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Atlantic Slow again, but watching a wave in the central Atlantic (20% Chance to develop within 5 days)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL 27.47N 82.53W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: AndyG]
      #45513 - Tue Jul 26 2005 07:55 PM

Atlantic waves

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: AndyG]
      #45514 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:05 PM

per the Navy site, we now have 93L

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Invest. 93L is here [Re: MikeC]
      #45515 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:18 PM

I was checking out the NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone Page and I found Invest 93L. You can find this at the follwing link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...DISPLAY=Animate

Comments?
Look impressive to me.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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AndyG
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 35
Loc: Bradenton, FL 27.47N 82.53W
Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45516 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:25 PM

Yeah, current bid is 3. Do I hear 4?

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: AndyG]
      #45517 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:28 PM

Yikes 92 and 93 invest... not to mention the conga line still on Africa. Looks like stuff's about to really hit the fan.

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45518 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:29 PM

Interesting set of maps

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_bw.gif

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Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: AndyG]
      #45519 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:31 PM Attachment (119 downloads)

That's tomorrow... lol

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Franklin [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #45520 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:31 PM

Franklin should be a little stronger at 11PM about 45MPH or maybe 50MPH, looks to be N or NNW. Once it started to move again. Track seems to be on target.

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abyrd
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 61
Loc: apopka 28.67N 81.48W
Re: Invest. 93L is here [Re: WX Storm 2005]
      #45521 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:32 PM

It's not just Miami talking about influence from the tropics. Here's Melbourne's discussion.
OF NOTE IS THAT MOST OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME
SORT OF DISTURBANCE WNW FROM THE TROPICS TWD CUBA/BAHAMAS BY DAYS
6-7. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF SUCH A FEATURE
IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERROR. NEVERTHELESS IT MAY WIND UP BEING
SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45522 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:37 PM Attachment (156 downloads)

Here is the latest SCATT of invest 93L as an attachment.

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45523 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:41 PM

I'm pretty much in line with what HF posted a little while ago, but wanted to add a couple of things....

* The feature east of Bermuda projected to develop appears to have support in the models for some sort of hybrid structure, at least early on, maybe trending a little more towards a tropical nature well down the line. Model depictions of a tropical cyclone not withstanding, it's one to watch in about 4 days. Most likely scenario has it just spinning around as a hybrid cyclone, keeping a weakness in the subtropical ridge that anything developed might - or might not - catch.
* Out into the east Atlantic, I still think that the wave that is now 93L -- the wave between 20-25W from my outlook early this morning -- is the better candidate for development over the next couple of days. The NHC and NRL are just starting to track it, with the former noting a strong mid-level feature but not much of a surface one yet; then again, that's how a lot of these things get started. If the current organization holds overnight and into tomorrow, I figure we'll have a TD out of it by sometime Thursday.
* 92L is just starting to perk up again (the further west wave from this morning's outlook), but I feel it's too broad and too tied up in dry air for any rapid development. Figure this one will have a shot in the 3-4 day time frame, likely as a storm that doesn't catch the weakness in the ridge and has the greater shot to impact land...if it does develop.
* Wave behind 93L just coming off of the coast has a shot like 93L does -- but it needs to stick around the coast for a little while or it might get impacted by the development of 93L. Nevertheless, count on this one likely becoming 94L in a day or two, with the potential for development in the 3-4 day time frame as well. No telling what it might or might not do from there.

It's going to be an active start to August, I'm afraid, and we may well end up with 8 named systems in the basin before 2004 even saw 1. Once Alex came along, however, things really got kicking...might see something like that again this year (activity-wise, not track-wise for now). I think the talk of blowing past our seasonal record is overblown, but we could get close to 20.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45525 - Tue Jul 26 2005 08:55 PM

20? Thats incredible. I saw that the SHIPS model brings 92L to minimum hurricane strength in 5 days. Is that true?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 995
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45526 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:06 PM

You realize that 5 days is the 31st of July, and that 93L looks better organized and currently strongerthan 92L - I wonder if we will have 9 named storms for just the month of July.

That is of course assuming that not the wave over the Carribean and none of the new ones coming off Africa form Tropical Storms by then and we have even more...

Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Jul 26 2005 09:09 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45527 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:07 PM

Well, only time will tell on that one! It might, it might not...would trend not unless it gets organized in the next two days, but it has a shot. 93L has the better shot, IMO.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45528 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:17 PM

I'm better off keeping my mouth shut I mention the wave at this afternoon and now it's 93L. Oh well.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 757
Loc: Lauderdale-By- the- Sea,Fl 26.19N 80.10W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45529 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:23 PM

Clark,Do you see anything that could slow this crazy hurricane season down in August or September?This is getting a little scary if you live on the coast.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45530 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:25 PM

If I read the Tropical Weather Discussion at 8:05 right, 92L is heading into an environment more conducive to moisture and convective development. I guess we will have to wait and see on that one.


BTW, I need a break from this season already. Updating my site is sometimes an annoying pain in the you know what. Well, besides that, I want a break from updating it almost all the time. But, the people must have their information.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Oops [Re: Old Sailor]
      #45531 - Tue Jul 26 2005 09:29 PM

The 1012 mb Low depicted in the NCEP maps, over the Andros Island area, should be part of a TUTT Low that HPC included in yesterday's? Discussion.

I'll see if I can find that link.
It wasn't progged to do much more than change the moisture levels and precipitable water levels.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005 edited~danielw

...A TUTT EXTENDING FROM A LOW ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA SOUTHWEST TO NICARAGUA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TUTT LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 21N 72W BY 24 HRS...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N 76W BY 48 HRS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 72 HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 26 2005 09:40 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #45535 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:19 PM

Quote:

BTW, I need a break from this season already.




i knoww right..and i havent even been in one and imm sick of it

gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Ryan]
      #45536 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:31 PM

Quote:

i know right..and i havent even been in one and im sick of it.

gosh, the fact that the next storm will be Harvey scares me....H already!?!?




On that note...I walked back into the room and TWC was showing the "Next List". Alpha, Beta...
That's the list they use After the current list of 24 names is exhausted.
Hope to never See an ALPHA. Except in the Archives of Old Storms.

Edited by danielw (Tue Jul 26 2005 10:33 PM)


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