Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Quote:
I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
According to this: http://www.broward.org/disaster/epi00304.pdf if you are West of US 1 you're OK.
Thanks for the link.I am east of US1,in the plan B zone.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Well guess since JB couldn't get a direct hit on New Orleans guess he would try his luck somewhere else hummmmm like up the East coast?
New Orleans was never a direct target. Despite the mouth of the River call for , we're probably as close to Gulfport and Biloxi as we are to the mouth of the River. The Louisiana zone was only progged to 13 points, and we have already scored 6 or 7 on his scale (having either 2 tropical storms or 1 tropical storm and 1 cane depending on how one views Cindy - the damage was Cat 1). His highest impact to start the season was AL/MS/NWFL which sustained 2 hits - Cat 3 and strong Tropical Storm - as well as additional likely TD conditions from Cindy. FWIW, his new video still shows 6 points for the LA zone for the year. And that adds up to either effects from 3 tropical storms or a Cat 1 and a TS. We'll see.
But you bring up a good point. That 28 points for the Carolina zone is absurd. A landfalling Cat 4 scores 32 points, and he's giving it cumulative 28. Thats' a lot of tropical action and BIG action at that (even if some of those points are scored via a system coming up from the Gulf and across the Southeast).
I was amazed that he was willing to up his intensity scale beyond last year's total which was nearly a fluke in itself. He's going out on a pretty big limb even if the setup for the rest of the season would lead one to believe that the US Coast is a target. We absorbed many landfalls last year - some pretty strong ones too - so we'll see as time marches on.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The highest recorded storm surge in the US was Camille..a catagory 5 who's winds I believe were 170 mph. It was 21 feet and traveled 1-2 miles inland.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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My plan (which I hope I will not have to use)is to stock up my car,and go to a parking garage downtown.And will bring my camcorder.I will have to find a place to put my furnture,not sure where yet.But this will only be for a cat 3 or higher,I will stay at home for a cat 1 or 2.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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phil i was kidding..trying to get peoples minds off how flipping busy this season will be..sorry
and you say a lot of things pointing to the northeast..all i see is the above normal SST's..what else..enlighten me
your starting to scare me that somethings going down..very soon
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 02:37 AM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...
92L is still 2 - 3 days from developing, if at all, and still a week away from becoming any threat to land. 93L is even farther away. I don't see the possibility of a threat to Florida until after next week, if even then.
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Michael
PWS
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
I don't see a threat to Florida in the near future.
I'm afraid I'm going to have to disagree here. If by immediate you mean within 3-4 days, no... I don't see a threat either, however if by immediate you mean within the next week-week and a half, with three waves out there, Florida definitely has an immediate threat. The Atlantic is not exactly quiet now Michael...
im gonna have to go with the big red machine on that one Michael..
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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I feel that Florida is unlikely to be hit before mid August, that being said, looking long range Mid Aug. to end of Sept.......The South East Coast of Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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what makes you think that?..i mean they could get hit early august..
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
I feel that Florida is unlikely to be hit before mid August, that being said, looking long range Mid Aug. to end of Sept.......The South East Coast of Florida could be under the gun for a Cat 3 or 4.
What makes you think that?I am very interested to say the least.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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This year is uncertain for sure however I would not venture a guess that Florida would not be hit ... There are many waves ,storms and hurricanes to follow if the trend continues as it is. I remeber last year wondering if the season would ever start and this year we are looking forward to the end. September 15 is the height of the season and we have a little over 50 days yet to reach that point. Keep your eyes open and continue to watch.. It is when we don't watch that we all get ourselves into trouble by letting down our guard. We should never close our eyes to the unknown of the season. Certainly we would all like to see a gentle year with no more loss of lives or personal lost. Be alert to the season and respect it.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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amen to that
-- Edited by Mod
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Jul 28 2005 12:07 PM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I am no MET, in fact i am a total novice about hurricanes, BUT, if i lived in/on Long Island, C.T, R.I, or Mass, i wouldn't be worried about hurricanes. Since Gloria, how many storms have you had hit there? I mean really, how many direct hits has LI, NYC, or any other New England city taken in the last 20 years? I am sorry if i am sounding like this, but i live in Florida which means pretty much every wave that comes off the African coast is of major concern to me and my family. I wish i lived on LI or any where in the northeast. You don't know how lucky you are. So please........perhaps you could tone it down a notch or two. In my defense, i and others on this site have a heck of a lot more to worry about as far as hurricanes are concerned. Just sit back and relax, maybe go out to Montauk Point and take a swim in that warmer water. Sorry for the attitude, but this is almost like a billionaire complaining that he didn't hit the lottery. If this post is to be removed, so be it and i understand, but i just had to say something. Do others on here feel like this guy from LI is over reacting a little?
BTW - Gloria's eye passed right over my house in Winsted, Connecticut. I was 12 years old. The storm blew down an apple tree in our yard and we never lost power.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Thu Jul 28 2005 02:27 AM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Bob:
After 45 yrs at sea in the US Navy, retired as an Capt. Think I seen more Storms then most on here, anyhow to answer your question it's more of a gut feel looking at the long range weather forecasts.. No hard facts.
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
I am no MET, in fact i am a total novice about hurricanes, BUT, if i lived in/on Long Island, C.T, R.I, or Mass, i wouldn't be worried about hurricanes. Since Gloria, how many storms have you had hit there? I mean really, how many direct hits has LI, NYC, or any other New England city taken in the last 20 years? I am sorry if i am sounding like this, but i live in Florida which means pretty much every wave that comes off the African coast is of major concern to me and my family. I wish i lived on LI or any where in the northeast. You don't know how lucky you are. So please........perhaps you could tone it down a notch or two. In my defense, i and others on this site have a heck of a lot more to worry about as far as hurricanes are concerned. Just sit back and relax, maybe go out to Montauk Point and take a swim in that warmer water. Sorry for the attitude, but this is almost like a billionaire complaining that he didn't hit the lottery. If this post is to be removed, so be it and i understand, but i just had to say something. Do others on here feel like this guy from LI is over reacting a little?
BTW - Gloria's eye passed right over my house in Winsted, Connecticut. I was 12 years old. The storm blew down an apple tree in our yard and we never lost power.
seriously i wouldnt be on here if i didnt care dont think storms dont affect me
hurricane Andrew destroyed my apartment outside of miami and jeanna tore the roof of my condo..dont tell me that i shud relax i have a house in orlando and a condo in stuart that jsut got fixed from jeanne so scuse you for tlaking like that becuase i shud worry just as much and dont think i dont have any symptahy are you kidding..my family would have been ruined if we didnt evacuate before jeanne tore the rook off..i mean my life aint so sunshine and roses buddy
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 02:40 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Living where I do now,But also having lived in R.I.,I have to say there is big difference as far as worrying about hurricanes go.But I went through some bad storms up there,Bob was the last one and it did alot of damage in R.I.I see your point,But the whole east coast needs to have a plan and pay attention.And they are due up there.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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thank you bob
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 02:40 AM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Old Sailor - Let me see if i understand what people are saying. Because of the position of the Bermuda high, there is a slim chance that yes, hurricanes and or TS's will hit florida, but there is also a chance, better than last year, that these storms will go north? I read about that...what do you think?
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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as much as you made me a little angry, i thinkt he bermuda high is "deflecting" storms north thats why the carolinas is the numero uno on "the list" you dont want to be on
truce kiddo?
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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