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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45537 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:34 PM

And I thought they would go to double letter names

Like Aardvark, BB Gun, etc


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45538 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:34 PM

Count me in on that count, Daniel.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45540 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:42 PM

ftlaudbob -- only time will tell. Water temperatures should remain above-average across the basin through the season; what will play a determining role are dry air/dust outbreaks and upper-level winds. I don't see the latter having a large impact, so we'll likely just see activity come and go in spurts for the rest of the season. We average about 7 named storms after August 1st; that'd take us to 14 on the season...don't see any reason why we shouldn't at least get to that point.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Clark]
      #45542 - Tue Jul 26 2005 10:54 PM

Just a curiosity:

I know that dust from the Sahara helps dampen storm development. Does volcanic dust also cause the same effect?


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45543 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:40 PM

The list only contains 21 names(no Q,U,X,Y,orZ) and the way this year is going it is a good chance we will see Alpha.

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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
List [Re: Lisa NC]
      #45544 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:44 PM

Thanks Lisa, I was trying to remember of the top of my head.
I should have looked it up.
Anything past ' H ' is too much this year!


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45545 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:46 PM

Could someone please take a look at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html near 70W, 23N and tell me what the dark round area could mean??? It currently seems to moving slowly northwards. Water vapor appears to be feeding into it or perhaps even streaking into it from virtually every direction. It also seems to getting smaller. Thanks!!!

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45546 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:52 PM

Quote:

Just a curiosity:

I know that dust from the Sahara helps dampen storm development. Does volcanic dust also cause the same effect?




I would think so. This is more of a Met question.
Typically, volcanic ash has a finer particle size than sand does.
I would think that ash would be a bit more abrasive, and slightly corrosive. If the ash is damp or wet.
Hence the Flight Precautions to aircraft after an Ash Cloud release.
Terra, and the Mets would have a better answer.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Spoken]
      #45547 - Tue Jul 26 2005 11:55 PM

Quote:

Could someone please take a look at http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html near 70W, 23N and tell me what the dark round area could mean??? It currently seems to moving slowly northwards. Water vapor appears to be feeding into it or perhaps even streaking into it from virtually every direction. It also seems to getting smaller. Thanks!!!




I believe that's the TUTT Low that HPC was referring to.
A few posts back, I posted part of the HPC Discussion from earlier today. That's the area they were talking about.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #45548 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:02 AM

that black thing u see it looks like dry air

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: danielw]
      #45549 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:07 AM

Thank you! I'm quite new to this.

Would it be typical then for such a low east of the Bahamas to "draw streams of moisture into itself" (seemingly against prevailing winds) all the way from the coast of Belize?

Again thanks!!


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: hurricane expert]
      #45550 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:09 AM

Quote:

that black thing u see it looks like dry air




I believe that's the TUTT Low that HPC was referring to.
A few posts back, I posted part of the HPC Discussion from earlier today. That's the area they were talking about.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/bias/


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: here comes the cv season [Re: Spoken]
      #45551 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:12 AM

Also that dry spot appears to be sucking up rather a lot of what what that silly Franklin has recently been throwing away to the east.

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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #45553 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:56 AM

Fascinating stuff! I've been watching quite a bit of water vapor 'disappearing' into an oblong counter-clockwise-looking spiraled-area (centered pretty much over and/or north of Hispaniola) for a few days now, although it hasn't seemed to look so much like a 'black hole' until sometime today. If this TUTT feature works to keep storms from intensifying that's certainly neat, as long as it doesn't develop a mind of its own I suppose. And thanks very much!

You are Welcome. Hope it helped.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Jul 27 2005 12:59 AM)


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WX Storm 2005
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 14
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Forcast Model's on 93L? [Re: MikeC]
      #45554 - Wed Jul 27 2005 02:42 AM Attachment (170 downloads)

Does anyone have any forcast models on 93L yet. I know it just missed the last model. but, if anyone does happen to have one let me know..... thanks... I attached the lates IR of 93L. I have a feeling about this one.....

--------------------
Nathan Fairman
Nfairman@adelphia.net
Natedogg3L - Aim


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Spoken
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Re: Franklin Continues, Waves Across the Atlantic [Re: Spoken]
      #45555 - Wed Jul 27 2005 03:09 AM

Hmmm… now I have a different concern. While it's comforting to know that this TUTT is unlikely to become the mother of all hurricanes (in as much as that's precisely the sort of thing it's working against) could it ever become the mother of all garden hoses?

It looks to me as if a portion of the 'missing moisture' is occasionally watering the Everglades. And thus Franklin might not actually have to turn around to cause problems for interests in Florida and elsewhere. He might merely need to prime the pump - for a fire hose, so to speak - through which a significant portion of the various 'big waves' end up getting sprayed (here and there, so to speak).

I mean, whatever moisture Franklin didn't end up getting would still seemingly have to go somewhere, and seemingly rather quickly, if this TUTT feature keeps siphoning off seemingly so much of the stuff from so many different places. Sorry if I seem like an alarmist but this is still new to me. Plus I'd hopefully always care about another community's major issues.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Spoken]
      #45556 - Wed Jul 27 2005 05:42 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 edited~danielw

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS...UPPER-AIR TIMESECTIONS FROM DAKAR AND SAL...AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS SW OF THE CAPE VERDES IS A REFLECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SMALLER IN AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE ONE SOON TO EMERGE OFF WEST AFRICA. MOST OF THE SIGNAL OF THE WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH ONLY A SMALL SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED...
THOUGH THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY WAVE RECENTLY HAS BEEN A CANDIDATE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR MORE REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST RATHER THAN LATE IN JULY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N41W TO 14N44W TO 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 11N45W TO 7N46W MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LARGER WAVE CIRCULATION BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY WITH A PRECEDING "TAIL" OF MOISTURE ENTERING TOMORROW.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270633.shtml?


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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: danielw]
      #45557 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:09 AM

What’s the longest a storm has maintained "storm" status..... Franklin is going on a week now..…

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Westward movement? [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45558 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:23 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Sure looks like the percieved Center of Franklin is about to cross 70W
Should be interesting if it continues.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45559 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:29 AM

I think quite a bit more than that. Most storms that form in them mid-atlantic take about a week before landfall, and some of them have stalled and sat spinning for a while. An example of a fairly long storm last year was Jeanne which developed on the 14th and didn't dissapte until the 28th - 14 days. An even better example is Kyle from 2002 which developed on the 21st and didn't dissapate until the 12th, or 21 days later. Franklin isn't anywhere near any of these in length.

I don't exactly want to spend the day studying old storm tracks to grab their dates - if anyone knows of what the record is please post


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