dir as the low, counterclockwise, because the outflow feathers off and you can see the thin wisps of the clouds getting pulled into the rotation of the low, it looks sort of the opposite (clockwise).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could [Re: danielw]
      #45122 - Sun Jul 24 2005 01:48 AM

Because after this morning's experience people were throwing some new words at me (derecho, mesocyclone), I did a lot of reading today. I have posted a new thread on the other forums about my experience in 1998 which I now learn was a derecho (apparently a pretty large and infamous one). I had been driving home and was caught out in it.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Domino
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Loc: Makati City, Philippines
TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm [Re: Margie]
      #45123 - Sun Jul 24 2005 01:54 AM

I am surprised nobody has posted this but anyway...
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005

THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND PROVIDE A COMPLETE
ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATING SUCH.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON
BOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM GERT. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...THE SFMR REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 36 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF GERT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE 34 KT WIND RADII.

GERT IS THE EARLIEST 7TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF AUGUST 7TH. THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION BEING SEPTEMBER
23RD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: Hello TS Gert... [Re: ShanaTX]
      #45124 - Sun Jul 24 2005 01:55 AM

I was wondering if this was why it was takin so long on the advisory...

Quote:

Tropical Storm Gert Special Advisory Number 3

Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005


...Seventh tropical storm of the season forms in the Bay of
Campeche...

Reports from a NOAA research aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Seven has strengthened and become a tropical storm.




I really really need to type faster... or not preview so much... or something


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm [Re: Domino]
      #45125 - Sun Jul 24 2005 01:59 AM

From all that I've seen and read, I expected to see it (Gert) in the morning, I figured with the 5am advisory.

Well another record bites the dust. This'll be it for July right? One more week to go.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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