Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Perhaps it's just my eyes, but could someone knowledgeable explain why 92 looks better now... when it's over Hispaniola... than it did over open water?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I don't see anything, but.....
TRAINING CELLS ARE MOVING OVER PALM BEACH WATERS AND ONSHORE BETWEEN BOCA RATON AND WEST PALM BEACH. THIS HAS PROMPTED SOME CONCERN ABOUT MINOR FLOODING.
OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FROM NASSAU TO FREEPORT.
THIS HINTS AT WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...COMPLETE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS CONVECTION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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yeah I was just watching that loop, it does have more convection now than it did yesterday afternoon when it "almost" formed an LLC.... and its been over the DR/H all day....
the GOM system is non existant at the moment... 93L is also losing quite a bit of its convection this evening in the southern part but convection busting loose on the northern end as it approaches the islands...
regardless none of em appear to be in any hurry to develop, if they ever develop..... slow night in the tropics....
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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92L is getting a boost from the daytime convective cycle over Hispaniola and from diffluent flow aloft in association with the upper low just to its north. It's got much more convection n association with it, but that's about it.
I'm not sure what the NWS is getting at with those winds down in South Florida. All of the other South Florida reporting stations along both coasts show offshore winds, indicative of the nighttime land breeze becoming established. The slight turning in the winds could be an indicator of the approaching rain band from the east, but the QuikSCAT pass from just a couple of hours ago shows nothing significant. Wouldn't worry about it.
93L looks a bit better organized this evening; while the convective tops are cooling a little near the center of the mid-level feature, the banding structures are becoming better defined on IR satellite imagery. A QuikSCAT pass from about 5hr ago suggests a weak circulation center was forming near 10N/57W, or about where the convective complex was at that time. Convection to the north is firing along an outflow boundary put down by the convection that was around 14N/53W earlier this afternoon and isn't too much to worry about. Expect things to go slowly.
Before, I had said that recon would go out there if the convection held up and the low-level center stuck around. Well, in the two frames after I initially posted this, the convection almost entirely went kaput. It's gotta make a recovery overnight to see recon out there tomorrow...long-term the prospects for development are still there, but something needs to stick consistently. Seeing the outflow boundary go out earlier isn't necessarily all bad -- the whole setup fits well with one of the researched theories of tropical development -- but beyond that, I still need to see more to be bullish again on this one.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
Edited by Clark (Sat Jul 30 2005 10:49 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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the area of convection off the SE coast of FL is associated with an ULL which is evident on the water vapor loop... radar loop out of the keys also shows poorly defined associated circulation
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John C
Unregistered
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Still gone for most of the weekend, but Gert was the last storm for July. Neither of the waves will devellop before the end of the Month. And this is a very good thing.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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93L is looking very impressive on the IR this am.... if recon goes in today its possible they may find something later this afternoon... 93L may not develop today but looking at it at the moment it sure gives every indication its probably going to develop, sooner rather than later...
92L has lost its convection overnight after an early evening flare up..... lets see if it can make a comeback today ...
GOM this am is firing up some convection centered about 215 miles south of Pens ...... quickscat data (could only get the western side of the GOM) indicates some w and sw winds that could be feeding into the area of convection building up in the GOM... long range radar also hints of come rotation, but it being so far out its not conclusive...
perhaps a little home brew for us to watch for...
perhaps not...
its only a matter of time before something busts loose....
and my give a damn is NOT busted.... :
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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The TPC Discussion gives it little weight this morning though...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ACTIVITY WHICH HAS WEAKENED IS
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.
I thought it looked a little better then advertised above and it looks like the shear could be lessoning in the Caribbean in the next day or so, based on some of the Shear Maps I have seen this morning. Maybe one of you more educated guys or gals could comment on the shear because I by no means am an expert. The environment does not look ideal, but I think the Recon will go unless 93L just dies this morning.
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Jara
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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92L is so shot that the moved Floater1 to 93L. I think I got that right. Floater2 was moved to former Franklin. 
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I dont think that is former Franklin
I think it is the wave at 30/40
Well I guess it is not a wave....
but anyway it is not Franklin
definitely not a tropical wave... it's a deep upper low with a surface reflection. may be going a little bit hybrid... -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Jul 31 2005 11:55 AM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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I guess it is not looking that good as the Recon has been canceled. Oh well....we shall wait and see what happens...
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Jara
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ideas a lot of us had here since mid-week have failed to verify. the kind of presentation waves were giving last week, any time during the last month would have implied an imminent system. there's more shear in the basin now, however.. and with negative (not in a quick pulse, just sort of stuck there) the basin may stay slow for the near future. there isn't a golden lining to that trend, however.. this is probably the leading downturn effect of an pulse that will get across to cause trouble in a few days to a couple weeks.
92L is being discredited in the recent , but the trailing part of the wave (which has been ne of the focal area we've had for days) is now north of puerto rico and still has an upper anticyclone and surface trough associated. conditions aren't ideal, but this could still continue to fester. globals showing it not moving much for the early part of the week, then taking off ne out to sea. some models still showing westward movement but little development.
93L isn't showing well on the models at all but still looks to have a surface low... though disorganized and moving west at a decent clip. recon was skipped today (there will be SFC obs from the islands) but still pending for tomorrow. the eastern caribbean is usually not storm-friendly.. but there is an upper high over this system and if it slows down it has every chance to develop.
weak surface trough in the ne gulf too close to land to do much. some models still show a low riding out off the nc coast ahead of a shortwave... dubious nature and not a land threat should something tropical try to assemble.
the non-tropical low near 30/45 has a convective ball near its center and may be trying to hybridize... that'll happen if the convection lingers. this cut-off has already dived to its lowest latitude and is starting to rise north into the atlantic... slowly. the SSTs are marginal and will get cooler.. so if something came out of this it would probably be labeled 'subtropical'.
african waves depressed in latitude and not perky. shows the region reactivating after the coming week. will see.
HF 1614z31july
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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93L might get it together.
In Trinidad:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html
We almost have W wind:
Conditions at Jul 31, 2005 - 11:00 AM EDTJul 31, 2005 - 10:00 AM CDTJul 31, 2005 - 09:00 AM MDTJul 31, 2005 - 08:00 AM PDTJul 31, 2005 - 07:00 AM ADTJul 31, 2005 - 06:00 AM HDT
2005.07.31 1500 UTC
Wind from the SSW (210 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Grenada has West wind:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TGPY.html
Wind from the W (280 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
In Antigua we have a East Wind:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)
I'd say something could spin up between the two Islands.
HF your thought.
:?:
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Sure looks like it from Space.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Well island reports dont necessarily show if there is a true west wind unless more then 1 shows it. Beach you are correct though cause there are 3 islands showing more then 1 hour of a W or SSW wind. 92l had a west wind in the islands also but only for a hour then switched direction,..small vortex or just wind coming in the channel from the sea or near a mountain pass redirecting the wind. That happens alot near reported areas.
Again though now with 93L more then 1 island is showing a W or SSW wind for more then a hour or 2. Visible imagery also show a broad circulation but hard to pinpoint how much of a west wind there is. Anyways recon (disapointedly) didnt go out probably cause there was no pressure falls late last night into the morning. Infact pressures went up ( like they do at sunrise). If there is a circulation ,,its fluctuating between 1011-1012. I would suggest the low is just NE of Grenada moving W or WNW near 290dg. Upper level winds are quite favorible for development but it doesnt have model support. Its pretty much a wait and see event. Should continue its path for the next 2 days.
92L is right on path, just never developed due to shear. Should cross florida on Tuesday as expected.
scottsvb
Edited by scottsvb (Sun Jul 31 2005 01:36 PM)
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Thanks Scott for your thoughts on my question 
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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slightly different take on 93L. visibles and SFC obs have me thinking the center of the broad low is a little south of barbados. thats a little south of where most of the convection has been going off. a lot of that has blown off to the w and nw... a low level gyre is visible now that they're sliding away. the end effect isn't much different than what scott was alluding to, though. there does seem to be a low there, but it's weak.
92L's emphasis has shifted to what was the northeastern part of the disturbance... the convective blow up which has consistently been stuck behind and poleward of where the low had been trying to form. now it's the only game in town as the part over the islands has pretty much quit. ridging is still trying to nudge in over this thing.. the upper low to the west is slowly sliding wsw... and if the trough associated with it starts to pinch off it should become more of an aid than an impediment. not sure if there's enough mid-level ridge to keep it moving west... lot of the models are turning it up as a shortwave is forecast to dig in for a spell mid-week off the east coast. really not sure.. it might keep trudging west, too. the upper air environment should slowly improve.. eventually. we've been expecting that for days, but that upper low has been persistent.
the gulf and central atlantic features don't seem to be doing much. disturbed weather keeps persisting near the nc coast, but that's up and out if it ever closes off.. and wouldn't be very substantial.
HF 2020z31july
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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In Trinidad:
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 31 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NW 6
Grenada:
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 31 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) N 5
1 PM (17) Jul 31 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) W 8
Saint Lucia :
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 31 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 12 light rain
Just a Point:
These two Islands are close:Saint Lucia & Vigie, Saint Lucia
One has wind out of the Wind from the SSW (200 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT
and one Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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The trade winds, run from 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon on the windward Islands, at this time I don't see anything that would call a a closed LLC....................
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Looks like we have a horse race between 92L 93L and 94L The winner gets a trip to Disney World (right?)
Oh well, here is hoping there are a lot of fish out there.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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