Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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The advisories are coming out earlier and earlier and the discussions later and later.
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Goosus
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Boise ID
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Ok, someone help me out here. I've been watching storms for several years, but this decoupling of the upper and lower circulation centers is fascinating. They have been separate for over a day but seem to be moving in concert with one another.
Which is actually the center of Franklin? I thought it was the LLC.
If the is saying it's drifting to the SW at 3 MPH, they're not seeing the same thing I am. The LLC has been moving just east of due south for many hours now, and it's moving at a much better clip than 3 MPH. I'd say the center of the LLC is at least a good 75 to 100 miles south of where it started the change in direction.
What happens if the LLC "finds" the mid level convection? Are they drawn to each other like a magnet? Do they match back up?
The farther Fanklin drifts from the trough, the harder time it's going to have grabbing it again to throw it Eastward, no?
I'm somewhat new to this, so please excuse my questions if they're basic. 
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Well, it was moving SW...but that was awhile ago. Maybe by the time the advisory was written up and ready to go, it had not started the SE movement yet.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Well the discussion is up...actually it isn't late, it's just that the advisories are coming so much earlier.
Well it looks like it is still a waiting game as long as Franklin is hanging on. So I wonder what we'll be seeing on Tuesday night.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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First question. Franklin is like a "Rope Tornado" right now.
Surface vortice is displaced from the Upper Vortice. I'm not a Met. Part of my theory on this has to do with the 'slope' of the trough moving through the area. I'm thinking that the trough is like a bulldozer blade. But, the blade doesn't go all the way to the surface. So, it's displaced the top of the storm and left the bottom in place.
NHC normally gives the surface location. Since that's normally the part we worry about the most. In this case I'm not sure.
But I'm going with the surface vortice location.
Best for Last.
NHC averages the storm movement of All storms. I believe it's over the last three position locations.
Remember last year. RECON had him turning 5 hours before the Advisories reflected that He Was turning.
All you had to do was plot the Vortex reports.
Charley started his turn around 7 AM. In other words. He went No further West at that time.
The Advisories didn't reflect the turn until around Noon or 1 PM.
Sometime your eyes play tricks on you. Long hours watching loops can do that too!
I prefer a 4 to 6 hour loop. Without enhancement. For movement. That's just my preference, though.
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Major7
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
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I was talking to my Dad earlier today and he mentioned something about the dust storm that came off from Africa a couple of days ago giving S. Florida some colorful sunrises. Does anyone know more about this phenomenom and when it should be coloring the sunrise? (Or did it already happen?)
Thanks.
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My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
I beg to differ. If you look at the visible sat from goes floater, the low level circulation is moving s/sw while the concentration of storms are moving se.
OK - turn on the lat/lon, and then go back to the last daylight shot where it is very easy to see the center of the LLC (23:15Z). Then take the edge of a piece of paper and line it up on the center and parallel to the lat line. You can clearly see the center moving SE from 23:15Z to 02:15Z, with no westward movement.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Steve
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Sunset was beautiful here. The sand dust reflects red rays in the color spectrum, so the sunsets will be more pink and red than they usually are in the Summer.
Fwiw, anyone checked out Africa lately? There are about 5 future named storms on the continent. The one I like the best is about 13N/32E. That's one of those ones that looks like it'll exit the coast as a named storm.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html
And here's a pretty funny depiction from S2K.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=69057
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I was talking to my Dad earlier today and he mentioned something about the dust storm that came off from Africa a couple of days ago giving S. Florida some colorful sunrises. Does anyone know more about this phenomenom and when it should be coloring the sunrise? (Or did it already happen?)
Thanks.
As long as there is still dust in the air you probably can see it again.
There is an interesting study someone did about the paintings of Turner capturing the many spectacular sunsets in Britain some time after the Krakatoa explosion.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The only mention I can find is in the TWD from tonight.
Checked Tampa, Melbourne and Miami NWS Forecast Discussions...No mention.
From the 8 PM EDT Trop. Weather Discussion-edited~danielw
W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO PANAMA
JAMAICA ALONG 81W/82W MOVING W 25 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS
SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE ACCELERATED AS IT MOVED THRU THE CARIBBEAN
WITH TSTMS SW OF GRAND CAYMAN LIKELY MARKING THE WAVE'S
POSITION. THIS WAVE IS ALSO THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST
BUT MOST OF THE DUST IS STILL IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF 17N83W.
CARIBBEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE OVER MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOST DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. DRY AIR WITH SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST IS SPREADING
W INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE THINNING A
BIT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
ATLANTIC...
VERY DRY AIR IS PRESENT W OF 45W IN THE DEEP TROPICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAHARAN DUST OUTBREAK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW S
OF THE RIDGE HAS ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT CONVECTION NEAR THE AND E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE.
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS MOST OF EASTERN ATLANTIC...
WITH MAIN CONCENTRATIONS S OF 23N W OF 42W AND N OF 17N E OF 40W
TO THE AFRICAN COAST.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 25 2005 03:49 AM)
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Yikes! What an amazing graphic. Looks like this is going to be "one of those years..." Guess we just have to get our C batteries, flashlights, and plywood and "hunker down." 
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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maybe you, im all clear hear on the island..just hot and humid
were hurricane free, right?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Polk City, FL
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Just for that Ryan, I hope all our hurricanes head toward Long Island. just kidding... though I'm sure the state of FL would be glad to send them your way.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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Quote:
maybe you, im all clear hear on the island..just hot and humid
were hurricane free, right?
As of this minute, there are no hurricanes heading in your direction.
However - Long Island has been hit by hurricanes in the past. It will happen again, eventually.
'shana
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Looks like the upper level circulation is stationary now and the lower level circulation going straight S.
Forecast did say the movement would be erratic but that eastward movement would resume. Guess morning will tell.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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Anyone else getting the visual that Franklin is really a slinky?????
'shana
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MC Hurricane
Registered User
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Loc: Newport News,VA
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The area of cloud cover off Florida looks like it could become at least a tropical depression before moving ashore. Here is the link:
National Hurricane Center
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Texas
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Quote:
The area of cloud cover off Florida looks like it could become at least a tropical depression before moving ashore. Here is the link:
National Hurricane Center
Dunno... I'm not good at that yet.  But the clouds over Austin look like they're somehow connected to Gert!
'shana
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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franklin finally quit moving northeast this afternoon. drifting south now, slowly weakening under northerly shear and from subsidence entrainment. the convection is still edging SE, so it may drag the LLC that way for a while; as the ridge moves eastward to the north the flow should turn NE and start to push franklin into some version of that loop BAMM has been sending it on for days. the severe version takes it back west into striking position of the SE coast; the consensus would keep it pretty close to where it is for the next couple of days. there' s a chance it dissipates in the next couple of days.. but not too great it'll get completely thrashed, and shear conditions should improve slowly late tomorrow/tuesday. it's interesting and quite a forecast problem, but more than likely not going to be much of a threat.
gert is inland, pretty much a rehash of bret back in late june. area to the north of landfall was recently doused by emily... this one isn't moving incredibly slow so flooding problems shouldn't be more than a nuisance.
future interests:
the weak trough across s. florida is still a focal point for scattered/moderate convection at times, but not developing right now. it'll take a sustained burst of convection to get something going at this point.. probably going to be a no-show. this area may linger for a couple days.
east of emily: a weak disturbance has been hanging on the tail of an old frontal boundary under northerly shear, intermittently firing convection. again, needs a sustained burst to do more than flounder.
near 14/54: broad cyclonic turning associated with the tropical wave/moisture plume that came off africa last week. atmosphere slowly becoming more moist.. a flowering of convection would make it interesting.
wave near 30w: moving along, good flare at the lead, cyclonic turning tailing, moving w behind it at a slightly higher latitude. models track as a wave, but the environment ahead is moderately ok.
over africa: long train of waves shown in that graphic steve posted earlier. probably a storm or two in there. maybe they'll develop early and recurve early.. considering that all 7 storms this season have affected land, it'd be nice to see a genuine fish spinner. develops the one emerging early this week and recurves it far out to sea.. typical. not completely infeasible since the atlantic ridge has a good, broad weakness in the western atlantic right now, that should be reinforced for the next few days. its mean position should back over the SE as per global models.. also showing a weakness near 45w that is probably overdoing.
anywho... harvey should be around before too much longer, way things are looking.
HF 0619z25july
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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What keeps the lower level circulation going when the upper level circulation is so distant? Asked a similar ? earlier today but no response. How do the two levels of circulation interact?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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