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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2856
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic
      #45406 - Mon Jul 25 2005 10:50 PM

10:15PM Update 26.July
Two, perhaps three waves in the east Atlantic are worth watching, currently the middle one (referred to as 93L) is the most impressive looking, but any of the first two may form into another depression later into this week or the weekend.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Franklin continues to hold together this evening, moving nearly due east
after reforming its center. The current motion has forced the hurricane center to issue a tropical storm watch for Bermuda. The track still takes it away from the island, however, but the uncertainty with the system has been fairly high.

Gert made landfall as a Tropical Storm in Mexico, and is now raining more rain on an area already flooded by Emily.



Across the Atlantic, several tropical waves are making their way westward, including several over Africa now. Most will fall apart after leaving the coast, but a few may hold together and strengthen as it crosses the central atlantic ocean.

Nothing is expected to develop there for a few days at least.

The fact we are on the G storm name in July still amazes me.


Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.

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Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin

Wave in East Atlantic (Aka 92L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L)
Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)

Wave in Even Further East Atlantic (Aka 93L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L)
Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45407 - Mon Jul 25 2005 10:54 PM

This is a repost from the last thread.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005 edited~danielw

FRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING. A NEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING AROUND EACH OTHER. THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE MOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN
THIS ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY CENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/260235.shtml

Edited by danielw (07/25/05 09:50 PM)


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jbmusic
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45411 - Mon Jul 25 2005 11:06 PM

Here is a link to a few pictures I took tonight from Manatee Beach The Sand storm has definitly made its way this far north as is apparent by our sunset tonight

http://www.pbase.com/b_bphotography/sand_storm_sunset

--------------------
Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com


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Major7
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 37
Loc: Hollywood, FL 26.02N/80.20W a...
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: jbmusic]
      #45412 - Mon Jul 25 2005 11:10 PM

Very nice. Thank you.

--------------------
My experiences:
Betsy 1965~New Orleans (my first)
Alicia 1983~Texas; Opal 1995~Georgia;
Frances & Jeanne 2004~Florida;
Dennis, Eye of Katrina, Eyewall of Wilma~Florida 2005


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joepub1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Major7]
      #45413 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:14 AM

Give Franklin credit. He sure has kept us looking while doing, well, very little. He's stayed weak, covered very little ocean, and really bothered nobody. Now he's doing circles around himself . I think I worked with him once or twice. He can't even get a date in the North Atlantic, poor guy.

Wave just east of the islands must be related. It's puny little cloud tops are getting sheared, in part, by Franklin . No future for that kid either.
Wave between 30-40W has a shot. It's low is, well, low. But if that's good news for development, it's bad news in the long run, for if it does get wound up, it's going to be pretty far south, and the last last year or two these storms just won't go to the fish. It would also be close to, on top of, or past the islands, another not so good sign down the road for the rest of us. If I remember, the parade of storms ('95?) formed very early in the eastern Atlantic, and most curved out to the big pond. The longer these things wait, the harder it is to shake them off. The wave behind it at about 15W looks good, but everything just seems too close together in this area to make head and tails of it.

So other than Franklin, it seems it would be at least thursday before even an invest might be put out on something else. A couple of days. Isn't that what we said right after Emily got done with Mexico......


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: joepub1]
      #45414 - Tue Jul 26 2005 12:32 AM

Quote:

So other than Franklin, it seems it would be at least thursday before even an invest might be put out on something else. A couple of days. Isn't that what we said right after Emily got done with Mexico......




The latest GFS agrees with your summary.
In fact, it shows a 1012 mb Low near 10 N/ 41 W on Saturday at 06Z.
The main item in this area is the Low to the east of this.
Near 43 N/ 35 W. Depicted as a 1009mb Low with 2 closed isobars at the surface. 850mb Vorticity, Is picking this up, and I see a small reflection of the larger Low in the 500mb Vorticity product.

BTW- THis GFS round, dissipates Franklin well east of the DelMarVa Peninsula. Looks to be east of the "Benchmark", too.


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45417 - Tue Jul 26 2005 02:06 AM

franklin appears to be recovering this evening. some of the globals forecasted shear to decrease and they appear to have scored. the mid layer ridge nearby franklin is fluid and will probably result in an erratic path... globals track has been bending left over time and may end up being west of north for a spell.. but it's unlikely franklin will get back to within striking distance of the u.s. coastline. as a parting action it may deepen some now that environmental conditions are improving.. not likely to do more than that.
the wave between 30-35w has me worried. very good signature on this wave, and a development trend seems to be underway. if it develops the scenario most of the globals have for it is a rebuilt ridge near the east coast with a weakness digging behind it over the east atlantic, and another weakness retrograding over the southeast. GFS shows its signature arriving at the southeast u.s. around august 2nd/3rd. the trailing wave near 20w develops on some global runs but turns up near 40w into the eastern weakness (a deep layer cutoff low on several models, the type which may become a hybrid feature in its own right). less significant is the weak wave/trough near 55w currently which is sporadically blowing convection. probably not a development threat as things currently stand.
with the progged weakness in the eastern u.s., wave energy in the nw caribbean will have the tendency to collect, though no model is suggesting more than shortwave induced impulses over land. numerous tropical waves are advancing across africa... the sort of configuration which promises at least a tropical cyclone or two in the deep tropics east of the islands over the next week or two.. and potentially more.
HF 0705z26july


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 439
Loc: Tampa
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45419 - Tue Jul 26 2005 05:55 AM

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

...CORRECTED TO DENOTE ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE IN TABLE... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT COULD OTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS SUPPORTED BY 06Z Dvorak INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS LONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE INITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45421 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:16 AM

The wave emerging West Africa now is the one I am looking closely as it is at a low latitud and seems to have a spin to it.Safe to say that the CV season will very soon open it's gates.

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl 28.27N 82.65W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #45425 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:00 AM

I just checked the Navy site and they are showing 92L invest.
Does anyone have info on this?

Thanks,
Dotty


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Hootowl]
      #45426 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:11 AM

I think that is the wave around 40 in the atlantic

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45427 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:14 AM

or I guess it is closer to 30 or 35

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45428 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:18 AM

What is the navy web site?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45429 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:19 AM

looks more like 12N 28W or thereabouts

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45430 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:20 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #45431 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:20 AM

Quote:

What is the navy web site?




Navy Site

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: LI Phil]
      #45432 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:21 AM

yes i was just looking at that closer, seems a sort of circulation is about
12N 28W. was trying to match that up with clark's blog from early this a.m.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45433 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:28 AM

What/who is Clark's blog? Still learning here..........

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser]
      #45434 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:30 AM

Clark is one of the Mets here... On the top left of this page it says in the list....Met Blogs
click it and read the first one

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: NewWatcher]
      #45435 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:54 AM

Getting ready for the shuttle, just thankful Franklin stayed away to allow the launch. Almost a half an hour to go.

Kind of hazy here today. Not the norm. Anyone in Polk seeing it other than me? Wondering if it has anything to do with that sand...didn't think we would get any affects but, it is just a strange haze when you look towards the sun's direction. To the west it is clear blue skies.

Looks like an awesome day for a launching.


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