Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Correct Margie, but he is getting pushed from the NNW and the center may be re-organizing further to the SE. Notice the largest burst of convection to the SW of the center now bursting. Generally its moving along to the east, but I'm interested in seeing if he adjusts himself 
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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I just noticed that the NWS has posted a Tropical Storm Warning for CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W.
500 PM EDT SAT 23 JUL 2005
It's an offshore warning.
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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Post deleted by Clark
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Quote:
its only July 23rd and we have Franklin and possibly Gert!!
When will all this development end?!?!
Well with the giving off in it's weak phas, a negative NAO, and a near neutral el nino index I would suppose we would be good for a couple weeks. Especially with the large area of disturbed weather associated with the and a couple tropical waves. I would say that there should be at least one area of development (not necessarily the same one) for the next 3 weeks...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Don't bother replying to losers like him...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Don't bother replying to losers like him...
Don't feed the troll.
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Michael
PWS
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Keith234
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Naw, what your seeing is outflow cirrus clouds. The exposed LLC is just making it off the Yucatan. It's not that impressive yes, but it will start strenghtening in the next couple of hours; and and ships both bring it up to strong TS status in the next couple of days...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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If a sub-tropical storm developed in January (highly unlikely) it wouldn't be part of any season as the hurricane season runs from June 1st to Nov. 30. would handle it though, and issue adv's.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Frank P
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I beg to differ Keith, go look at the vis sat loop, you can plainly see the LLC of TD 7 as it is at 19.4N and 93.5W, and this has nothing to do with outflow cirrcus clouds... which is pretty consistent where the had it located per their last advisory, and this is over water not land... now there maybe another LLC or MLC trying to form off the Yucatan but I can't find it .. yet
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Quote:
If a sub-tropical storm developed in January (highly unlikely) it wouldn't be part of any season as the hurricane season runs from June 1st to Nov. 30. would handle it though, and issue adv's.
I know we're drifting further and further off topic, but Ana in 2003 formed in April and was considered a part of the 2003 season.
I was just curious if there was a cut off for the season besides the Dec 31/Jan 1 date...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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pedro
Unregistered
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I cant tell that well where the center of franklin is but i do see the south side of it diging south
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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I see what your saying, my bad. I saw the track and then looked at the floater and saw it in a different area then where I thought. Since it's so disorganized there could be multi LLC that form throughout the night, and there are pockets of warmer water to the north of where the current center is, so maybe they're betting on that some reformation for the center?
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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sprnghill
Unregistered
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why has franklin not been picked up by the trough
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Israel
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THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING
STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES
SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE
MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN
REMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS.
If so, that doesn't bode well now does it for the coast.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Quote:
why has franklin not been picked up by the trough
I am going to take a guess that it is because Franklin was not well defined enough. It would have been like trying to pick up melted mozzarelli. You can do it but you don't get all of it the first time you try.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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What a strange image this is!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg
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Clark
Meteorologist
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While the official hurricane season lasts from June 1st-November 30th, anything that forms during any given calendar year will be classified with that season's totals. There was a storm 30-40 years ago that formed in January; it was classified with that year's hurricane season. As always, has judiciary over anything in the Atlantic in the rare event we get another such system.
The official spot of TD 7 is along the coast, as previously mentioned, but there are hints that it might try to reform further NE in the midst of the convective flareup now coming off of the Yucutan. This is something only occuring within the past hour, however, and requires more time to see if this is a definitive reformation or just a convective blob coming off of the coast.
As for why Franklin hasn't been picked up by the trough: largely because the trough over the U.S. hasn't been strong enough to slide south and cause the storm to accelerate to the north and east. It has turned Franklin towards the east, but not enough to get it out of our hair. It's a tough storm to call, just like was mentioned in the 5p discussion from the , and isn't likely to go much of anywhere for the next few days.
As for the unregistered user who has tried to wreak havoc here today, just ignore them; it's attention they seek. Storm Cooper and I have tried to take care of as many of the posts as we can -- and thanks to those of you who have alerted us of them via the "Post Notify" feature! -- and hopefully we'll be able to move on from here.
Because, of course, we're in the 2005 Hurricane Season. As LI Phil says, Buckle Up!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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Quote:
melted mozzarelli
giggle!
edited to add
7 pm advisory on TD 7 is out ... looks alot like the 4pm advisory...
Quote:
Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...19.5 N... 93.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30
mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
'shana
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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LI Phil or Rollie - I am trying to get either of you!! Check your PM
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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LI phil is away for the weekend...Rolltide will be back in a few.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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