laxpimpj
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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This may sound dumb, but I am still relatively new to all of this stuff...
but...
How do they come up with the 93L, 92L, 94L, etc...
What is it couting up from? and the L?
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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maybe the "L" is for low pressure.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Don't quote me on that 10-20 year thing Ryan, but i read an article, provided by a user on this site a few weeks ago. It was a damn good article too...i can't remember who sent me the link on it; perhaps they will see this post and put the link out again. If they do, read it! It's full of very useful information about the tropics - past, present, and future. If the guy who gave me that link sees this, can you post it again?!
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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The reason i say 10-20 years is because thats what the article was saying. From 1970-1994 the atlantic was fairly quiet during hurricane season. From 1995 until ???? it's expected to be rather active. You have to see the article.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:25 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The "L" stands for Atlantic. The numbers for invests are assigned from 90-99, starting out at 90 at the start of the year and looping back to 90 after 99. Why they chose those is uncertain, but it's partially to keep from interfering with any actual storm numbers.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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laxpimpj
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 13
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"The reason i say 10-20 years is because thats what the article was saying. From 1970-1994 the atlantic was fairly quiet during hurricane season. From 1995 until ???? it's expected to be rather active. You have to see the article. "
are you talking about "the case against florida"?
EDIT:
Thanks Clark
Edited by laxpimpj (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:27 PM)
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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ok
take a look http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html -->> was just updated, even tho it says 1 PM
which one is the best model on here http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:28 PM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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what do u guys think 92L invest is going to do
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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Quote:
what do u guys think 92L invest is going to do
become a TD in the next 24-48 hrs and a TS in the next 36..i think it may become a minimal hurricane before the bahamas..then it will pass right ovr the Bahamas either into northeastern coastal florida or georgia, maayybbee the carolinas but i think thats looking a little less favorable.
what do people think about that statement i made
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 08:34 PM)
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Thanks Clark for the reply.
One more thing I'd like to see - it was mentioned before on here that there's been a trackable tropical system every day since July 1st, nearly a full month without a lull. What would it take to create a video clip (Javascript or even a huge GIF) of the basin over the course of the past month? Has anybody here been archiving, or could somebody link to an officially-run archive where I could patch something like this together myself?
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[witty phrase here]
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL
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I am afraid to say that I do agree with you on this one.
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I say Anywhere from Central Florida to the Florida Straights into GOM. I think is going to be a good one. Check out my attachment.... illistration of my explination....
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Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim
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RyanRedCross1
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hey Nathan,
From Boynton Beach too.. work for the Greater Palm Beach Area Chapter Red Cross... so I'm watching this "probable" storm and it looks like a biggie...
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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92L appears to have a bereft of moisture, convection, and is being steered westward under the influence of a large well developed cyclone over the NE Bahamas. A anticyclone is building to the west of 92L and marks the end of the Saharan dust. This will aid in divergence as the outflow jet builds NE of the system. The track of 92L is vague at best, some take the system westward while others turn recurve it, but with the fact that Typhoon Baynan recurved and a ridge east of Hawaii leads me to believe that a more westward track is favored. Also there is a natural bias to recurve anything in the long range by the global’s (gfs,gfdl, and tertiary models). Heat oceanic content is surely suffice to support development, with an area of anomalously warm SSTS centered around 26N 65W ranging from 29.5 C to 31 C (!). Certainly warm. Cyclone phase analysis doesn’t have much to say, with basically a WNW track over the next 48 hours becoming a depression, and organizing into a moderately symmetrical warm core system. Not much different from what we thought. Unfortunately too far out to assume anything, but I still think this will be a more Florida GOM threat then a CV recurver.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
Edited by Keith234 (Thu Jul 28 2005 09:52 PM)
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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This is meant for 92 L not 93 L. Looked at the right disturbance for the analysis, but then changed it to 93L when I was proofreading. Sorry about that.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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AgentB
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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I don't think there is "one best model". There are some that do perform better than others throughout the season, but the input/calculations change before each season. Thus this early into the season, eventhough it's been busy, it's hard to say which one will predict the motion of this storm the best. Plus, the fact that it's not even an organized tropical cyclone makes it all the more difficult.
Personally, I can see it becoming a TS or even a hurricane, but it's still too far out to predict movement or even landfall.
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Check the Surf
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Something to think about, Yesterday was the 2nd shark attack within a week at Daytona Beach.....
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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And this means??????
besides stay out of the water lol
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
Edited by NewWatcher (Thu Jul 28 2005 09:29 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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They do say there is something to a Strom vs. where shark attacks happen.
Before Hurricane Destin had an Shark attract then PC had one, Also Emily there was an shark attack lower Texas... Guess you need to ask the sharks..
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST OUTLOOK HAS THIS FEATURE...WHATEVER STRENGTH IT HAPPENS TO MANIFEST INTO...PULLING CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LIFTING ON A SLOWER PACE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THURSDAY.
Welcome to this site my Boynton Beach neighbors, hopefully it's from the plug I gave this site in the newspaper.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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