scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I already posted that the BAMM or (BAD) model now thats Franklin out to sea. NO more of a florida possiblity.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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....but how would the surface low move faster then the outlfow boundary? Steering currents at the surface are much weaker then at the higher levels.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I am glad to see Florida spared- but we do need moisture on the east coast, believe it or not.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Good..so this storms history, and my forecast verifies.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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pedro
Unregistered
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Those BAMM models could all change during the day today or tommorrow and bring it back to florida you never know what this wierd storm is going to do
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Just because a relatively poor model at these latitudes (the BAMs) decides to shift the track out to sea doesn't mean its right! There seems to be something still screwy with Franklin. He seems like a wanderer.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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It's only that the other models seemed to point Franklin out to sea with the trough and other variables being considered. Of course, anything is possible.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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The BAMM models did the same thing with Jeanne last year. Matter of fact, they all did. Here's the animated model forecast for Jeanne.
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/miamiherald/hurricane/at200411.asp?imgfeature=verification
When she made landfall, the models still had her going North, east and south. Franklin is still too close for me to just say he isn't coming at all and leave it at that. I agree with Steve, something with Franklin is screwy.
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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COgal
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
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Thanks! I forgot how wild and crazy she was!
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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OH no Joe, odds are it will go seaward, but the logic in scott's posts was earlier that BAMM/BAMD are bad models, and their solution to take Franklin back west is wrong. Then when they show Franklin out to sea they are right! I'm picking nits here, but the better way to express that is to say all the global and tropical model solutions are out to sea, therefore this agreement is the most likely solution. The other way made it sound like since the bad model is now out to sea, it is correct. ARRGG! franklin needs to get going, he's driving me NUTZ!! I know what you meant Scott.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I wonder what variable entered the picture for the BAM models to agree that seaward motion was the solution.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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Could be starting his loop. E than SE
I do'nt think he is going out to sea,
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Hey Lori, where are you in Palm Bay SE/NW/.NE??? I've been here since 87. Just curious.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Outflow boundary? Huh? Sorry, I'm not quite following.
Outflow boundaries are surface features as well...albeit with forcing from downdrafts aloft. I don't see any outflow boundaries with Franklin or the other disturbance, so I'm not quite sure that I'm following this discussion, unless you are talking about the thunderstorms in the Central US, which itself is a derecho and not an outflow boundary.
scottsvb -- I'd wait for another run or two of the BAM-series models before declaring an all-clear for Florida. It's close and the threat is lessening, but it's not 100% yet.
Oh, and for everyone's general consumption...we have TD 7 in the Bay of Campeche per the .
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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pedro
Unregistered
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Some of these models are probabley not handeling Franklin that well that why florida it still not out of the woods till the system goes out to the sea
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Near Malabar and Emerson in NE
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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So according to the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement we've got TD 7 ... with advisories starting at 4pm CDT. Also
Quote:
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
Does this mean they might be naming TS Gert at 4pm? Or am I overanticipating?
'shana
edited to add... I was wondering how they picked points to say 'north of ...' and tripped over this while trying to figure out where the heck in Mexico they were talkin about..
Official Breakpoints
Edited by ShanaTX (Sat Jul 23 2005 03:46 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Could be starting his loop. E than SE
I do'nt think he is going out to sea,
Vis sat. loop seems to be showing a SE drift in the most recent couple of frames. Hmmmm....
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Michael
PWS
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Probably not quite a TS -- they note a 25kt TD, subject to change by the time the official package is put out -- but enough of a threat to become one in a short span of time to hoist tropical storm advisories. They are likely on the line with those in charge in Mexico now about that very topic.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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pedro
Unregistered
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I do agree i see a east to south east motion with tropical storm Franklin on the visible satalite
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