F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | >> (show all)
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: 92L [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45690 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:35 PM

yea debbie i mean thats one of the main reasons im hear to educate myself, god forbid, if this is our time you know?

what do you think of the 92L model i posted a little while ago?

-Ryan

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Goosus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Natural Disasters [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45691 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:36 PM

What are they afraid of in Boise Idaho?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: MikeC]
      #45692 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:41 PM Attachment (141 downloads)

I attached the most recent IR of the Eastern Atlantic what are your thoughts on these waves. I noticed in 92L a large flare up on the northern end of the waver that seems to be pretty persistent. 93L is does not have as much convection but, seems to be holding together pretty well. Lastly the wave behind 93L is still holdng together also. What do we have to look out for tomorrow and what has to happen for any of these waves to develope? Thanks....

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Natural Disasters [Re: Goosus]
      #45693 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:41 PM

me, no idk tornadoes, snow..idk

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45694 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:43 PM

Quote:

I attached the most recent IR of the Eastern Atlantic what are your thoughts on these waves. I noticed in 92L a large flare up on the northern end of the waver that seems to be pretty persistent. 93L is does not have as much convection but, seems to be holding together pretty well. Lastly the wave behind 93L is still holdng together also. What do we have to look out for tomorrow and what has to happen for any of these waves to develope? Thanks....




http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

^^thats 92L look where the models are taking it..looks northward what are your thoughts on this one WX Storm 2005, and others?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work [Re: Steve]
      #45695 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:44 PM

Steve I am one of those people that is just a bit nervous. Hurricanes are new to me I have lived here for only 3 years. Having 2 hurricanes make landfall in my area in less than three weeks was too much for me. I think someone told me that PSL had not been hit in about 40 years until last year anyone know if that is trues?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: Ryan]
      #45697 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:51 PM Attachment (176 downloads)

Well my initial thoughts looking the Water Vapor loop is that there is a persistant cry area to the south of the convection which is not helping development. Secondly there is a ridge of high pressure that is forcast to strenghten above 92L. If this ridge intensifies and moves more south and westward then we would be looking at a situation where it would move this wave more toward the East Coast. Attached is the GFS sea level pressure at hour 0 which shows what I am talking about. Long range and intesity is usually never good on forcast models. My instinct would tell me that if this convection persists and the dry air relaxs towards the west we could be looking at a possible TD in 24-48 hours to worry about.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: What are your thoughts for tomorrow? [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45698 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:53 PM

i will most definatley be wathcign this little buger

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #45699 - Thu Jul 28 2005 12:03 AM

I understand Debbie. 2004 was a wakeup call for a lot of people that now call Florida home. Because of what they refer to as the Multi Decadal Cycle (has to do with ocean warming) that we're in now (last one lasted from the 40's through the 60's), there will be a lot more hits than even us coastal long-timers are used to. These cycles last from perhaps 20-50 years, and we've apparently been in this one since 1995 after a lull from 1970-1994ish. Storms are a fact of life. There is no defense against them, so it's on us as individuals and heads of households to learn how to prepare for and deal with them. The best advice I could ever give anyone is to heed whatever warnings the NHC and your local NWS puts out. If they say "get", then get. Often times it will be a false alarm, but a day or two of inconvenience due to a false alarm is better than making funeral arrangements. I know I'm whacked in the head with hurricanes, and my wife absolutely loathes and fears them (and thinks I'm a complete idiot when it comes to following the tropics), but I get nervous just like you and most other people do. But my fascination tempered with the anticipation for the possible extremes gives rise to irrational behavior (e.g. wanting to see what storm 'x' has to offer). In a way, it's like the proverbial train wreck. You know it's bad, but I gotta look anyway. Twisted? Probably.

But you're at one of the best places on the web to learn about this stuff. And your two storms last year probably prepared you a bit for what lies ahead and what might be the upper limit your home and nerves can handle.

Ryan,

I don't know about 92L. I really don't have any thoughts on it yet. I'm just watching.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work [Re: Steve]
      #45700 - Thu Jul 28 2005 12:33 AM

Steve- I agree 100% that this site is the greatest, I found it by chance last year before Frances and have been coming back since then. I learned so much last year and value all the info you guys put out there. Thanks and keep up the great job.What sanity I have is because of this site and the fact I can now follow these storms and better prepare myself if need be. During hurricane season my computer is logged on to this site and my tv is on the weather station

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: models [Re: Ryan]
      #45702 - Thu Jul 28 2005 12:40 AM

Quote:

http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html

look at that..dont you think thats a little to far north..and they have it intensifying in kts..what are peoples inputs on this

info apreciated

-Ryan




Ryan
Thats the XTRP model which to me is usless. It's just one thrown in there for good measure. The GFDL GFS UKMET NOGAPS are the models to look at. Maybe the ECMC and the FSU MM5

Edited by Hurricane Fredrick 1979 (Thu Jul 28 2005 12:41 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45703 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:16 AM

o0o ok thnaks..i wills till be watching like i always do just in case

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Goosus
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45704 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:38 AM

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I always took "XTRP" in the spaghetti models to be short hand for "extrapolate", as in they're drawing a straight line from where the storm is to what direction it's moving at last recon.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: models [Re: Goosus]
      #45705 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:45 AM

Quote:

Maybe I'm an idiot, but I always took "XTRP" in the spaghetti models to be short hand for "extrapolate", as in they're drawing a straight line from where the storm is to what direction it's moving at last recon.




Yea thats what it is. Like I said useless. Knowing the storm is not going to go in a "STRAIGHT" line. ANd if you notice the models may go a little to the right or to the left of the line the XTRP will go 200 miles either way. When I run my models I dont include the XTRP model.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45706 - Thu Jul 28 2005 01:51 AM

As an aside, XTRP is just extrapolated motion. It is basically the recent motion of the wave extrapolated linearly to 5 days. I wouldn't pay it any mind.

In the tropics, Franklin is hanging on -- shouldn't get to hurricane status like was insinuated earlier today, but might strengthen a little more. These sheared storms are difficult to classify, even given Dvorak estimates, because we don't have recon going out there into the storm. QuikSCAT and microwave imagery helps for winds and structure, but even they have their limitations. It could be stronger than the satellite appearance if the past trends when recon flights were out there still hold true, or it could be weaker. Nevertheless, 50mph seems about right.

92L has seen the convection consolidate a bit on its northern edge with a corresponding tightening of the inner-core rotation. It's getting closer to being able to develop, but it's not there yet. Give it another couple of days. It still has some dry air to deal with on its western periphery, getting ingested from the SW into the main part of the feature, and is in a region of relatively high wind shear. This should weaken in the medium-range as the wave moves west. Any motion should keep it moving west or just slightly north of due west, potentially affecting the islands in a day or two.

93L is on the downswing convection-wise again, but the mid-level feature remains. If it can spit up some convection and keep it, as I've been maintaining for a couple of days now, it could get going at a pretty decent clip. It doesn't have as much model support, but I chalk that up to its small size plus the feature being primarily at the midlevels as opposted to the surface. As long as it doesn't get caught up in the flow around 92L, it should start to fire up in a day or so. Thursday isn't looking likely for a categorized storm, but I'll be mildly surprised if we don't see a depression out of this by sometime over the weekend. It too should head west, likely ending up as a Caribbean system in time.

It's way too early to tell what either 92L or 93L might bring towards the US. There is a trough about to reach to eastern coast and a couple of upper-lows in the SW Atlantic and near the Yucutan; this may or may not change over the next 5 days. The trough may linger near the Gulf coast, always bringing the threat for some development with it, but I'm not convinced it'll be strong enough to get down there -- it's already starting to elongate east-west with little forcing in the western US/upstream to push the southern end along. Still, it remains something to watch, both for the Gulf Stream and Gulf itself.

Some energy is trying to slip out of the trough currently to the north of 92L, but I'm not sure anything is going to be able to cut off in the ridge and develop. We'll know by later today what's going to happen there, if anything.

More as events warrant...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: models [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #45707 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:02 AM

As another heads-up, tropical-wise, the FSU Superensemble has been the best performing model for two years running. Of course, it's not publically available, so we can't use the output to make forecasts...only the NHC can. The NOGAPS model was best in 2002 and has remained near the top ever since; the UKMET was best in 2001 yet has been one of the worst since then. It was negatively influenced by 1 storm in 2002, but no such excuses can be made for the past two years. The UK Met Office apparently made some changes to the model during that time which hasn't resulted quite as favorably as they would've hoped or expected. The GFS is always near the middle of the pack, while the GFDL is similar (it's run off of the GFS initial conditions). The GFDN, or the GFDL run off of the NOGAPS initial conditions, generally performs slightly better. Both are usually either too low or too high with intensity. The Canadian (CMC) and European Center (ECMWF) models aren't run as much for tropical activity, though the latter does quite well and the former has its moments...particularly with recurving storms.

On a global scale, the ECMWF model has been the best for some time. The UKMET model is up there as well, as is the Japanese (JMA) model. The GFS is towards the middle-end of the pack as far as global models go, but improving. Note that many of the tropical models are just mesoscale models -- this includes the GFDL and various flavors of both the WRF and MM5, plus all of the steering layer (e.g. BAM-series, LBAR, A98E) and statistical (e.g. CLIPER) models -- and thus not relevant to this part of the discussion.

In this decade, the dynamical models (GFS, GFDL, ECMWF, UKMET, and so on) heavily outperform the limited-area/statistical-dynamical models (BAM-series, LBAR, etc.) and are even better than the statistical/persistence models. This wasn't always the case. Until the mid-90s, when the global models improved in the tropics to the point of relevancy, the statistical-dynamical models were relied upon for track and intensity forecasting; back into the 80s and prior, it was down to forecaster experience, looking at the flow regimes (as best as they could tell from water vapor; satellite analyses such as the UWisconsin products weren't around back then), and the statistical/persistence models. Kinda funny how we've come full circle, with a statistical model (FSU Superensemble) at the head of the pack, though it really is better classified as a dynamical model with statistical modifications.

Obviously, models change from year to year (and occasionally more frequently than that), whether in terms of their resolution, the physics they employ, or even how they ingest data. That's why it's important to use past performance as just a tool until you can determine how a given model is doing with any given storm or any given season/environmental regime. It's also why the FSU Superensemble -- heavily based upon prior model performance -- tends to struggle early in the season; the changes in the model aren't always able to be accounted for, making the first few storms' forecasts not as accurate as they could be.

Hope this sheds some light on the model questions...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
rehash and additions [Re: Clark]
      #45709 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:12 AM

i'm going to guess that the fun starts friday.
clark covered 92/93 in the same sort of fashion i would. well... with a more professional touch. my guess is that 92L will have consolidated enough to develop by friday.. 93L may reach the threshold around the same time (really whenever it gets east of the upper easterly jet which is shearing it). 92L will probably develop very close to the northern leewards, 93L will be on a lower trajectory. 92L is the larger threat to the u.s. in about a week, dependent on how stable the western periphery of the ridge is around that time.
clark mentioned the gulf feature... similar take here.. a whole scatter of models see it differently, and many keep it close enough to land that its offshore development window would be sort of sketchy. an impulse rotating offshore la on the back side of that 500mb weakness or a wave on whatever is left of the front offshore would have to be the culprit.
three other mentionables for a total of six. notice the piece of wave energy that was trackable from the large wave that lead the moisture surge off africa... moving northwest of puerto rico. this will feed into the 500mb weakness in franklin's wake near the bahamas and several models are showing development riding up the eastern seaboard that is potentially a propagation of this feature... we may have a close-in development this weekend running roughly from the bahamas to nc/sc to nantucket.
next is the wave trailing 93L.. it's fairly robust, just not as far along as the others. various globals are tracking/developing it. it'll won't happen before next week, though.
other thing is the complex deep layer system forecast to develop around 30n/45-50w. globals run all sorts of features out of this to several different compass points.. and use it as a weakness to draw up 93L and it's trailer. i'm more convinced the trailer will catch the lift than 93L will... maybe both. this may make a run at hybrid development, and may cause the western periphery of the ridge to amplify (i.e. turn up whatever is trying to come underneath it near the east coast).
anyhow, very active setup we have here. 2-3 storms likely to emerge out of it, outside shot at 4. this weekend/next week things ought to get pretty interesting.
HF 0712z28july


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: Natural Disasters [Re: Goosus]
      #45711 - Thu Jul 28 2005 05:22 AM

Debbie: In Boise they fear the cold, blizzards and STRANGERS...

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: storm surge? [Re: pcola]
      #45714 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:27 AM

Camille's surge was more than 21 feet... I had 22 feet at my house in Biloxi and I was about 19 miles or so east of the center .... my house has been surveyed to be 20 feet above sea level... water marks were 2 feet high in my house from Camille... The house I was living in at the time on the point in Biloxi was 17 feet above sea level... we had 5 feet of water in that house... I was in it at the time... you don't forget something like that... that house is another 7 miles east of where my present house is and 26 miles from the center... I've read reports that the surge was as high as 25-27 feet above sea level just east of where the eye went inland near Bay St. Louis MS... Camille's surge was unbelievable and was the greatest contributor to the massive and total destruction along the MS coast and subsequent loss of lives....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
COgal
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Lake County FL
Re: models [Re: Clark]
      #45715 - Thu Jul 28 2005 07:34 AM

Cany anyone give the best links to the available models?
Thanks!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 297 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 66800

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center