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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Waves in the Atlantic [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45560 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:33 AM

I'm looking at the SAL product and it looks like the dust is fast breaking apart in the mid-Atlantic. This could allow that first wave to develop a lot more, and is unlikely to inhibit the new(er) waves off Africa

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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Random Chaos]
      #45561 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:36 AM

That works for me !.... I was just curious... Thanks

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45562 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:40 AM

Good Morning. Although the coordinates say north on Franklin, the wv loop looks like he is moving due west the skew and all that jazz. I do have a question of those in the know. Is the Channel 4 satellite broken? It is my favorite for a quick look. The pix are stuck on July 24. I have looked for a status report and can not find one.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45563 - Wed Jul 27 2005 07:49 AM

Quote:

What’s the longest a storm has maintained "storm" status..... Franklin is going on a week now..…




Ganked from http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/2002end.htm:
Kyle lasted for 23 days.

Kyle was the third longest storm since 1871 behind Ginger in 1971 which lasted 31 days and Igna in 1969 which lasted 25 days. Carrie in 1957 lasted 23 days as well. Since 1871 there have been eight storms which lasted 20 days more.

That was as of 2002. Not sure if anything has been longer since.

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Shalafi]
      #45564 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:12 AM

Nothing longer (in the Atlantic at least) since 2002. I checked the NHC charts for 2002, 2003, and 2004 - and Kyle was by far the longest.

Here's Ginger: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1971/ginger/prelim06.gif
(hard to read)

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Jul 27 2005 08:54 AM)


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zacros
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #45565 - Wed Jul 27 2005 08:56 AM

Is Frankin finally beginning to split as mentioned in some earlier posts by HankFrank? Looking at the visual sat, the center looks to be around 36N; however, the main convection is to south, closer to the NHC's center at 33N. What is going on? It looks to me like the main area of convection is beginning to move back to the west and pull away from the remainder of the storm to the north. Are my observations correct?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: zacros]
      #45566 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:04 AM

well, the official had it 'splitting' too. it'll probably fire up new convection near the center later on. some of what it's leaving may get entrained into the weakness/collection point near the bahamas over the next couple of days.. along with the weak disturbance near 20/60 moving wnw. GFS/nam have a discontinuous-looking feature moving up the east coast around the weekend out of this thing. the 92L disturbance has two main vorticity lobes to it... the one to the south or the one to the north can develop... it's starting to look like the northern piece will. 93L behind it is undergoing some easterly shear from the ridging building to the north, but should continue to slowly organize. the waves are spaced by about 12/13 degrees.. enough so that they shouldn't intermingle. new wave coming off looks ok too and 06Z GFS develops it also. still a lot of variety on the projected deep layer low in the east central atlantic... some showing it in a sharp trough that may preclude tropical nature. others show it developing like a cutoff hybrid low. there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july


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TAZMAN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 48
Loc: Clermont, Fl
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: HanKFranK]
      #45567 - Wed Jul 27 2005 09:30 AM

Quote:

there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july




TWC discussed this late last night and said it was mid level and nothing to be concerned about....... personaly I will watch them all


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MapMaster
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: TAZMAN]
      #45569 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:44 AM

Over 30 days....

MM


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: MapMaster]
      #45570 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:51 AM

Hey Colleen - where are ya???

I feel as though I have been hit over the head with a 2X4. My sinuses are giving me a fit. I feel like my head is going to explode. something blooming that I am not aware of?

Hot here and how come it feels hotter than what they say it is?


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: MapMaster]
      #45571 - Wed Jul 27 2005 10:57 AM

The African dust should not inhibit the waves from developing. I am wondering if there has been any additional prediction updates based on the new British model. Also, Dr. Gray should update his forecast around August 1st. The newspaper reported up to 22 named storms this year. Wow.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Liz
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 31
Loc: Daytona Beach, Florida
Re: What is it? [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #45572 - Wed Jul 27 2005 11:42 AM

Was just looking at the sats. Noticed a small formation of clouds just off the GA/SC coast, around 32N,78W. Anyone else see this?

Liz


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: What is it? [Re: Liz]
      #45574 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:04 PM

Nothing to worry about there; it's likely just normal daytime convection firing over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

92L is pretty reminiscient of the wave that came before it, except with a bit more convection on its periphery. It's very broad and still in with a bit of dry air, so it's going to take some time to get going. 93L is still there, though it lost some convection earlier today. If that pops back, we'll restart the counter. That one has to maintain convection or, given it's weaker surface signature, will likely fade away. Still, I think it's the better bet of the two.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: NHC 2 AM Discussion [Re: Katie]
      #45575 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:04 PM

Hey I have trick sinuses too! Mine have not been bothering me too much today - but with bein' pregnant and all - my system is really out of whack - ao I am not sure if my weather predicting nostrils are in tune

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: What is it? [Re: Liz]
      #45576 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:06 PM

Not to be snobby, but isn't it a bit alarmist to be thinking every single thing of cloud formations this year is going to be a Tropical System?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: What is it? [Re: Clark]
      #45577 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:08 PM

Joe B. is getting excited about this in his Wed. video.Does not look like much to me.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: What is it? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45578 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:18 PM

Quote:

Joe B. is getting excited about this in his Wed. video.Does not look like much to me.




That's what I thought too, but the way the season is going you never know. It seems like I could forget to check a TWO or TWD, and the next thing I know there are 1 or 2 named storms churning. Craziness.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Wed Jul 27 2005 12:25 PM)


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Watching..Waiting [Re: AgentB]
      #45579 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:34 PM

i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: Ryan]
      #45581 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:52 PM

Quote:

i have a feeling that one of the three waves wil develope by the close of the weekend


I think that is a good bet.But today I don't have to worry about any storms,and that is a good thing.Local tv here is saying the first wave should affect us here Sun or Mon,it what form?,That is the question.Anyone have any ideas about development on the first wave?

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Watching..Waiting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #45582 - Wed Jul 27 2005 12:57 PM

i think the first may develope but as of right now, the second wave looks more favorable for developement...any other thoughts anyone?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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