Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Yikes I was wondering why it was getting so dark here in the south metro. Take a look at what is about to clobber us (10:35 CDT):
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmpx.shtml
Kind of a weird shape, usually when a line forms it is a lot longer.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Franklin is overall increasing in convection, but pressure was up 1 mb probably due to some downdrafts. Yesterday steering currents died down somewhat and allowed it to dirft ene for a while. This has had serious implactionas on the track of the storm lattitude longitude wise, but based on the esemble means this will likely have no impact on the U.S. There is an outiside chance that this thing will become a hurricane later today, but with the trof nearing chances will decrease drastically, have to wait and see for that one. BAMM medium still takes it back to Florida, that is not a likely option at this time. I would side with the now, but the forecast still remains tricky...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Looks like a bow echo...i would shut down the computer. 
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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MikeG
Unregistered
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based on that vortex...
Franklin made have moved a little south and west? (or a wobble)
11 am has 29.4 75.0
on this drop.... obs 16 29.28 75.02
does that seem right? i might be off
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Reading Stewart's 11:00 am discussion, I am not ready to raise an all clear flag for Florida.
Quote:
JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF
THE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
This may be more indicative of Franklin possibly tearing apart in the future. However, it also seems to indicate to me that the door is not shut on other options. I think the chances of a loop around are still small; but as long as that chance exists, I will be wary.
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Jim
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EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up?
Most of the model guidance
...Excluding the much faster and models...now slows down
Franklin through 72 hours and either dissipated the cyclone or
waits for another shortwave trough to pick up the cyclone and
accelerate it quickly to the northeast. Just one problem...all of
the models...to some degree...move the mid-level circulation slowly
back to the south and southwest after 72 hours. This scenario is
similar to the medium and deep BAM models. Given that Franklin is
currently south of and slower than all of the model guidance
from 06Z...and that all of the models forecast the mid-level flow
to become northwest to northerly by 72 hours...the official track
has been shifted to the right...or south...of and a little slower
than the previous forecast. This track is consistent with the GUNS
model consensus.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I don't know that the water temps up in the NE US are all that much different than normal. Waters near-shore are warm, up to the low 80s during the day, but they cool back down to the mid 70s at night, a factor of how shallow they really are. The waters off-shore a bit are in the 74 degree range, actually below normal for this time of year (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif). Gulf Stream waters are about a degree above normal, but the waters in the NE US and along-shore are on average below-normal, and during the day so warm only as a factor of the diurnal cycle.
Another example of media irresponsibility: the following AP article absolutely gets wrong the reason why we will see extremely hot temperatures across the SE US Sunday into Monday (http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/12207115.htm).
"Tropical Storm Franklin strengthened as it spun away from the Bahamas on Saturday and moved farther east in the Atlantic, but blasts of warm air from its core were expected to bring extreme heat to the Florida peninsula."
--A warm-core cyclone is defined by having temperatures in its core warmer than its environment. Were there to be blasts of warm air out of the storm, it would be weakening -- not strengthening -- and for such a small storm, the effects would be very minimal. The only way for such a scenario to unfold (the storm bringing about warmer temperatures) were for the warm-core to make landfall, something that will not happen.
--The storm is already and will be even more so sufficiently far away from the coast not to have effects of subsidence on its periphery lead to warmer temperatures over land. Even if it remains near to shore, it would only affect parts of land nearest the coast -- and by that time, it will be north of the Florida peninsula.
--Most importantly, the large, strong ridge of high pressure currently over the central Plains is expected to move eastward, bringing about the warmer temperatures across the SE US...just like we've seen in the central Plains over the past week. We might touch 100 here in Tallahassee on Monday, for instance.
Pardon the rant, but I'd like to use that AP article as a learning experience regarding this storm, plus a reminder to challenge the common collective when something seems awry. People don't always get it right -- and in some cases, get it completely wrong -- and that's where education comes in.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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We get a lot of those lines that bow out here, in fact after every bout of warm humid weather...I have everything plugged into an outlet with surge protection. There's a nasty cell approaching my area.
Took a couple photos as it rolled in...green behind the shelf cloud, but we didn't see any straight-line winds or hail as of yet even though it started to rain.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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franklin has been an interesting liitle storm. Kinda confusing, but at least non lifethreatening. At least for right now...
'shana
Edited by ShanaTX (Sat Jul 23 2005 12:26 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Hails probably melting if the airmass is tropical...but you're in for a beating. I think the area's under a severe thunderstorm watch. A shelf cloud? Are you dealing with mesocyclone?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up
No. It would be the clockwise flow around the high pressure behind the trof that would force it back on a westerly course. Will that happen? I don't know. But the flow around the trof wouldn't deflect it SW, if it were part of the steering regime. It would have SWly winds out front of it tending to steer it off to the NE. Hey, I got a big fat "F" in physics, but I do understand clocks.
Steve Hacket (vague RnR reference)
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Lysis
User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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a surge protector is not going to help, especially with everything turned on. Trust me… my uncle in Orlando averages one tv per year.
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cheers
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MaoMaster
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
Mebbe I missed something, LI Phil, but, why would you look at what has happened this year and ask if it is '1954'??
um...if you actually took the time to read my post, you'd see that it was Bastardi who made the quote, not me.
and, yes, my bad, MDR = Main, net mean...need to proofread better
Main "NET" mean?
While you proofread try spell checker too!
Be careful!
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sat Jul 23 2005 12:24 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
>>I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up
No. It would be the clockwise flow around the high pressure behind the trof that would force it back on a westerly course. Will that happen? I don't know. But the flow around the trof wouldn't deflect it SW, if it were part of the steering regime. It would have SWly winds out front of it tending to steer it off to the NE. Hey, I got a big fat "F" in physics, but I do understand clocks.
Steve Hacket (vague RnR reference)
I like to leave the physics for the models...Here's a link to the current 1000mb or surface level steering currents.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif
Though tropical disturbances are steered much more by the 500/850 mb flow (depending on the size). Of course winds still flow counterclockwise around an anticyclone, and clockwise around a cyclone.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Hails probably melting if the airmass is tropical...but you're in for a beating. I think the area's under a severe thunderstorm watch. A shelf cloud? Are you dealing with mesocyclone?
Not enough weather knowledge to know the answer.
When it rolled in there was that dark wedge shaped cloud stretching across the sky, with lighter greenish clouds behind it.
It's rolling through extremely fast and I think after a little rainstorm and some gusts it'll be done real soon. Didn't see any hail after all and I think maybe the main part of the cell slid by just north of where live.
I took a couple photos. What I can do is create another blog on blogger and put them there, and then come back and post the URL - it will take me a minute. Then you can tell me what you think.
OK here it is:
http://mek-weather-photo.blogspot.com/
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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I would suggest not to insult a moderator on any board as it can leave to serious consequences such as an IP BAN.
I think he was trying to be a little sarcastic there...could be wrong, though. --Clark
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Clark (Sat Jul 23 2005 12:22 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
Quote:
Hails probably melting if the airmass is tropical...but you're in for a beating. I think the area's under a severe thunderstorm watch. A shelf cloud? Are you dealing with mesocyclone?
Not enough weather knowledge to know the answer.
When it rolled in there was that dark wedge shaped cloud stretching across the sky, with lighter greenish clouds behind it.
It's rolling through extremely fast and I think after a little rainstorm and some gusts it'll be done real soon. Didn't see any hail after all and I think maybe the main part of the cell slid by just north of where live.
I took a couple photos. What I can do is create another blog on blogger and put them there, and then come back and post the URL - it will take me a minute. Then you can tell me what you think.
OK here it is:
http://mek-weather-photo.blogspot.com/
Pretty undefined for something with such high DBZ's...The greenish hue is most likely due to a hail shaft, but due to the shear heat the hail melts before it reachs the ground. Overall nice...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>I like to leave the physics for the models...Here's a link to the current 1000mb or surface level steering currents
Naturally. But depending on the system in question, one might go for the 800, 500 or 200 as the steering levels change in different scenarios. In the case of the flow map you posted, timing would be everything. Will the midwestern high build in and merge with the offshore high as that pattern has been repeating itself since June? Or will Franklin be up and out by then? As always, timing timing timing. Of course that and $0.50 could buy you a coke at a discount retailer.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Hey guys -- while the bow echo may be fascinating in nature (I've been watching it part of the morning myself), could you all take it to the other weather events forum? Sorry...just that there's a strong tropical storm offshore with an uncertain future ahead of it. Thanks!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MikeG
Unregistered
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been reading NOAA/NASA/HRD stuff this morning about the IFEX and so forth, found an interesting picture
ER-2 ER-2 being chased by a?
it's looks like a bird!
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