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Low Pressure east of the Caribbean Islands (93L) looking less impressive today, chances for development are dropping.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 26 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3201 (8 y 9 m) (Wilma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: 92L Track [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45802 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:08 PM

Big Red Machine,

You're quite right the 12Z GFS doesn't develop it but keeps it a trop wave...these global models aren't real good at that...however, it doesn't move it out to sea..it puts it off the SE coast of FL..what's more important though is the Ridge to the north...it weakens due to a trough lifting through NE but looks like it's building back the last 12-24 hours of the model run

--------------------
RJB


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Ryan]
      #45803 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:10 PM

its all good. I like to hear everyones ideas. Some just wish the storms would hit but at the same time say I hope it dont come to me.. but its all good cause alot here love to see the storm but we dont want damage and deaths.
Anyways the area discussions are on the front page. West Central Florida has kinda what I said now and Im sure S florida and E Central will come out soon too.

scottsvb


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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: 92L Track [Re: Ron Basso]
      #45804 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:26 PM

Thanks Ron, didn't see that. That's what I get for being a novice Found this interesting

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
143 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 31 2005 - 12Z THU AUG 04 2005


SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PD...
AS FOR THE TROPICAL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH AHEAD OF THE
EVER-WEAKER TROUGH PROGRESSING THRU CNTRL CAN AND A DVLPG WEAKNESS
IN THE UPR PATTERN IN THE CNTRL/WRN GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT IF THERE WAS AN ORGANIZED TC...THAT IT WOULD
RETROGRADE INTO FL OR THE SOUTHEAST US SOMETIME BETWEEN AUG 3-5.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS THE 12Z UKMET WAS THE FARTHEST NE...
LEAVING THE SYSTEM JUST NE OF THE BAHAMAS. MADE SLIGHT CHANGES IN
THAT DIRECTION FROM CONTINUITY PER COORDINATION W/TPC...WHICH IS
CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45805 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:34 PM

that was an intersting discussion

Edit - let's halt talk about specific location strikes please

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Thu Jul 28 2005 03:08 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45806 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:39 PM

The main vortex is near 16.5N and 57 W. The area to its NE is the midlevel low. You can see this clearly on close-up vis.

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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Deltona, FL 28.92N 81.22W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #45807 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:44 PM

what close up vis are you looking at?

--------------------
I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances


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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
Re: 92L Track [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45809 - Thu Jul 28 2005 02:59 PM

Interesting Discussion from Melbourne NWS on future of 92L:

MON-THU...BERMUDA RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG 30-32N WITH DRYING INDICATED
BY GFS DUE TO BACKING FLOW. SUBSIDENT REGION ASCD WITH APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE BAHAMAS IS ALSO SHOWN DRYING OUT AIRMASS. WILL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL TC FORMATION E-SE OF THE
BAHAMAS. LATEST RUN OF GFS INDICATES REDEVELOPMENT OF RIDGE ACROSS N
FL FROM TUE ONWARD WHICH WL KEEP WAVE OR CYCLONE ON GENERAL WNW
HEADING THRU THE MIDDLE OF WEEK...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECM HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING ALL ALONG. STAY TUNED.

--------------------
RJB


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MikeC]
      #45810 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:03 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45811 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:08 PM

I live on the west coast of florida; 50 miles south of Tampa.......how significant is that to 92L?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: damejune2]
      #45814 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:10 PM

Heck, even if the storm hits the east coast of florida it could be bad here.....last year the two systems that hit the east coast were so strong when they made landfall that the storm was still CAT 2 or CAT 3 when it went north of my area. Anyone have any ideas on 92L and it's intensity as it gets closer to the Bahamas?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: damejune2]
      #45818 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:36 PM

im thinking as it aproaches the bahaamas it could be a cat. 1 or 2 storm at most, what do other people think

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Ryan]
      #45819 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:38 PM

Well then if it crosses Florida like Jeanne did, then by the time it gets near Tampa, it should be weakened enough.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Excellent IWIN Discussion [Re: damejune2]
      #45820 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:40 PM

The Following Discussion was issued by Rob & Jason (and a tip of the cap to our budd, Kevin) over at IWIC...sums up the current situation pretty well:

"IWIC Worldwide Tropical Weather Discussion - July 28 2005 - 22:00 UTC

Tropical Storm Franklin has made a bit of a comeback today. Convection has flared a bit closer to the center and the cloud pattern has become slightly better organized. An additional 5-10KT increase in strength is very possible before the storm becomes carried northward by an upper trough. On this projected track, the storm should stay well offshore the US east coast.

A large-amplitude tropical wave, INVEST 92L, and associated broad 1013MB low is approaching 50W. The low is currently positioned on the southern end of the wave axis, however visible imagery depicts greater low-level curvature further north. Furthermore, dry Saharan Air is still wrapped within the wave, particularly on the northern side, which is keeping convective flare-ups to a minimum. Thus, the system still needs to consolidate more and enter a more unstable environment before development becomes an imminent concern. Having said this, conditions become increasingly more favorable closer to the Windward islands and all the way to the Bahamas. Oceanic heat content is high, coinciding with unseasonably warm sea-surface temperatures. Upper-level wind shear is on the low side, with the core westerly winds from the subtropical jet remaining well to the north. In fact, the latest CIMSS GOES-12 analysis indicates ridging is slowly increasing aloft the wave. Moreover, the influence of the Saharan Air Layer is lessening as it progresses further west. All of this data suggests that while the wave is far from being a classified tropical cyclone, further organization and increasing convection seems likely over the next few days. Given the extent of the environmental favorability where 92L is headed, a tropical depression cannot be ruled out within the next 48-60 hours.

INVEST 92L is moving generally west-northwestward. Global model guidance is rather converged on the projected track. The 12Z NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC, and ECMWF plus 18Z GFS all show a continued west-northwest motion through or just north of the Leeward Islands over the next 48 hours and then passing in the vicinity of the Bahamas by the end of the forecast period. Once near the Bahamas on Day Six, models vary on the precise alignment and strength of the ridge weakness over the eastern US and the ridge itself. The ECMWF, usually a reasonable medium-range model, takes the system all the way into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. Although it is somewhat of an outlier and no other model seems to show as intense of a ridge as the ECMWF depicts, it is worth noting the strong right bias in the model consensus for storms in this area during 2004 and early this season. The GFS slows it down in the Bahamas under supposedly collapsed steering currents, similar to what recently took place with Franklin the same area earlier last week, whereas the others show what seems to be a straight shot to somewhere along the southeast US coast beyond the runs' time frames. Development from this area is not a certainty, though the chance is very much there. IF this does consolidate and become a tropical cyclone, conditions should favor quicker intensification once in the Bahamas and we could be faced with a hurricane threat. "If" is the key word.

Behind INVEST 92L, another tropical wave and mid-level center is noted, dubbed INVEST 93L. This system looked very well organized for a brief time late last night but has since become weaker. First off, the wave is not high-amplitude like the one discussed above, thus making it more susceptible to unfavorable conditions. Convection is sporadic in nature and there are no signs of either a surface low or a ridge aloft. Although sea surface temperatures are warm, this system is experiencing increased shear from the upper-level anticyclone to the west. As this ridge continues to build aloft 92L, this hinderance may only worsen with time. Furthermore, 93L is under moderate Saharan Air Layer influence from the north and east. Global models are not aggressive on developing the storm; none show anything more than a weak low in the shadows of a stronger system over the next six days. It is possible that some slow development could occur once and if the system can achieve a low-level circulation, though even so, anything significant seems unlikely. The future track is a moot point given the low prospects, but if a storm were to develop it would likely follow west-northwestward on the heels of the wave discussed above.

Yet another area of convection has emerged off the coast of Africa, behind both aformentioned INVESTs. This has not yet been identified in association with a tropical wave, but is rather a result of the intertropical convergence zone. Today's runs of the GFS and NOGAPS indicate this will become a tropical cyclone in the forecast period as it too moves west-northwestward. No other model has yet shown any significant development, so there is not a convincing consensus at this time. One plus for this system is that it is at a relatively low latitude, which may prevent it from experiencing the core of the Saharan Air Layer. Since conditions are apparently not that unfavorable, this system will be monitored as it traverses the tropical Atlantic.

Some global models are hinting at increased low-level vorticity in the northern Gulf of Mexico on the tail end of a trough split in the next 4-5 days. None develop a true tropical cyclone, and any low that does form would probably have to work hard to make it to the surface, not to mention it would be a primarily baroclinic origination. This will too be watched, though nothing is expected at this time."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Prediction [Re: MikeC]
      #45821 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:45 PM Attachment (108 downloads)

Tropical Depression in 12-24 Hours and tropical storm by 48 hours. Do you see the warm water this thing is going to run into at the current model runs. I think that 70MPH is a little conservative at 120 HRS.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #45822 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:51 PM

that is a really good discussion, thanks Phil.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic *DELETED* [Re: MikeC]
      #45823 - Thu Jul 28 2005 03:55 PM

Post deleted...sent to the graveyard

Please refrain from this type of post, unless you are prepared to back it up with a source, link, model or other tangible proof...

Edited by LI Phil (Thu Jul 28 2005 04:09 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45824 - Thu Jul 28 2005 04:00 PM

nvm

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Thu Jul 28 2005 04:13 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 423
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Excellent IWIN Discussion [Re: LI Phil]
      #45826 - Thu Jul 28 2005 04:12 PM

It's too soon but I would like to hear JB's take on these developments. (92L and 93L and soon to be 94L)

--------------------
________2014 Forecast: 10/4/1________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT 41.80N 73.13W
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Ryan]
      #45827 - Thu Jul 28 2005 04:15 PM

Ryan - This is meant to be funny, so.....with the new info out about the atlantic and how since 1995 it's been busy and will be for another 10-20 years, i'd say to tell your folks to stay put. Unless they plan on living here Oct-May.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: damejune2]
      #45828 - Thu Jul 28 2005 04:19 PM

yea ill tell them to get a winter house..ill say your not allowed..haha that should be good

the thought of an active 10-20 years makes me cringee

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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