scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Yeah its funny now about franklin. He is wobbling alittle to the sw cause now the 2nd trough (very weak) isbypassing it. A stronger 1 will pick it up tomorrow. The said there will be erratic motions for the next 24 hrs. It would be interesting if he just crawled SW or SSW for 12 hours. Then he might be near 29N and 71W late tonight and tomorrow morning. LOL then the next trough might also not pick him up. Those chances are 10% right now.. so likeiin the movie dumb and dumber,,,yes franklin still does have a chance!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hehe.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I think he needs to remember to take his convection with him or there
won't be anything left.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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That's what we want isn't it?  Die Franklin DIE!
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
i'm not gonna get into it here or now, but unfortunately jim williams' site isn't entirely correct...we were clipped by Floyd ('99-met Cantore at Point Lookout), got seriously threatened by Isabel ('03) and received TS winds from ('04). we were also affected by almost every TS/HURR last year with either rain, winds or both...
this year, with the super-high SSTs, i'm very worried about the potential for a long-tracking CV storm to make it's way up here...
in a more appropriate thread, later this season, i will do a full Long Island threat/potential update
that thread would be grreeaatttt...thanks for all your help..i will tune in especially knowing how warm the water here is..i was in the LI sound a couple days ago..i thought it was pee that made that water so warm, darn SST's..lol well i hope if anything comes are way ever that its at most, a minimal cat 1 or 2 sotrm..even tho i live on the top of a hill, anyone else from LI and where?? :?:
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Mon Jul 25 2005 01:22 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I am a little confused, as always, as to how the keeps saying that Franklin will most likely be gone in a few days and it's moving towards the ENE-NE and some of you say it's going the opposite direction. I see the loop and it appears to have a wobble towards the SW, but the is not saying that. What am i missing here??
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT ITS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR
5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. A CONTINUED UNEVEN BUT GENERALLY
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
From the 5 am discussion
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I'd still rather be on Long Island than down here dealing with tropical stuff every other week. Any storm that may reach you would, in my opinion, be no stronger than what we Floridians know as "scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers". We get daily rain and thunderstorms down here that make most northerners cringe. Sometimes these storms are tropical storm strength, but without the low pressure area. We have gusts of 50-60mph during some of these "normal" afternoon storms. I hope you stay in the clear up there because it is possible i suppose for you to get a hurricane, but i wouldn't worry too much. Maybe it is the pee that makes LI Sound so warm!! LOL
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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pedro
Unregistered
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right know i wont call that an E/NE aw call it more of a south west motion very slowley
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Thanks Pam, i read that too, but it erractic movement doesn't mean SSW. Some are saying that it's already moving SSW, some have even been saying that since Friday night. Thanks for the information though!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Yeah, the way I am understanding it is..
That there isnt much out there now to pull it out, so its kinda sitting around waiting
on the next trough to take it away.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Pedro - I understand what you are saying and it makes sense, but why hasn't the acknowledged that? They say it's NE or ENE. SW would be backwards from where it is now.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Oh, i understand. Thanks again. Ready for the dust storm? That SAT view was cool as heck, did you see it??!! 
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Maybe maybe not
Unregistered
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Pressure dropping winds picking up.
575
URNT12 KNHC 251709
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/16:40:00Z
B. 31 deg 03 min N
069 deg 40 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 45 deg 109 nm
F. 116 deg 038 kt
G. 047 deg 051 nm
H. EXTRAP 999 mb
I. 23 C/ 223 m
J. 25 C/ 279 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0606A FRANKLIN OB 12
MAX FL WIND 52 KT E QUAD 15:21:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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pedro
Unregistered
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We are going to have to wait for the 5pm advisory may be something could change that we dont know yet
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Yes I saw a few of them in the past few days... it's weird cuz I have lived here
a good portion of my life (long time) and I don't remember hearing about them
before. Goes to show how much attention I was paying, huh?
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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max flight winds found in the east quad. that would indicate a wesward movement, right?
Not necessarily. In general, the maximum winds are found to the right of the storm's motion -- which, given the ENE movement, would tend to favor from the ENE to WSW part of the storm. The east quadrant is in that range. Convection can also play a big role and, given the current convective pattern, it is not a big surprise to see the strongest winds on the east side of the storm. Doesn't have any implication towards the motion, however. --Clark
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by Clark (Mon Jul 25 2005 01:59 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Me too! I have never gone out to my car and found red dust on it or my plants and flowers. The only crud on the car is love bugs and thats usually in May.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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MC Hurricane
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Newport News,VA
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There is a disturbance moving off the South America coast moving into the east pacific. It looks like it might cross Central America again. Here is the link:
Infrared Image
That's just convection that fired up over land, partially triggered by a tropical wave massage, partially by the standard convective cycle. Not a threat for development in either basin...which I note because the title of your post is rather misleading. --Clark
Edited by Clark (Mon Jul 25 2005 02:01 PM)
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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How about a little chit-chat about the tropics?
Gert is raining on Mexico and gone as far as a tropical system is concerned.
Franklin is in the process of doing a loop, a mini one at that. Really getting away from the convection, getting sheared to death. Wasn't there a storm a few years back that just sat almost in the same place as a named storm for a couple of weeks? He's been in no hurry to develop, move or die. Somebody tell him his 15 minutes are up!
Wave between 50-60 W has a few storms today, but was dealt a crappy hand. Franklin to the NW, all tangled up in a dust storm, and too far from the ITZ to draw some energy from it. It's purpose in life seems to be to clear the way for our next two features.
Wave at 30W has a 1014 mb low with it, so yes it is turning on a broad scale. But no, it has no LLC. I've seen nothing, but I could be wrong, about the wave(huge!!) that just cleared the African coast having a low with it. IMO I think if we get a storm, it's going to be one storm. They seem too close for both of them to develop.
I sure do hope we stay on topic here. I love this site, but the last two years I have quit coming here when this site got kinda freaked out. It's not a chat room, but more like a class room where you have a chance to gather your thoughts and write them out (as best you can) to share with people who enjoy the same subject, which happens to be the tropics.
A last note about Franklin; he looks like he has really split apart!! But then the has said that some models kept taking a piece here, a piece there. We shall see.....
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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What is the ITZ? I am new here and hear that used a lot. Can you explain what it is? Thanks!
The is the intertropical convergence zone, where the trade winds converge near or north of the equator. It is where convection can often be found and is approximately a conduit by which tropical waves can move across the oceans. --Clark
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by Clark (Mon Jul 25 2005 02:06 PM)
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